307
FXUS63 KGLD 240930
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA. BITTER COLD WIND CHILL
READINGS AS LOW AS 20 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SIMILAR WIND CHILL READINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST
TONIGHT FOR NORTHWEST KS, WHERE PERIODS OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LITTLE OR NO BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED.
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON ANY SNOW
COVERED ROADS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
AT ~08 UTC (~1 AM MST) THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR GOVE/GRAHAM
COUNTIES WAS DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS INDICATE PREDOMINANTLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND VISIBILITIES GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 3
MILES, WITH ISOLATED/OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS TO 1-2 MILES. AS OF
08 UTC, DISPATCHERS AT LOGAN/GOVE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES ESTIMATED
1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.. WHICH LINES UP PRETTY WELL
WITH WHAT WE CAN TELL FROM KDOT WEBCAMS. CURRENT AND RECENT RUNS
OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP, SUGGEST
THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED (IN THE GOODLAND
CWA).. AND THAT FURTHER ACCUMULATION ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL BE MODEST AND GRADUAL IN
NATURE.
DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED DOWNGRADE AND ADJUSTMENT TO
SNOW TOTALS (REFER TO WSWGLD), WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS/MESSAGING
HAVE NOT CHANGED.. I.E. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SNOW COVERED ROADS THROUGHOUT THE ADVISORY AREA..
AND E TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT 5-10 MPH (LITTLE OR NO
BLOWING SNOW).
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS-IS THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY. DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND FRESH SNOW COVER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING MAY SUPPORT SIMILARLY COLD WIND CHILL
READINGS. WITH THIS IN MIND, THE ONGOING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED (IN-TIME).
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO START WITH SOME
WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS ON MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE
AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE
WITH SUNNY SKIES AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THAT BEING SAID, LOCALES
CLOSER TO CENTRAL KANSAS MAY STILL HAVE SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND
AND ONLY WARM INTO THE 30S.
TUESDAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A LARGER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE
TROUGH STILL OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. WITH THIS, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. DAYTIME
HIGHS MAY BE A BIT COOLER IF A SHORTWAVE CAN MOVE THROUGH THE
LARGER FLOW AS SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AND BRING SOME HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH.
WEDNESDAY, THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY FAVORING THE RIDGE SLIDING OVER
THE AREA WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST BEGINS SWINGING
THROUGH THE PLAINS. SHOULD THIS HOLD, TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB
INTO THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE OTHER LOW CHANCE
SCENARIO IS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH AMPLIFIES AND
SPEEDS UP, BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN
THIS SCENARIO, DAYTIME HIGHS WOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER AND WINDS A
LITTLE GUSTIER, WITH GUSTS NEARING 40-50 MPH AS THE FRONT
PASSES.
THURSDAY AND INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK IS WHERE MORE
UNCERTAINTY CREEPS IN. IF THE TROUGH DOES DIG WEST, THE END OF
THE WEEK SHOULD BE COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES PROBABLY AT OR BELOW
FREEZING TO END THE WEEK. OTHERWISE, THE NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM WOULD SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND BRING A COOL DOWN. IN
EITHER SCENARIO, NEITHER STRONG WINDS NOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO
BE A CONCERN WITH MOST GUIDANCE REMAINING DRY AND KEEPING WIND
GUSTS BELOW 45 MPH. THE ONLY POTENTIAL HAZARD RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO
BE THE RETURN OF VERY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVES TEENS
OR COOLER IF THE TROUGH GETS DEEP ENOUGH AND BRINGS A VERY COLD
AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW, ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT CHANCE
IS ABOUT 15%.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
FLIGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN VARIABLE AT KGLD AND KMCK AS LIGHT
SNOW LINGERING OVER THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TAF PERIOD.
CEILINGS ARE VARYING FROM VFR TO MVFR EARLY ON (2000-4000 FT
AGL), WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY PREVAILING AT MVFR (BRIEF
DROPS TO IFR). THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE FOR LIFR VISIBILITIES IF
A MODERATE POCKET OF SNOW WERE TO DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINALS,
BUT CHANCES ARE DECREASING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/OB TRENDS. THE
SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST AND SNOW/LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD START TO
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH TO
THE SOUTH. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHTER SNOW OR FLURRIES TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING IN KS, HOWEVER
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY AT THAT TIME.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...DR
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