645
FXUS63 KGLD 241714
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1014 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA. BITTER COLD WIND CHILL
READINGS AS LOW AS 20 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SIMILAR WIND CHILL READINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST
TONIGHT FOR NORTHWEST KS, WHERE PERIODS OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LITTLE OR NO BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED.
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON ANY SNOW
COVERED ROADS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT: AT ~08 UTC (~1 AM MST) THE WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR GOVE/GRAHAM COUNTIES WAS DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS
INDICATE PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 3 MILES, WITH ISOLATED/OCCASIONAL
REDUCTIONS TO 1-2 MILES. AS OF 08 UTC, DISPATCHERS AT LOGAN/GOVE
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES ESTIMATED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION.. WHICH LINES UP PRETTY WELL WITH WHAT WE CAN TELL
FROM KDOT WEBCAMS. CURRENT AND RECENT RUNS OF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE, SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP, SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED (IN THE GOODLAND CWA).. AND THAT FURTHER
ACCUMULATION ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SNOW WILL BE MODEST AND GRADUAL IN NATURE.
DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED DOWNGRADE AND ADJUSTMENT TO SNOW
TOTALS (REFER TO WSWGLD), WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS/MESSAGING HAVE
NOT CHANGED.. I.E. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON SNOW COVERED ROADS THROUGHOUT THE ADVISORY AREA.. AND E TO SE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT 5-10 MPH (LITTLE OR NO BLOWING
SNOW). THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS- IS
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SSE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES (SUN MORNING) WILL PROGRESS SE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN EVE-NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION.. MAINLY BETWEEN ~21Z SUN AND ~06Z
MON (~2-11P MST SUN). HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (HRRR, RAP, NAM
NEST, RDPS) IS SIMILAR IN THE SENSE THAT [1] VIRTUALLY ALL
SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUM (A DUSTING
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH) AND [2] THAT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST IN NORTHEAST CO AND ADJACENT KS-NE
BORDER COUNTIES. THE NAM NEST, A NOTABLE OUTLIER, SUGGESTS A
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER (2-3") AMOUNTS ON THE PALMER
DIVIDE IN WESTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY.. ALBEIT WITH POOR RUN-TO-
RUN CONTINUITY. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH (IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER WAVE) BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE (~06-12Z) MON MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A 10-20
MPH SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE MAY DEVELOP SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE
(~09-12Z MON).. AS ~1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD
FROM WESTERN KS INTO TX-OK.. AND THE MSLP GRADIENT ABRUPTLY
TIGHTENS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A COMPLEX FUNCTION OF CLOUD
COVER, SNOW COVER AND WIND. WIND CHILL READINGS AS COLD AS -10
TO -20F ARE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE
MON MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO START WITH SOME
WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS ON MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE
AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE
WITH SUNNY SKIES AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THAT BEING SAID, LOCALES
CLOSER TO CENTRAL KANSAS MAY STILL HAVE SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND
AND ONLY WARM INTO THE 30S.
TUESDAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A LARGER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE
TROUGH STILL OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. WITH THIS, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. DAYTIME
HIGHS MAY BE A BIT COOLER IF A SHORTWAVE CAN MOVE THROUGH THE
LARGER FLOW AS SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AND BRING SOME HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH.
WEDNESDAY, THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY FAVORING THE RIDGE SLIDING OVER
THE AREA WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST BEGINS SWINGING
THROUGH THE PLAINS. SHOULD THIS HOLD, TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB
INTO THE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE OTHER LOW CHANCE
SCENARIO IS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH AMPLIFIES AND
SPEEDS UP, BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN
THIS SCENARIO, DAYTIME HIGHS WOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER AND WINDS A
LITTLE GUSTIER, WITH GUSTS NEARING 40-50 MPH AS THE FRONT
PASSES.
THURSDAY AND INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK IS WHERE MORE
UNCERTAINTY CREEPS IN. IF THE TROUGH DOES DIG WEST, THE END OF
THE WEEK SHOULD BE COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES PROBABLY AT OR BELOW
FREEZING TO END THE WEEK. OTHERWISE, THE NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM WOULD SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND BRING A COOL DOWN. IN
EITHER SCENARIO, NEITHER STRONG WINDS NOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO
BE A CONCERN WITH MOST GUIDANCE REMAINING DRY AND KEEPING WIND
GUSTS BELOW 45 MPH. THE ONLY POTENTIAL HAZARD RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO
BE THE RETURN OF VERY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVES TEENS
OR COOLER IF THE TROUGH GETS DEEP ENOUGH AND BRINGS A VERY COLD
AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW, ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT CHANCE
IS ABOUT 15%.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF KGLD INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING SOUTH AND OUT OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...024
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