423
FXUS63 KGLD 241840
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1140 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA. BITTER COLD WIND CHILL
READINGS AS LOW AS 20 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SIMILAR WIND CHILL READINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST
TONIGHT FOR NORTHWEST KS, WHERE PERIODS OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LITTLE OR NO BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED.
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON ANY SNOW
COVERED ROADS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT: AT ~08 UTC (~1 AM MST) THE WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR GOVE/GRAHAM COUNTIES WAS DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS
INDICATE PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 3 MILES, WITH ISOLATED/OCCASIONAL
REDUCTIONS TO 1-2 MILES. AS OF 08 UTC, DISPATCHERS AT LOGAN/GOVE
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES ESTIMATED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION.. WHICH LINES UP PRETTY WELL WITH WHAT WE CAN TELL
FROM KDOT WEBCAMS. CURRENT AND RECENT RUNS OF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE, SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP, SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED (IN THE GOODLAND CWA).. AND THAT FURTHER
ACCUMULATION ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SNOW WILL BE MODEST AND GRADUAL IN NATURE.
DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED DOWNGRADE AND ADJUSTMENT TO SNOW
TOTALS (REFER TO WSWGLD), WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS/MESSAGING HAVE
NOT CHANGED.. I.E. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON SNOW COVERED ROADS THROUGHOUT THE ADVISORY AREA.. AND E TO SE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT 5-10 MPH (LITTLE OR NO BLOWING
SNOW). THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS- IS
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SSE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES (SUN MORNING) WILL PROGRESS SE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN EVE-NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION.. MAINLY BETWEEN ~21Z SUN AND ~06Z
MON (~2-11P MST SUN). HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (HRRR, RAP, NAM
NEST, RDPS) IS SIMILAR IN THE SENSE THAT [1] VIRTUALLY ALL
SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUM (A DUSTING
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH) AND [2] THAT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST IN NORTHEAST CO AND ADJACENT KS-NE
BORDER COUNTIES. THE NAM NEST, A NOTABLE OUTLIER, SUGGESTS A
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER (2-3") AMOUNTS ON THE PALMER
DIVIDE IN WESTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY.. ALBEIT WITH POOR RUN-TO-
RUN CONTINUITY. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH (IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER WAVE) BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE (~06-12Z) MON MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A 10-20
MPH SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE MAY DEVELOP SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE
(~09-12Z MON).. AS ~1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD
FROM WESTERN KS INTO TX-OK.. AND THE MSLP GRADIENT ABRUPTLY
TIGHTENS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A COMPLEX FUNCTION OF CLOUD
COVER, SNOW COVER AND WIND. WIND CHILL READINGS AS COLD AS -10
TO -20F ARE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE
MON MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
WE'LL START THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A 500 MB RIDGE WORKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW AN 850
MB HIGH TO DESCEND OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PROCEED TO THE
EAST, ACROSS TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SKY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE
DAY, AND HAS A 40% CHANCE OF LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 850
MB. THIS LOOKS TO BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER,
SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY STILL EXIST, AND LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES. IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CWA, HIGHS WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S, BUT ONLY THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. AS IS
TYPICAL SOON AFTER A SNOW EVENT, THE NBM IS NOT RESOLVING SNOWPACK
CAUSING THE NDFD TO SHOW TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN FORECAST TEMPERATURES. THE WARM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD
HELP THE MELTING PROCESS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THE GFS IS SHOWING A LOW
COMING OUT OF CANADA, DESTROYING THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, EVEN THE GFS IS LACKING MOISTURE, AND THE ECMWF AND CMC-NH
DO NOT SHOW THIS LOW PRESSURE FEATURE. THIS KEEPS POPS LESS THAN
10%. NBM AND NDFD ARE SHOWING ANOTHER 10-15% CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY
MORNING FROM A WARM FRONT. THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD HAVE TO BE
MAINLY LOW-LEVEL SUPPORTED AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
THIS LOW APPEARS TO BE THE NEXUS POINT OF WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE
GREATLY DIVERGES AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LOWERS MASSIVELY.
IT'S LIKELY THAT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST AND CONTINUE
THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN. THERE IS NOT A CLEAR SIGN POINTING TOWARDS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OR STRONG WINDS, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
ANOTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF COLD
WIND CHILLS AGAIN. RIGHT NOW, FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST
MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND 0, BUT WIND CHILLS EACH MORNING WILL
LIKELY BE BELOW 10 DEGREES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF KGLD INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING SOUTH AND OUT OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...024
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