485
FXUS63 KGLD 250527
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1027 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA. BITTER COLD WIND CHILL
READINGS AS LOW AS 20 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SIMILAR WIND CHILL READINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 638 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WERE
CANCELLED AS THE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WERE TAPERING OFF AND
TRANSITIONING EAST AWAY FROM NORTHWEST KS. THERE MAY STILL BE A
FEW FLURRIES LINGERING THIS EVENING, BUT THE CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE LIKELY OVER FOR THE NIGHT. THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MORE BREAKS IN HIGH CLOUDS ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS OVER FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW PACK. THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO BE NEAR -25 FOR WIND
CHILLS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHERE THE DEEPER SNOW PACK IS IN
PLACE IN KS. HOWEVER, COVERAGE AND DURATION ARE UNCERTAIN AND
AN EXTREME COLD WARNING IS NOT BEING CONSIDERED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. PLAN IS TO CHOP AWAY AT THE ADVISORY NORTH TO SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW ENDS. MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR THE ENTIRE
AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE LESS THAN 1". TEMPERATURES HAVE MOVED LITTLE
TODAY AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL HAVE NO
TROUBLE DROPPING BELOW ZERO AGAIN TONIGHT. COLDEST TEMPERATURES,
POTENTIALLY 10 TO 15 BELOW, WILL OCCUR IN THE DEEPEST SNOW
PACKED AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 IN NORTHWEST KANSAS.
WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH 25 BELOW IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LACKING TO UPGRADE THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
NOW. FOR SUNDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW, BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1" ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS
AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF 10 BELOW IN THE SNOW PACKED
AREAS. ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
MODELS DO SHOW A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH BUT NO
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE, WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS,
COLDEST IN SNOW PACKED AREAS. MONDAY WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. MIGHT SEE
SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW IF THOSE WINDS CAN BE REALIZED IN
THE SNOW PACKED AREAS WITH LIMITED MIXING POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL
BE LESS ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
WE'LL START THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A 500 MB RIDGE WORKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW AN 850
MB HIGH TO DESCEND OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PROCEED TO THE
EAST, ACROSS TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SKY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE
DAY, AND HAS A 40% CHANCE OF LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 850
MB. THIS LOOKS TO BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER,
SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY STILL EXIST, AND LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES. IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CWA, HIGHS WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S, BUT ONLY THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. AS IS
TYPICAL SOON AFTER A SNOW EVENT, THE NBM IS NOT RESOLVING SNOWPACK
CAUSING THE NDFD TO SHOW TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN FORECAST TEMPERATURES. THE WARM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD
HELP THE MELTING PROCESS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THE GFS IS SHOWING A LOW
COMING OUT OF CANADA, DESTROYING THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, EVEN THE GFS IS LACKING MOISTURE, AND THE ECMWF AND CMC-NH
DO NOT SHOW THIS LOW PRESSURE FEATURE. THIS KEEPS POPS LESS THAN
10%. NBM AND NDFD ARE SHOWING ANOTHER 10-15% CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY
MORNING FROM A WARM FRONT. THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD HAVE TO BE
MAINLY LOW-LEVEL SUPPORTED AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
THIS LOW APPEARS TO BE THE NEXUS POINT OF WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE
GREATLY DIVERGES AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LOWERS MASSIVELY.
IT'S LIKELY THAT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST AND CONTINUE
THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN. THERE IS NOT A CLEAR SIGN POINTING TOWARDS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OR STRONG WINDS, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
ANOTHER WINTER PRECIPITATION SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF COLD
WIND CHILLS AGAIN. RIGHT NOW, FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST
MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND 0, BUT WIND CHILLS EACH MORNING WILL
LIKELY BE BELOW 10 DEGREES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1027 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY AT KGLD AND KMCK, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AROUND OR LESS THAN 5KT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT BRINGS MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES TO THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IS AT
KGLD, THOUGH RATES MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY VISIBILITY
IMPACTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT
INCREASING TO THE 8-11KT RANGE WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...DR
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