713
FXUS63 KGLD 250809
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
109 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING
FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA.
- THE ONGOING COLD SNAP WILL END BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30 MPH, AT TIMES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 100 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED (IN TIME).. AND IS
NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. BITTER COLD AIR
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS 24 BELOW ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WHILE WIND CHILLS WILL
RISE ABOVE ZERO FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM INTO
THE TEENS, BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RETURN AFTER
SUNSET.. WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 24 BELOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. PLAN IS TO CHOP AWAY AT THE ADVISORY NORTH TO SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW ENDS. MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR THE ENTIRE
AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE LESS THAN 1". TEMPERATURES HAVE MOVED LITTLE
TODAY AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL HAVE NO
TROUBLE DROPPING BELOW ZERO AGAIN TONIGHT. COLDEST TEMPERATURES,
POTENTIALLY 10 TO 15 BELOW, WILL OCCUR IN THE DEEPEST SNOW
PACKED AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 IN NORTHWEST KANSAS.
WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH 25 BELOW IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LACKING TO UPGRADE THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
NOW. FOR SUNDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW, BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1" ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS
AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF 10 BELOW IN THE SNOW PACKED
AREAS. ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH BUT NO PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS, COLDEST IN SNOW PACKED
AREAS. MONDAY WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. MIGHT SEE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING
SNOW IF THOSE WINDS CAN BE REALIZED IN THE SNOW PACKED AREAS
WITH LIMITED MIXING POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 108 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A WHOLE IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO HAVE MORE OF AN
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP TREND THE AREA TOWARDS
WARMER TEMPERATURES. THAT BEING SAID, TUESDAY SHOULD STILL BE A BIT
ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AND WITH A COLDER AIR
MASS TRYING TO MOVE IN (THOUGH FOR NOW IT LOOKS TO GO MORE TO THE
EAST). HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S
AND 40S (COLDER TO THE EAST) WHILE WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO HAVE
HIGHS AROUND 50. ANY LINGERING SNOW PACK COULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
BE A BIT LOWER THAN FORECAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, GUIDANCE HAS BECOME A BIT MORE UNIFIED IN AN
UPPER LOW SWINGING INTO THE PLAINS ON THESE DAYS. THE ISSUE IS THAT
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON WHEN IT ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA AND HOW FAR WEST IT WILL DIG. THE FAVORED SOLUTION IS THAT
IT WILL SWING THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT, WITH
THE REINFORCING COLD AIR AND COLDEST TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. THE
OTHER SOLUTION IS THAT THE SAME THING HAPPENS ON FRIDAY INSTEAD WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. WHILE MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE THE
UPPER LOW DIGGING WEST ENOUGH FOR US TO GET A DECENT SHOT OF COLD
AIR, THERE ARE SPLITS ON EITHER SIDE WITH IT DIGGING TO MUCH (VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES) OR SHIFTING MORE EAST (MORE MILD TEMPERATURES FOR
THE AREA). FOR NOW, THE FORECAST IS REFLECTIVE OF THE FAVORED
SOLUTION, BUT BE PREPARED FOR CHANGES IN EITHER DIRECTION. IT IS
WORTH NOTING THAT FROM A TEMPERATURE MAGNITUDE PERSPECTIVE, THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONLY A 25% CHANCE THAT WE EITHER GET THE REALLY COLD
OR MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOMETHING SIMILAR TO WHAT
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN GOING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. THAT
BEING SAID, THE RIDGE IS FAVORED TO BE A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE AREA A BIT WARMER IN THE ABSENCE OF UPPER LOWS OR
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND BRINGING SYSTEMS THROUGH THE
AREA.
IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION, CHANCES ARE LOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM
AS WE REMAIN FAVORED TO BE DRY AT THE SURFACE. OUR BEST CHANCE IS
WITH THE FRONT/SYSTEM ON THU/FRI. EVEN THEN, THE ENSEMBLES UPPER END
IS ONLY ABOUT 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES OF LIQUID.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1027 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY AT KGLD AND KMCK, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AROUND OR LESS THAN 5KT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT BRINGS MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES TO THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IS AT
KGLD, THOUGH RATES MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY VISIBILITY
IMPACTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT
INCREASING TO THE 8-11KT RANGE WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ MONDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ MONDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
UPDATE...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...DR
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