070
FXUS63 KGLD 251729
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1029 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING
FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW (< 1") IS EXPECTED IN EASTERN CO
AND ADJACENT KS-NE BORDER AREAS BETWEEN ~4-11 PM MST. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS (~1-3") CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN EASTERN CO,
WHERE SNOW MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY 15-25 MPH NORTHEAST WINDS. IF
LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW WERE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR
IN EASTERN CO, HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY BE
EXACERBATED BY BLOWING SNOW.
- THE ONGOING COLD SNAP WILL END BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30 MPH, AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT: AT 09Z (2 AM MST) THIS MORNING.. OBERLIN,
NORTON, HILL CITY AND COLBY WERE REPORTING AIR TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM -9 TO -15F (COLDEST OBSERVATIONS WITHIN SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES IN ANY DIRECTION), COLD ENOUGH, THAT.. LIGHT (5-10
MPH) WINDS HAVE YIELDED EXTREME WIND CHILL READINGS AS LOW AS
-27 TO -32F. ELSEWHERE, AIR TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 0 TO -5F
WITH WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND -15 TO -20F. THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED (IN TIME), AND IS NOW IN EFFECT
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. BITTER COLD AIR TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 20 TO 30
BELOW ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WHILE WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO
RISE ABOVE ZERO FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM INTO
THE TEENS, BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RETURN AFTER
SUNSET.. WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 24 BELOW EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SSE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS
MORNING WILL PROGRESS SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
MAINLY IN EASTERN CO AND ADJACENT KS-NE BORDER AREAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RECENT (06Z 01/25) RUNS OF THE HRRR, RAP
AND NAM NEST APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION,
INDICATING LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
BETWEEN ~23-06Z (~4-11P MST) AND TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY < 1", ALBEIT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS (1-3") IN EASTERN CO (KIT CARSON COUNTY/PALMER
DIVIDE/I-70), WHERE SNOW COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY 15-25 MPH NE
WINDS. *IF* AND WHERE LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW WERE TO DEVELOP IN
EASTERN CO, HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY BE
EXACERBATED BY BLOWING SNOW. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND OVERNIGHT (MON MORNING) LOWS RANGING FROM -5 TO -10F.
MON-MON NIGHT: THE ONGOING COLD SNAP WILL END BY EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS ~1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MODEST SW TO WSW LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW
INITIATES A WARMING TREND. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM 32-40F,
COLDEST IN AREAS WITH SNOW COVER IN NORTHWEST KS. A RELATIVELY
TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT MAY FOSTER BREEZY (15-25 G 30 MPH) SW WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ASSOC/W BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE,
DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT.. AND IF SO, TO WHAT EXTENT.. SNOW
COVER AFFECTS VERTICAL MIXING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT (TUE MORNING)
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.. POSSIBLY COLDER IN AREAS
WITH LINGERING SNOW COVER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 108 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A WHOLE IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO HAVE MORE
OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP TREND THE AREA
TOWARDS WARMER TEMPERATURES. THAT BEING SAID, TUESDAY SHOULD
STILL BE A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
AND WITH A COLDER AIR MASS TRYING TO MOVE IN (THOUGH FOR NOW IT
LOOKS TO GO MORE TO THE EAST). HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S AND 40S (COLDER TO THE EAST) WHILE
WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO HAVE HIGHS AROUND 50. ANY LINGERING
SNOW PACK COULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN
FORECAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, GUIDANCE HAS BECOME A BIT MORE UNIFIED IN
AN UPPER LOW SWINGING INTO THE PLAINS ON THESE DAYS. THE ISSUE
IS THAT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON WHEN IT ACTUALLY
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW FAR WEST IT WILL DIG. THE FAVORED
SOLUTION IS THAT IT WILL SWING THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT, WITH THE REINFORCING COLD AIR AND COLDEST
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. THE OTHER SOLUTION IS THAT THE SAME
THING HAPPENS ON FRIDAY INSTEAD WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. WHILE MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE THE UPPER LOW DIGGING WEST
ENOUGH FOR US TO GET A DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR, THERE ARE SPLITS
ON EITHER SIDE WITH IT DIGGING TO MUCH (VERY COLD TEMPERATURES)
OR SHIFTING MORE EAST (MORE MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA).
FOR NOW, THE FORECAST IS REFLECTIVE OF THE FAVORED SOLUTION, BUT
BE PREPARED FOR CHANGES IN EITHER DIRECTION. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT FROM A TEMPERATURE MAGNITUDE PERSPECTIVE, THERE APPEARS TO
BE ONLY A 25% CHANCE THAT WE EITHER GET THE REALLY COLD OR MILD
TEMPERATURES. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOMETHING SIMILAR TO WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN GOING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. THAT
BEING SAID, THE RIDGE IS FAVORED TO BE A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA A BIT WARMER IN THE ABSENCE OF UPPER
LOWS OR SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND BRINGING SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE AREA.
IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION, CHANCES ARE LOW THROUGH THE LONG
TERM AS WE REMAIN FAVORED TO BE DRY AT THE SURFACE. OUR BEST
CHANCE IS WITH THE FRONT/SYSTEM ON THU/FRI. EVEN THEN, THE
ENSEMBLES UPPER END IS ONLY ABOUT 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES OF LIQUID.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THE KGLD,
MAINLY BETWEEN 0-6Z AS STRATUS AND SNOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
KMCK IS NOT CLEAR OF THE THREAT, BUT THE WORST IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE AIRPORT. OTHERWISE, IT'S DECENT WEATHER TO
FLY IN.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ MONDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ MONDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CA
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