003
FXUS63 KGLD 251837
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1137 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING
FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. EASTERN
COLORADO MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE
REST OF THE AREA SEEING A TRACE UP TO 1 INCH.
- THE ONGOING COLD SNAP WILL END BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30 MPH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
THIS EVENING, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING
WITH IT A CHANCE AT SOME LIGHT SNOW AND STRATUS. THE COLUMN IS ONLY
SATURATED IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS, BUT THERE IS A STRONG BAND OF
VORTICITY AT 500 MB, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. MOST LIKELY,
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA WILL SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW, AREAS
BETWEEN STRATTON, CO AND KS 25 WILL GENERALLY SEE BETWEEN 0.25-1
INCH OF SNOW. AREAS ON EAST WILL LIKELY SEE A TRACE TO LESS THAN
0.25 INCH OF SNOW , EXCEPT NORTHEAST OF CULBERTSON TO HILL CITY,
WHICH MAY ONLY SEE FLURRIES. THIS SNOWFALL WILL START MOVING INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AROUND 21Z, PEAK AROUND 0-3Z, AND EXIT TO THE
SOUTH AROUND 6-9Z.
THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE EAST SIDE OF THE STRATUS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE ADDING SOME CHAOS INTO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS, AT LEAST SCATTERED SKY COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 24 UNTIL 12Z. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SURFACE
INSULATED MODERATELY WELL, AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
MUCH THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NIGHT, LETTING IT BE WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE SKY LOOKS TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BEFORE SUNRISE,
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL AROUND
-10 TO 0. THIS WOULD LEAD TO WIND CHILLS IN THE -25 TO -25 RANGE. IF
THE SKY CLEARS OUT SOONER, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP ANOTHER 5
DEGREES, AND WIND CHILLS TO DROP A SIMILAR AMOUNT. CURRENT
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT 50% THAT THE SKY WILL CLEAR EARLY AND NORTON,
DECATUR, RED WILLOW, AND GRAHAM COUNTIES WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW
-25, COLD WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER, UNTIL THAT CONFIDENCE
CLIMBS, AN ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE
AREA.
TOMORROW LOOKS COMPARATIVELY MILD AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN, LEAVING US UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WE COULD
SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KTS ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE THE NEW SNOW FROM THIS
AFTERNOON MAY BLOW AND REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1-3 MILES. FOR THE
SNOW THAT FELL FRIDAY/SATURDAY, CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT 3-5% FOR THE
SAME IMPACTS. TEMPERATURES IN THE SNOWPACKED ARE WILL LIKELY
TOP OUT AROUND FREEZING WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST WILL WARM
CLOSER TO 40. WINDS OVERNIGHT MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN WESTERLY,
WHICH THE NBM IS EXPECTING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TEENS. FOR AREAS WITHOUT SNOWPACK, THIS IS LIKELY. REMAINING
SNOWPACK AREAS WILL LIKELY COOL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH
WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO AROUND 0. THERE'S A 40% CHANCE AREAS
WITH REMAINING SNOWPACK WILL COOL AN ADDITIONAL 5 DEGREES, IN
BOTH AIR TEMPERATURE AND WIND CHILLS.
TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO PROPOGATE THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, WITH ONLY SOME MILD UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE, NO PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WITH THIS WAVE. TEMPERATURES
FROM THE NBM SHOW MID 40S IN THE WEST AND JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
EAST. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SNOWPACK, IT'S LIKELY TEMPERATURES
ARE 3-5 DEGREES TOO WARM, MEANING THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WILL LIKELY
NOT WARM ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES ARE WIND CHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY NIGHT'S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 108 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A WHOLE IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO HAVE MORE
OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP TREND THE AREA
TOWARDS WARMER TEMPERATURES. THAT BEING SAID, TUESDAY SHOULD
STILL BE A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
AND WITH A COLDER AIR MASS TRYING TO MOVE IN (THOUGH FOR NOW IT
LOOKS TO GO MORE TO THE EAST). HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S AND 40S (COLDER TO THE EAST) WHILE
WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO HAVE HIGHS AROUND 50. ANY LINGERING
SNOW PACK COULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN
FORECAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, GUIDANCE HAS BECOME A BIT MORE UNIFIED IN
AN UPPER LOW SWINGING INTO THE PLAINS ON THESE DAYS. THE ISSUE
IS THAT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON WHEN IT ACTUALLY
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND HOW FAR WEST IT WILL DIG. THE FAVORED
SOLUTION IS THAT IT WILL SWING THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT, WITH THE REINFORCING COLD AIR AND COLDEST
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. THE OTHER SOLUTION IS THAT THE SAME
THING HAPPENS ON FRIDAY INSTEAD WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. WHILE MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE THE UPPER LOW DIGGING WEST
ENOUGH FOR US TO GET A DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR, THERE ARE SPLITS
ON EITHER SIDE WITH IT DIGGING TO MUCH (VERY COLD TEMPERATURES)
OR SHIFTING MORE EAST (MORE MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA).
FOR NOW, THE FORECAST IS REFLECTIVE OF THE FAVORED SOLUTION, BUT
BE PREPARED FOR CHANGES IN EITHER DIRECTION. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT FROM A TEMPERATURE MAGNITUDE PERSPECTIVE, THERE APPEARS TO
BE ONLY A 25% CHANCE THAT WE EITHER GET THE REALLY COLD OR MILD
TEMPERATURES. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOMETHING SIMILAR TO WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN GOING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. THAT
BEING SAID, THE RIDGE IS FAVORED TO BE A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA A BIT WARMER IN THE ABSENCE OF UPPER
LOWS OR SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND BRINGING SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE AREA.
IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION, CHANCES ARE LOW THROUGH THE LONG
TERM AS WE REMAIN FAVORED TO BE DRY AT THE SURFACE. OUR BEST
CHANCE IS WITH THE FRONT/SYSTEM ON THU/FRI. EVEN THEN, THE
ENSEMBLES UPPER END IS ONLY ABOUT 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES OF LIQUID.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THE KGLD,
MAINLY BETWEEN 0-6Z AS STRATUS AND SNOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
KMCK IS NOT CLEAR OF THE THREAT, BUT THE WORST IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE AIRPORT. OTHERWISE, IT'S DECENT WEATHER TO
FLY IN.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ MONDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ MONDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page