262
FXUS63 KGLD 260755
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1255 AM MST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING
FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. EASTERN
COLORADO MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE
REST OF THE AREA SEEING A TRACE UP TO 1 INCH.
- THE ONGOING COLD SNAP WILL END BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30 MPH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
THIS EVENING, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING
WITH IT A CHANCE AT SOME LIGHT SNOW AND STRATUS. THE COLUMN IS ONLY
SATURATED IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS, BUT THERE IS A STRONG BAND OF
VORTICITY AT 500 MB, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. MOST LIKELY,
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA WILL SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW, AREAS
BETWEEN STRATTON, CO AND KS 25 WILL GENERALLY SEE BETWEEN 0.25-1
INCH OF SNOW. AREAS ON EAST WILL LIKELY SEE A TRACE TO LESS THAN
0.25 INCH OF SNOW , EXCEPT NORTHEAST OF CULBERTSON TO HILL CITY,
WHICH MAY ONLY SEE FLURRIES. THIS SNOWFALL WILL START MOVING INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AROUND 21Z, PEAK AROUND 0-3Z, AND EXIT TO THE
SOUTH AROUND 6-9Z.
THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE EAST SIDE OF THE STRATUS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE ADDING SOME CHAOS INTO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS, AT LEAST SCATTERED SKY COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 24 UNTIL 12Z. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SURFACE
INSULATED MODERATELY WELL, AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
MUCH THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NIGHT, LETTING IT BE WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE SKY LOOKS TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BEFORE SUNRISE,
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL AROUND
-10 TO 0. THIS WOULD LEAD TO WIND CHILLS IN THE -25 TO -25 RANGE. IF
THE SKY CLEARS OUT SOONER, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP ANOTHER 5
DEGREES, AND WIND CHILLS TO DROP A SIMILAR AMOUNT. CURRENT
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT 50% THAT THE SKY WILL CLEAR EARLY AND NORTON,
DECATUR, RED WILLOW, AND GRAHAM COUNTIES WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW
-25, COLD WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER, UNTIL THAT CONFIDENCE
CLIMBS, AN ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE
AREA.
TOMORROW LOOKS COMPARATIVELY MILD AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN, LEAVING US UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WE COULD
SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KTS ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE THE NEW SNOW FROM THIS
AFTERNOON MAY BLOW AND REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1-3 MILES. FOR THE
SNOW THAT FELL FRIDAY/SATURDAY, CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT 3-5% FOR THE
SAME IMPACTS. TEMPERATURES IN THE SNOWPACKED ARE WILL LIKELY
TOP OUT AROUND FREEZING WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST WILL WARM
CLOSER TO 40. WINDS OVERNIGHT MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN WESTERLY,
WHICH THE NBM IS EXPECTING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TEENS. FOR AREAS WITHOUT SNOWPACK, THIS IS LIKELY. REMAINING
SNOWPACK AREAS WILL LIKELY COOL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH
WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO AROUND 0. THERE'S A 40% CHANCE AREAS
WITH REMAINING SNOWPACK WILL COOL AN ADDITIONAL 5 DEGREES, IN
BOTH AIR TEMPERATURE AND WIND CHILLS.
TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO PROPOGATE THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, WITH ONLY SOME MILD UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE, NO PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WITH THIS WAVE. TEMPERATURES
FROM THE NBM SHOW MID 40S IN THE WEST AND JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
EAST. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SNOWPACK, IT'S LIKELY TEMPERATURES
ARE 3-5 DEGREES TOO WARM, MEANING THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WILL LIKELY
NOT WARM ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES ARE WIND CHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY NIGHT'S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MST MON JAN 26 2026
WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA WHILE AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE HELPS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE, ALLOWING
FOR LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
LOW 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA UNDERNEATH SUNNY SKIES. SHOULD ANY SNOW
LINGER FOR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA, THOSE LOCALES WOULD SEE
HIGHS MORE IN THE 40S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS
FORECAST TO SWING A TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 20S IN THE EAST (CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
THE COLD AIR MAS) AND 40S TO THE WEST. LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO BE IN THE TEENS, WITH SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IF THE HIGH CENTER
SHIFTS WEST AS SOME ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. AS A WHOLE, GUIDANCE
IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND OVERALL PATH OF THE
FEATURES WHICH IS LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. BUT
STILL, THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE THAT ARE
GIVING US A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS. IF THE COLDER SOLUTION
PANS OUT, NEGATIVE WIND CHILLS COULD RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING.
IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE BETTER AGREEMENT
HAS ALSO LED TO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE AIR SHOULD SATURATE AS
THESE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH. STILL, WE WILL LIKELY BE DRY NEAR THE
SURFACE WHICH WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED. WE SHOULD
SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER AND EVEN FLURRIES DUE TO THE
HIGHER LEVEL SATURATION. BUT THE LACK OF FEATURES WHEN WE ARE
FORECAST TO BE MOST SATURATED SUGGESTS WE WON'T HAVE MUCH LIFT AND
JUST HAVE LIGHT SNOW AT BEST. THIS IS REFLECTED IN GUIDANCE QPF
FORECASTS RANGING FROM 0.01 TO 0.2. SO UNLESS WE GET MUCH COLDER
(HIGHER SLRS) OR CAN GET ONE OF THE SYSTEMS TO SLOW NEAR THE AREA
AND PROVIDE BETTER LIFT, SNOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW A FEW INCHES
AND HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WINDS
THOUGH AS WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS WINDS AROUND OR BELOW 15
MPH, GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD SHOULD
MORPH QUITE A BIT MAY ALLOW FOR A SCENARIO WHERE WE BRIEFLY HAVE A
TIGHT GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS. BLOWING SNOW MAY THEN BE A
CONCERN.
GOING INTO THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE ARE FORECAST TO
STAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THAT BEING SAID, IT IS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY THAT WE MOVE MORE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE'S INFLUENCE AND
WOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR HIGHS IN
THE 50S, BUT WE COULD SEE 60S IF WE DON'T GET ANY SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20S.
FOR NOW, NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DRY
AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 417 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AND PERHAPS SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY 06-07Z TONIGHT WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...024
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