478
FXUS63 KGLD 261831
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1131 AM MST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- OUR NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY, THANKFULLY MAJOR
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MST MON JAN 26 2026
TODAY LOOKS COMPARATIVELY MILD AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN, LEAVING US UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE SNOWPACKED AREA WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND FREEZING WHILE AREAS
TO THE NORTHWEST WILL WARM CLOSER TO 40. WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
LOOK TO REMAIN WESTERLY, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN, BUT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO -7 TO 0. THERE'S A 20% CHANCE AREAS WITH
REMAINING SNOWPACK WILL COOL AN ADDITIONAL 5 DEGREES, FOR BOTH AIR
TEMPERATURE AND WIND CHILLS.
TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO PROPOGATE THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDDAY. HOWEVER, WITH ONLY SOME MILD UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE, NO PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WITH THIS WAVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A PRETTY STRONG GRADIENT TOMORROW. IN THE
WESTERN CWA, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 40S WHILE AREAS IN
THE EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA, WHERE THE SNOWPACK REMAINS, TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S.
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
THE TEENS IN AREAS WITH NO SNOWPACK, BUT WILL COOL TO AROUND 10 IN
THE SNOWY AREA. WIND CHILLS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN AIR TEMPERATURES, GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 0.
WEDNESDAY, A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE FARTHER IN-
LAND, WEAKENING THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AS THE RIDGE MOVES
CLOSER TO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT TO
KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE DAY. THERE'S A 40% CHANCE AN
850 MB HIGH FORMS OVER TEXAS WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
A DECENT AMOUNT, WITH THE NBM SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. WHILE AREAS WEST AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM TRIBUNE
TO OBERLIN COULD VERY WELL SEE SOME 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURES, THE NBM
IS LIKELY FAILING TO ACCOUNT FOR REMAINING SNOWPACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
LINE. ANY AREAS THAT STILL HAVE SNOWPACK WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE LOW 40S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS WILL BE COMING OVER THE ROCKIES AND LIKELY IMPACTING THE HIGH
PLAINS A BIT. WE CAN AT LEAST EXPECT INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, REMAINING SNOWPACK WILL LOWER LOCAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW TEENS. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE EASTERN
COLORADO GETS SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM, BUT MOST MODELS SHOW
A DRY LOW-LEVEL LAYER, PREVENTING ANY PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MST MON JAN 26 2026
WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA WHILE AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE HELPS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE,
ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE LOW 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA UNDERNEATH SUNNY SKIES.
SHOULD ANY SNOW LINGER FOR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA, THOSE
LOCALES WOULD SEE HIGHS MORE IN THE 40S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
IS FORECAST TO SWING A TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 20S IN THE EAST (CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THE COLD AIR MAS) AND 40S TO THE WEST. LOWS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS, WITH SINGLE DIGITS
POSSIBLE IF THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS WEST AS SOME ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. AS A WHOLE, GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND OVERALL PATH OF THE FEATURES WHICH
IS LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. BUT STILL,
THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE THAT ARE
GIVING US A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS. IF THE COLDER
SOLUTION PANS OUT, NEGATIVE WIND CHILLS COULD RETURN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING.
IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE BETTER
AGREEMENT HAS ALSO LED TO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE AIR SHOULD
SATURATE AS THESE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH. STILL, WE WILL LIKELY BE
DRY NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIMITED. WE SHOULD SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER AND
EVEN FLURRIES DUE TO THE HIGHER LEVEL SATURATION. BUT THE LACK
OF FEATURES WHEN WE ARE FORECAST TO BE MOST SATURATED SUGGESTS
WE WON'T HAVE MUCH LIFT AND JUST HAVE LIGHT SNOW AT BEST. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN GUIDANCE QPF FORECASTS RANGING FROM 0.01 TO 0.2.
SO UNLESS WE GET MUCH COLDER (HIGHER SLRS) OR CAN GET ONE OF
THE SYSTEMS TO SLOW NEAR THE AREA AND PROVIDE BETTER LIFT, SNOW
WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW A FEW INCHES AND HAVE LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WINDS THOUGH AS WHILE
THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS WINDS AROUND OR BELOW 15 MPH,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD SHOULD MORPH
QUITE A BIT MAY ALLOW FOR A SCENARIO WHERE WE BRIEFLY HAVE A
TIGHT GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS. BLOWING SNOW MAY THEN BE A
CONCERN.
GOING INTO THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE ARE
FORECAST TO STAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THAT BEING SAID,
IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT WE MOVE MORE UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE'S INFLUENCE AND WOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S, BUT WE COULD SEE 60S IF WE
DON'T GET ANY SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK.
LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20S. FOR NOW, NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 921 AM MST MON JAN 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
KGLD AND KMCK. WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL WEAKEN AT SUNSET. AROUND 6-9Z, BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK HAVE A 30% CHANCE OF SEEING LLWS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
35-45 KTS. THE HEIGHT OF THE LLWS IS WHAT IS LOWERING CONFIDENCE
THAT CRITERIA WILL BE HIT. AS IT STANDS, GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE
WINDS AT 600-1,000 FEET AGL, WHICH IS REASONABLE. IF THIS HEIGHT
LOWERS TO 200-500 FEET AGL, CRITERIA WILL BE HIT AND WILL BE
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CA
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