917
FXUS63 KGLD 271118
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
418 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- A COOLING TREND WILL FOLLOW, BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- OUR NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY, THANKFULLY MAJOR
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT: A NW FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION.. DOWNSTREAM OF A PRONOUNCED RIDGE (OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PACIFIC NW) AND UPSTREAM OF BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW /TROUGHING/ ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO AT 08 UTC WILL DIG SE-SSE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE THIS MORNING. BROKEN/OVERCAST
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PRECEDING AND ACCOMPANYING THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE, MAINLY IN EASTERN CO, WILL ABATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, AN ILL-DEFINED MSLP TO 850
MB HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY, SUGGESTING THAT WINDS MAY PREDOMINANTLY BE VARIABLE. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.. BETWEEN A BAGGY LEE TROUGH IN CO AND
~1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL-EASTERN KS.. WILL FOLLOW,
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 30'S TO MID 40'S, COLDEST IN AREAS WITH LINGERING SNOW COVER
(GRAHAM, SHERIDAN, LOGAN AND GOVE COUNTIES) AND OVERNIGHT (WED
MORNING) LOWS IN THE TEENS. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ATOP LINGERING SNOW COVER
AND/OR INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SNOW-MELT COULD
FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS IN FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA (ALONG/EAST OF HWY 283) THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH.. VISIBILITY FORECASTS VIA CURRENT AND RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE NOT NOT INDICATIVE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT.
WED-WED NIGHT: SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ASHORE THE PACIFIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON WED. EXPECT A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE.. WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40'S TO MID 50'S AND OVERNIGHT (THU
MORNING) LOWS IN THE TEENS, COLDEST IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK CONTINUES TO FEATURE
DOMINATE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW AS A RESULT OF RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN US AND DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
US. A STRONGER TROUGH DIVES OUT OF HUDSON BAY AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND ON THE WESTERN EXTENT BRINGS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SYNOPTIC
FORCING SHOULD BE GOOD AS A JET STREAK PASSES ALONG WITH PVA
NEAR THE REGION, HOWEVER THIS IS A QUICK/PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND THE STRONG CONSENSUS IN
ENSEMBLES IS FOR A DUSTING OF SNOW WITHIN THE TRI-STATE REGION
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LIMITED IMPACTS. THERE
ARE SOME MEMBERS (20% PROBABILITY ON NBM) THAT SHOW BRIEF
BANDING THAT MAY RESULT IN 1" TOTALS, HOWEVER THESE ARE
CURRENTLY OUTLIERS AND THAT TYPE OF FEATURE WOULD DEPEND HIGHLY
ON MESOSCALE FORCING THAT CARIES A LOWER PREDICTABILITY HORIZON
AND IMPACTS WOULD STILL BE LOW. THIS PATTERN DOES BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND WHILE WIND CHILLS IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY MORNING MAY OCCUR ADVISORY
IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY AS THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS EAST.
BEYOND THAT SYSTEM, ENSEMBLES SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THE
CONTINENTAL PATTERN TO START TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES (50S FOR
HIGHS).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 415 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. WESTERLY WINDS AT ~6-12 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
VARIABLE LATE THIS MORNING AND MAY REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, EVENTUALLY BECOMING S-SW (LATE THIS
AFTERNOON) TO W (OVERNIGHT).
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...VINCENT
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