239
FXUS63 KGLD 271955
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1255 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- A COOLING TREND WILL FOLLOW, BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- AROUND 10% CHANCE OF FOG AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE FAVORING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
- OUR NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY, THANKFULLY MAJOR
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY. A FEW EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES AND 500MB VORTICITY ARE NOTED AS WELL MAINLY ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO COUNTIES AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE SOME ECHOES ARE SEEN ON RADAR. HIGHLY
DOUBT ANY OF THAT IS REACHING THE SURFACE DUE TO DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE. A BIT STRONGER WAVE OF 500MB VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM AROUND 00Z-04Z WHICH MAY HAVE A BIT
BETTER CHANCE AT SOME FLURRIES DURING THIS TIME BUT OVERALL
NOTHING IMPACTFUL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. OUR SNOWPACK IS STILL
IMPACTING TEMPERATURES WITH THOSE LOCALES STRUGGLING TO GET
ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE DAY. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING AND FLOW
OVERALL WINDS HAVE REMAINED LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA
BUT WILL CHANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THAT WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY. THIS WESTERLY WIND IS
FORECAST TO HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FULLY FALLING OVERNIGHT
WITH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FORECAST IN THE MID
TEENS AND FURTHER EAST IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
TEENS.
WEDNESDAY, A VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN STORED WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. THE DIFFERENCE IS
DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT THAT WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE WEST WHICH LEADS TO MORE OF A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT. THE WESTERLY WIND IS ALSO FORECAST TO
ADVECT IN A BIT WARMER OF AN AIR MASS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 50S ARE FORECAST FOR THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
THE SNOWPACK WHERE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE BREEZIER AROUND 15
MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WHEREAS
EASTERN COLORADO IS FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE LIGHTER DUE TO BEING
FURTHER FROM THE RELATIVELY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO SEE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND LEAD TO
SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THIS OCCURS. HAVE SOME
CONCERN FOR FOG TO OCCUR DUE TO THIS ALONG WITH ANY ADDITIONAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW. RAP AND NAM BOTH SHOW
SOME SURFACE OMEGA AROUND -3 TO -5 MICROBARS WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (ROUGHLY
HIGHWAY 25 ON EAST). THE LREF IS ALSO SUGGESTING 20-30% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST A TRACE OF ICE STARTING AROUND 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY ACROSS THE SAME AREA WHICH DOES INCREASE MY CONFIDENCE
SOME. THE PART THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING ME SOME DOUBT IS IF
THE SATURATED LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE IS DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE
NUCLEI TO DEVELOP OR IF IT WILL JUST BE FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.
DUE TO THIS WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE
INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HAVE PUT 10-14 CHANCES INTO THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER FOR NOW. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. 850MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KNOTS LEADING TO SOME BREEZY WIND POTENTIAL WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST BUT SOME ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
DOES HAVE IT CLOSER TOWARDS THE COLORADO BORDER SO WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. SLIM CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT OVERALL FORCING APPEARS TO BE
FAIRLY WEAK SO IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION NOT ANTICIPATING MORE
THAN A DUSTING AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND FREEZING WHERE THE COLDEST AIR RESIDES TO
THE MID 40S FURTHER TO THE WEST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK CONTINUES TO FEATURE
DOMINATE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW AS A RESULT OF RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN US AND DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
US. A STRONGER TROUGH DIVES OUT OF HUDSON BAY AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND ON THE WESTERN EXTENT BRINGS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SYNOPTIC
FORCING SHOULD BE GOOD AS A JET STREAK PASSES ALONG WITH PVA
NEAR THE REGION, HOWEVER THIS IS A QUICK/PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND THE STRONG CONSENSUS IN
ENSEMBLES IS FOR A DUSTING OF SNOW WITHIN THE TRI-STATE REGION
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LIMITED IMPACTS. THERE
ARE SOME MEMBERS (20% PROBABILITY ON NBM) THAT SHOW BRIEF
BANDING THAT MAY RESULT IN 1" TOTALS, HOWEVER THESE ARE
CURRENTLY OUTLIERS AND THAT TYPE OF FEATURE WOULD DEPEND HIGHLY
ON MESOSCALE FORCING THAT CARIES A LOWER PREDICTABILITY HORIZON
AND IMPACTS WOULD STILL BE LOW. THIS PATTERN DOES BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND WHILE WIND CHILLS IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY MORNING MAY OCCUR ADVISORY
IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY AS THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS EAST.
BEYOND THAT SYSTEM, ENSEMBLES SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THE
CONTINENTAL PATTERN TO START TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES (50S FOR
HIGHS).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 956 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. VARIABLE WINDS
AROUND 06 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHICH
MAY BRING A SLIM CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES FOR MCK AROUND 02Z BUT
NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. A MORE PRODUCED WSW WIND DIRECTION IS
FORECAST TO PREVAIL STARTING DURING THE LATE EVENING FOR EACH
TERMINAL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...TRIGG
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