257
FXUS63 KGLD 272305
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
405 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- A COOLING TREND WILL FOLLOW, BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- AROUND 10% CHANCE OF FOG AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE FAVORING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
- OUR NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY, THANKFULLY MAJOR
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 F
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY. A FEW EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES AND 500MB VORTICITY ARE NOTED AS WELL MAINLY ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO COUNTIES AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE SOME ECHOES ARE SEEN ON RADAR. HIGHLY
DOUBT ANY OF THAT IS REACHING THE SURFACE DUE TO DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE. A BIT STRONGER WAVE OF 500MB VORTICITY IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM AROUND 00Z-04Z WHICH MAY HAVE A BIT
BETTER CHANCE AT SOME FLURRIES DURING THIS TIME BUT OVERALL
NOTHING IMPACTFUL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. OUR SNOWPACK IS STILL
IMPACTING TEMPERATURES WITH THOSE LOCALES STRUGGLING TO GET
ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE DAY. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING AND FLOW
OVERALL WINDS HAVE REMAINED LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA
BUT WILL CHANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THAT WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY. THIS WESTERLY WIND IS
FORECAST TO HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FULLY FALLING OVERNIGHT
WITH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FORECAST IN THE MID
TEENS AND FURTHER EAST IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
TEENS.
WEDNESDAY, A VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN STORED WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. THE DIFFERENCE IS
DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT THAT WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE WEST WHICH LEADS TO MORE OF A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT. THE WESTERLY WIND IS ALSO FORECAST TO
ADVECT IN A BIT WARMER OF AN AIR MASS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 50S ARE FORECAST FOR THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
THE SNOWPACK WHERE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE BREEZIER AROUND 15
MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WHEREAS
EASTERN COLORADO IS FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE LIGHTER DUE TO BEING
FURTHER FROM THE RELATIVELY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO SEE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND LEAD TO
SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THIS OCCURS. HAVE SOME
CONCERN FOR FOG TO OCCUR DUE TO THIS ALONG WITH ANY ADDITIONAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW. RAP AND NAM BOTH SHOW
SOME SURFACE OMEGA AROUND -3 TO -5 MICROBARS WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (ROUGHLY
HIGHWAY 25 ON EAST). THE LREF IS ALSO SUGGESTING 20-30% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST A TRACE OF ICE STARTING AROUND 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY ACROSS THE SAME AREA WHICH DOES INCREASE MY CONFIDENCE
SOME. THE PART THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING ME SOME DOUBT IS IF
THE SATURATED LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE IS DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE
NUCLEI TO DEVELOP OR IF IT WILL JUST BE FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.
DUE TO THIS WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE
INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HAVE PUT 10-14 CHANCES INTO THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER FOR NOW. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. 850MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KNOTS LEADING TO SOME BREEZY WIND POTENTIAL WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST BUT SOME ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
DOES HAVE IT CLOSER TOWARDS THE COLORADO BORDER SO WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. SLIM CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT OVERALL FORCING APPEARS TO BE
FAIRLY WEAK SO IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION NOT ANTICIPATING MORE
THAN A DUSTING AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND FREEZING WHERE THE COLDEST AIR RESIDES TO
THE MID 40S FURTHER TO THE WEST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
FRIDAY 12Z TO SATURDAY 12Z:
A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH
THE MIDWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ALLOWED TO ENTER THE UNITED STATES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WHICH COULD BRING SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A
DUSTING OF SNOW INTO THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, AND POSSIBLY DROP
BELOW 0 IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION OVERNIGHT. WIND
CHILLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE TEMPERATURES COULD DROP INTO
THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS. CURRENTLY, CLOUD COVER IS
FORECASTED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, BUT A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER
COULD ALLOW FOR INCREASED RADIATIONAL COOLING. IF PAIRED WITH
THE CURRENTLY FORECASTED LIGHT WINDS, TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
ENOUGH THAT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE CURRENTLY NOT FORECAST TO
EXCEED HALF AN INCH, AND WOULD BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING AND END
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.
SATURDAY 12Z TO MONDAY 12Z:
BY SATURDAY MORNING, A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST TO BE
REESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE
OVERHEAD, WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM FRIDAY LOCATED TO THE
EAST OF THE CWA. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF SLIGHT WARMING ON
SATURDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY REACHING THE MID-40S IN
COUNTIES ALONG THE KS-CO BORDER.
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME COULD ALLOW A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO
TRAVERSE THE UNITED STATES BETWEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES LOOKS TO COME THROUGH SOMETIME
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE A DUSTING OF
SNOW FOR SOME AREAS OF THE FORECAST REGION. ACCUMULATIONS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID-TEENS TO LOW-20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE COULD COME THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOW 50S
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE'S ARRIVAL. HOWEVER, LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO THE MID-TEENS TO LOW-20S
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.
MONDAY 12Z TO WEDNESDAY 12Z:
BY MONDAY MORNING, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES, WHICH WOULD ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
CEASE. ONCE THIS OCCURS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD BE FAVORED, WHICH
COULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID-50S MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL COME AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO
COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES THAT EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE FIRST OF WHICH BEING
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A BROAD ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOULD
THE LOW EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES, THERE WILL
BE THE CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER, A
LOW PRESSURE THAT STAYS FURTHER NORTH COULD KEEP SNOW CONFINED TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER-40S, BUT SNOWFALL COULD LOWER
THESE ESTIMATES BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES. IN ADDITION, ENSEMBLE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD PROLONG THE MILD
CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 404 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...TRIGG/DAVIS
AVIATION...024
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