950
FXUS63 KGLD 280903
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
203 AM MST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OUR NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY, THANKFULLY MAJOR
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO 1 INCH AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 F ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST WED JAN 28 2026
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH LARGER
SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE MODERATING WITH RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES IN
THE 4-5C RANGE THIS MORNING. AS DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY LOST THE BULK
OF THEIR SNOW PACK. ADVECTION FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
HELP SPEED UP THE MELT OF LINGERING DEEP SNOW PACK IN THE SOUTH
AND EAST AS WELL, SO WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT COOLER THAN
IN THE NORTHWEST EVEN COOLER AREAS SHOULD AT LEAST RISE TO THE
UPPER 40S IF NOT 50 IN THIS PATTERN.
A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH RECENT GUIDANCE/TRENDS FAVORING THE BEST FORCING SPLITTING
TO THE SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE REGION WHILE DEEPER DRY AIR
REMAINS ENTRENCHED. THIS HAS SHIFTED ANY WINDOW FOR LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA AND
LOWERED THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG OR DRIZZLE LOCALLY.
THERE IS STILL A WINDOW FOR SHALLOWER RADIATIONAL FOG/STRATUS IN
THE EAST, AND THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL FOR VIS 3SM OR LESS WITHIN
NBM. HOWEVER, VERY DRY AIR RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THICKER/OPAQUE CLOUDS IN THE 10-15KFT LAYER
LIMITING IDEAL RADIATIONAL POTENTIAL LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN PUBLIC
IMPACTS (VIS LESS THAN 1SM).
AFTER THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY, BUT STILL
SEASONAL FOR MOST AREAS (40S), WITH EASTERN LOCATIONS MORE
LIKELY TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. DEEP DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH WEAKER MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES MAY
JUST BRINING PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND VIRGA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WAVE FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST WED JAN 28 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: AN OMEGA BLOCK, THE CENTER (RIDGE) OF WHICH
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST,
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL
REMAIN AT/NEAR AN INFLECTION POINT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN,
BETWEEN THE WEST CONUS RIDGE AND EAST CONUS TROUGH.. IN NW TO N
FLOW ALOFT. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EROSION OF THE
WEST CONUS /BLOCKING/ RIDGE WILL HERALD A TRANSITION TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW IN MANITOBA/ONTARIO WILL
DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES (FRI)
INTO THE OHIO AND CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY (FRI NIGHT). PROFOUND
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE /SURFACE PRESSURE RISES/ IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL DRIVE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST (FRI MORNING) AND CENTRAL PLAINS/CENTRAL
MS RIVER VALLEY (FRI AFT-EVE).. THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH WILL
MANIFEST AS AN ABRUPT NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT AND EFFECTIVE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE MORNING (RED WILLOW COUNTY)
TO MID-AFTERNOON (GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTIES). THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS, CHARACTERIZED BY 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -24C, WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH MN-IA (FRI) INTO MO (FRI NIGHT). ON
THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS (IN THE TRI-STATE
AREA), GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
DEPOSIT 850 MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF -12 TO -15C BY LATE FRI
AFT-EVE. EXPECT BREEZY (~20-30 MPH) NORTHEAST WINDS AND AN
ATYPICAL TEMPERATURE TREND FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE 20'S FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID-LEVEL (~850-750 MB) FRONTOGENESIS
ACCOMPANYING AND IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIQUID EQUIV PRECIP AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM A TRACE TO ~0.05" (A DUSTING TO ~1" OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION). EXPECT OVERNIGHT (SAT MORNING) LOWS RANGING FROM
10-15F IN THE WEST TO 0-5F EAST OF HWY 83.. WHERE WIND CHILL
READINGS AS LOW AS -5 TO -15F ARE EXPECTED.
SATURDAY: LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION ON SAT.. AS 1045-1050 MB HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL-EASTERN KS AND OK. EXPECT A WEST-EAST
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES, WARMEST (MID-UPPER 40'S) IN THE WEST
AND COLDEST (UPPER 20'S) IN THE EAST, WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER DURING THE AFT-EVE.. AS SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIGS SSE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SUN-MON: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND AS THE
BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WEST CONUS RAISES ANCHOR AND PROGRESSES
EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES (SUN) AND CENTRAL PLAINS (MON).
TUE-WED: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO TROUGHING
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MID-WEEK, ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF RENEWED AND RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. EXPECT A COOLING TREND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1015 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...TRIGG
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