846
FXUS63 KGLD 282048
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
148 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS FORECAST ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 25
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOGAN AND GOVE COUNTIES FROM AROUND 5-8AM CT
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 5-10% IN OCCURRING.
- OUR NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY, THANKFULLY MAJOR
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO 1 INCH AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 F ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 144 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY. AT THE SURFACE
A TROUGH HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO MAINLY WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND
10-15 MPH AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON WITH SOME SPORADIC WIND
GUSTS OUT OF THE SNOW PACK UP TO 25 MPH. VERY LOCALIZED AND
BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE
KANSAS/COLORADO STATE LINE WHERE TEMPERATURE ARE FORECAST TO BE
WARMEST IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND WHERE HUMIDITY MAY FALL TO
AROUND 15%. DEWPOINTS
AS THE EVENING GOES ON A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS LEADING TO VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
LOW PROGRESSES THROUGH THE NIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
EASTERLY MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 WHICH LOOKS TO BRING IN
SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN PART TO THE WEAK MOISTURE
ADVECTION, CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED EASTERN WINDS FOR FOG AND ALONG
WITH ANY ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW. ANY
FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE FREEZING FOG AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE WELL BELOW FREEZING. AT THIS TIME NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT
DENSE FREEZING FOG DUE TO HOW SHALLOW THE SATURATED LAYER IS BUT
SOME PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT. STILL AM SEEING A
WEAK SIGNAL FOR A WINDOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO SURFACE OMEGA
AROUND -3 TO 05 MICROBARS FROM AROUND 5AM CT THROUGH 8AM CT MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF GOVE AND LOGAN COUNTIES. A NOTABLE
SOUTHEASTERN SHIFT HAS BEEN NOTED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE SURFACE
OMEGA AND WITH THE LREF PROBABILITY OF A TRACE OF ICE. THE 12Z HREF
USING THE FRAM MAX QPF ISN'T OVERLY EXCITED AS WELL FOR IT IN OUR
CWA. WHILE I DON'T WANT TO RULE IT COMPLETELY OUT WITH THE SHIFTING
SIGNAL OF IT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SILENT POPS.
A BIT COOLER DAY IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO
LINGERING STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM A STRONG AND ELONGATED LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. FURTHER TO THE WEST HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S ARE FORECAST. A STRONGER 850MB 25-30 KNOT JET IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ROUGHLY ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO LINE
LEADING TO SOME BREEZIER WINDS ACROSS THAT PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT HIGHER DUE TO THE
WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MITIGATING ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE DAY. ALSO AM SEEING SOME WEAK
OMEGA OFF AND ON IN THE 850-700MB LEVEL ACCORDING TO 09Z AND
15Z RAP SO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES OR VERY ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS BUT WON'T AMOUNT TO MUCH SHOULD ANY ONE LOCALE BE
AFFECTED.
THE BULK OF THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA FRIDAY WITH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FORECAST TO BE
BELOW FREEZING FOR HIGHS. FURTHER TO THE WEST THE MAIN QUESTION IS
HOW FAR WEST AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLDER AIR REACH. A LARGE
SPREAD AROUND 10 DEGREES IS SEEN FOR 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE
TEMPERATURES. TYPICALLY WITH FRONTS THEY TEND TO MOVE IN QUICKER AND
BE MORE SHALLOW BUT IN THE CASE OF THIS FRONT IT IS ESSENTIALLY
LOBING INTO THE AREA. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SHOW THE SPREAD AS WELL
WITH THE COLDEST OF THE AIR MOVING IN AFTER SUNSET AND/OR NOT
REACHING THE STATE LINE AT ALL. IF A QUICKER AND FURTHER WEST
SOLUTION WHERE TO OCCUR THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD
WOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO WARM. CURRENTLY DON'T HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO GO QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SCENARIO. LIGHT SNOW
IS ALSO FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WITH A DUSTING TO UP TO
ONE INCH FORECASTED. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND TO BELOW ZERO ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION IF IT
CLEARS OUT QUICKER AND LIGHTER WINDS MOVING IN TEMPERATURES
COULD DROP EVEN FURTHER. CONCERNS FOR WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO
THE
-10 TO -15F RANGE STILL EXISTS WITH THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ACROSS NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST WED JAN 28 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: AN OMEGA BLOCK, THE CENTER (RIDGE) OF WHICH
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST,
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL
REMAIN AT/NEAR AN INFLECTION POINT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN,
BETWEEN THE WEST CONUS RIDGE AND EAST CONUS TROUGH.. IN NW TO N
FLOW ALOFT. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EROSION OF THE
WEST CONUS /BLOCKING/ RIDGE WILL HERALD A TRANSITION TO A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW IN MANITOBA/ONTARIO WILL
DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES (FRI)
INTO THE OHIO AND CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY (FRI NIGHT). PROFOUND
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE /SURFACE PRESSURE RISES/ IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL DRIVE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST (FRI MORNING) AND CENTRAL PLAINS/CENTRAL
MS RIVER VALLEY (FRI AFT-EVE).. THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH WILL
MANIFEST AS AN ABRUPT NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT AND EFFECTIVE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE MORNING (RED WILLOW COUNTY)
TO MID-AFTERNOON (GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTIES). THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS, CHARACTERIZED BY 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -24C, WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH MN-IA (FRI) INTO MO (FRI NIGHT). ON
THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS (IN THE TRI-STATE
AREA), GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
DEPOSIT 850 MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF -12 TO -15C BY LATE FRI
AFT-EVE. EXPECT BREEZY (~20-30 MPH) NORTHEAST WINDS AND AN
ATYPICAL TEMPERATURE TREND FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE 20'S FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID-LEVEL (~850-750 MB) FRONTOGENESIS
ACCOMPANYING AND IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIQUID EQUIV PRECIP AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM A TRACE TO ~0.05" (A DUSTING TO ~1" OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION). EXPECT OVERNIGHT (SAT MORNING) LOWS RANGING FROM
10-15F IN THE WEST TO 0-5F EAST OF HWY 83.. WHERE WIND CHILL
READINGS AS LOW AS -5 TO -15F ARE EXPECTED.
SATURDAY: LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION ON SAT.. AS 1045-1050 MB HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL-EASTERN KS AND OK. EXPECT A WEST-EAST
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES, WARMEST (MID-UPPER 40'S) IN THE WEST
AND COLDEST (UPPER 20'S) IN THE EAST, WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER DURING THE AFT-EVE.. AS SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIGS SSE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SUN-MON: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND AS THE
BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WEST CONUS RAISES ANCHOR AND PROGRESSES
EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES (SUN) AND CENTRAL PLAINS (MON).
TUE-WED: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO TROUGHING
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MID-WEEK, ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF RENEWED AND RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. EXPECT A COOLING TREND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1016 AM MST WED JAN 28 2026
WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN STRATUS DEVELOPING AND
IMPACTING MCK; GLD MAY BE ON THE EDGE OF THE STATUS SO WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR SOME FOG AS WELL
IMPACTING MCK OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T QUITE THERE TO
INCLUDE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT THIS TIME. SHOULD FOG IMPACT
THE TERMINAL THEN FREEZING FOG WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE LEADING TO
SOME ICING CONCERNS. AS I MENTIONED CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS IS
HIGHER THAN FOG OCCURRENCE SO WILL TARGET THIS TAF TOWARDS THE
STRATUS, UPCOMING SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR UPCOMING TAFS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...TRIGG
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