219
FXUS63 KGLD 282108
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
208 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS FORECAST ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 25
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOGAN AND GOVE COUNTIES FROM AROUND 5-8AM CT
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 5-10% IN OCCURRING.
- OUR NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY, THANKFULLY MAJOR
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO 1 INCH AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 F ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 144 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY. AT THE SURFACE
A TROUGH HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO MAINLY WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND
10-15 MPH AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON WITH SOME SPORADIC WIND
GUSTS OUT OF THE SNOW PACK UP TO 25 MPH. VERY LOCALIZED AND
BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE
KANSAS/COLORADO STATE LINE WHERE TEMPERATURE ARE FORECAST TO BE
WARMEST IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND WHERE HUMIDITY MAY FALL TO
AROUND 15%. DEWPOINTS
AS THE EVENING GOES ON A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS LEADING TO VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
LOW PROGRESSES THROUGH THE NIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
EASTERLY MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 WHICH LOOKS TO BRING IN
SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN PART TO THE WEAK MOISTURE
ADVECTION, CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED EASTERN WINDS FOR FOG AND ALONG
WITH ANY ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW. ANY
FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE FREEZING FOG AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE WELL BELOW FREEZING. AT THIS TIME NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT
DENSE FREEZING FOG DUE TO HOW SHALLOW THE SATURATED LAYER IS BUT
SOME PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT. STILL AM SEEING A
WEAK SIGNAL FOR A WINDOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO SURFACE OMEGA
AROUND -3 TO 05 MICROBARS FROM AROUND 5AM CT THROUGH 8AM CT MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF GOVE AND LOGAN COUNTIES. A NOTABLE
SOUTHEASTERN SHIFT HAS BEEN NOTED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE SURFACE
OMEGA AND WITH THE LREF PROBABILITY OF A TRACE OF ICE. THE 12Z HREF
USING THE FRAM MAX QPF ISN'T OVERLY EXCITED AS WELL FOR IT IN OUR
CWA. WHILE I DON'T WANT TO RULE IT COMPLETELY OUT WITH THE SHIFTING
SIGNAL OF IT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SILENT POPS.
A BIT COOLER DAY IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO
LINGERING STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM A STRONG AND ELONGATED LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. FURTHER TO THE WEST HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S ARE FORECAST. A STRONGER 850MB 25-30 KNOT JET IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ROUGHLY ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO LINE
LEADING TO SOME BREEZIER WINDS ACROSS THAT PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT HIGHER DUE TO THE
WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MITIGATING ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE DAY. ALSO AM SEEING SOME WEAK
OMEGA OFF AND ON IN THE 850-700MB LEVEL ACCORDING TO 09Z AND
15Z RAP SO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES OR VERY ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS BUT WON'T AMOUNT TO MUCH SHOULD ANY ONE LOCALE BE
AFFECTED.
THE BULK OF THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA FRIDAY WITH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FORECAST TO BE
BELOW FREEZING FOR HIGHS. FURTHER TO THE WEST THE MAIN QUESTION IS
HOW FAR WEST AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLDER AIR REACH. A LARGE
SPREAD AROUND 10 DEGREES IS SEEN FOR 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE
TEMPERATURES. TYPICALLY WITH FRONTS THEY TEND TO MOVE IN QUICKER AND
BE MORE SHALLOW BUT IN THE CASE OF THIS FRONT IT IS ESSENTIALLY
LOBING INTO THE AREA. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SHOW THE SPREAD AS WELL
WITH THE COLDEST OF THE AIR MOVING IN AFTER SUNSET AND/OR NOT
REACHING THE STATE LINE AT ALL. IF A QUICKER AND FURTHER WEST
SOLUTION WHERE TO OCCUR THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD
WOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO WARM. CURRENTLY DON'T HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO GO QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SCENARIO. LIGHT SNOW
IS ALSO FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WITH A DUSTING TO UP TO
ONE INCH FORECASTED. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND TO BELOW ZERO ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION IF IT
CLEARS OUT QUICKER AND LIGHTER WINDS MOVING IN TEMPERATURES
COULD DROP EVEN FURTHER. CONCERNS FOR WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO
THE
-10 TO -15F RANGE STILL EXISTS WITH THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ACROSS NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 206 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
SATURDAY 12Z TO MONDAY 12Z:
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
BY SATURDAY MORNING, AS A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS
THIS OCCURS, AN ATTENDANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CURRENTLY, SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
THE CWA ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. WARMING
COULD BE PROMOTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, BUT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW, AND THUS, THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, WILL PROGRESS. SOME MODEL RUNS
INDICATE THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH WOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
COOLING UNTIL THE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID-30S IN THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION, AND IN THE MID TO UPPER-40S IN THE
WEST. HOWEVER, IF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD AT
A SLOWER PACE, WE COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE AROUND 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
ADDITIONALLY, A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS FEATURE WOULD
ALLOW FOR A WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TO FORM ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS, AND POSSIBLY A DUSTING OF SNOW FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST REGION.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THIS FEATURE WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES, OR REMAIN IN THE MIDWEST. SHOULD THE FEATURE DIG, A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WOULD BE ALLOWED TO ENCROACH INTO THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE CWA WOULD BE
NORTHWESTERLY FROM THIS FEATURE, PROVIDING MORE COLD AIR TO THE
FORECAST REGION. DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MORNING COULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER-40S BY MIDDAY, BUT BEGIN TO
DROP AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, IF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS ALLOWED TO STAY IN THE MIDWEST, FURTHER WARMING COULD BE
PROMOTED INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY IN THE MID-50S ACROSS THE CWA.
MONDAY 12Z TO TUESDAY 12Z:
BY MONDAY MORNING, RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REPLACE THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR APPROXIMATELY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION, AND WARMING TO CONTINUE. DEPENDING ON
WHETHER WARMING OR COOLING TAKES PLACE DURING INITIAL PHASES OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST, WE COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S, OR REMAIN IN THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOW
50S.
TUESDAY 12Z TO THURSDAY 12Z:
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE FORECAST REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND COULD BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOWFALL FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GOING TO FORM. ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT MOST SCENARIOS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY SMALLER AMOUNTS OF
SNOWFALL, BUT ELEVATED TOTALS COULD OCCUR IF THE SURFACE LOW FORMS
TO OUR SOUTH AROUND THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. CURRENTLY,
MOST SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FALL
BETWEEN TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL, WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY
FORECAST IN THE MID-40S ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IF
SNOWFALL IS ABLE TO OCCUR FROM THIS SYSTEM, HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
OR BELOW FREEZING ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF WIND GUSTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THAT COULD CROSS 30 MPH. RH IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO
DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS AROUND THIS TIME, SO FIRE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN. HOWEVER, FIRES DURING THESE
TIMEFRAMES WOULD BE CAPABLE OF SPREADING IF NOT PROPERLY CONTROLLED.
ADDITIONALLY, IF THERE IS SNOWFALL WITH THIS EVENT, HIGH WINDS COULD
CREATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR BLOWING SNOW, WHICH WOULD REDUCE
VISIBILITY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1016 AM MST WED JAN 28 2026
WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN STRATUS DEVELOPING AND
IMPACTING MCK; GLD MAY BE ON THE EDGE OF THE STATUS SO WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR SOME FOG AS WELL
IMPACTING MCK OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T QUITE THERE TO
INCLUDE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT THIS TIME. SHOULD FOG IMPACT
THE TERMINAL THEN FREEZING FOG WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE LEADING TO
SOME ICING CONCERNS. AS I MENTIONED CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS IS
HIGHER THAN FOG OCCURRENCE SO WILL TARGET THIS TAF TOWARDS THE
STRATUS, UPCOMING SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR UPCOMING TAFS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...TRIGG/DAVIS
AVIATION...TRIGG
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