980
FXUS63 KGLD 290852
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
152 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OUR NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY, THANKFULLY MAJOR
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO 1 INCH AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 F ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 144 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY. AT THE
SURFACE A TROUGH HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO MAINLY
WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 10-15 MPH AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON WITH SOME SPORADIC
WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE SNOW PACK UP TO 25 MPH. VERY LOCALIZED AND
BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE
KANSAS/COLORADO STATE LINE WHERE TEMPERATURE ARE FORECAST TO BE
WARMEST IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND WHERE HUMIDITY MAY FALL TO
AROUND 15%. DEWPOINTS
AS THE EVENING GOES ON A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS LEADING TO VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES THROUGH THE NIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME EASTERLY MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 WHICH
LOOKS TO BRING IN SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN PART
TO THE WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION, CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED EASTERN
WINDS FOR FOG AND ALONG WITH ANY ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
FREEZING FOG AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL BELOW
FREEZING. AT THIS TIME NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT DENSE FREEZING
FOG DUE TO HOW SHALLOW THE SATURATED LAYER IS BUT SOME PATCHY
DENSE FREEZING FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT. STILL AM SEEING A WEAK
SIGNAL FOR A WINDOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO SURFACE OMEGA
AROUND -3 TO 05 MICROBARS FROM AROUND 5AM CT THROUGH 8AM CT
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF GOVE AND LOGAN COUNTIES. A
NOTABLE SOUTHEASTERN SHIFT HAS BEEN NOTED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH
THE SURFACE OMEGA AND WITH THE LREF PROBABILITY OF A TRACE OF
ICE. THE 12Z HREF USING THE FRAM MAX QPF ISN'T OVERLY EXCITED AS
WELL FOR IT IN OUR CWA. WHILE I DON'T WANT TO RULE IT
COMPLETELY OUT WITH THE SHIFTING SIGNAL OF IT WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE SILENT POPS.
A BIT COOLER DAY IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING
DUE TO LINGERING STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY AND A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM A STRONG AND ELONGATED LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. FURTHER TO THE WEST HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S ARE FORECAST. A STRONGER 850MB 25-30 KNOT JET
IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ROUGHLY ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO
LINE LEADING TO SOME BREEZIER WINDS ACROSS THAT PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT HIGHER
DUE TO THE WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
MITIGATING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE DAY. ALSO AM SEEING
SOME WEAK OMEGA OFF AND ON IN THE 850-700MB LEVEL ACCORDING TO
09Z AND 15Z RAP SO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES OR VERY ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS BUT WON'T AMOUNT TO MUCH SHOULD ANY ONE LOCALE BE
AFFECTED.
THE BULK OF THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FORECAST
TO BE BELOW FREEZING FOR HIGHS. FURTHER TO THE WEST THE MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THE COLDER AIR
REACH. A LARGE SPREAD AROUND 10 DEGREES IS SEEN FOR 25TH AND
75TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURES. TYPICALLY WITH FRONTS THEY TEND TO
MOVE IN QUICKER AND BE MORE SHALLOW BUT IN THE CASE OF THIS
FRONT IT IS ESSENTIALLY LOBING INTO THE AREA. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ALSO SHOW THE SPREAD AS WELL WITH THE COLDEST OF THE AIR MOVING
IN AFTER SUNSET AND/OR NOT REACHING THE STATE LINE AT ALL. IF A
QUICKER AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTION WHERE TO OCCUR THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD WOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO WARM.
CURRENTLY DON'T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE SCENARIO. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH
THE DAY WITH A DUSTING TO UP TO ONE INCH FORECASTED. COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
LOWS AROUND TO BELOW ZERO ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION IF IT CLEARS OUT QUICKER AND
LIGHTER WINDS MOVING IN TEMPERATURES COULD DROP EVEN FURTHER.
CONCERNS FOR WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15F RANGE
STILL EXISTS WITH THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ACROSS NORTON AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 150 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
SATURDAY: LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION ON SAT, AS 1045-1050 MB HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL-EASTERN KS AND OK. EXPECT A WEST-EAST
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES, WARMEST (MID-UPPER 40'S) IN THE WEST
AND COLDEST (UPPER 20'S) IN THE EAST.. WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIGS SSE TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SUN-MON: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND AS THE
BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WEST CONUS RAISES ANCHOR AND PROGRESSES
EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES (SUN) AND CENTRAL PLAINS (MON).
TUE-WED: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO TROUGHING
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MID-WEEK.. ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF RENEWED AND RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. EXPECT A COOLING TREND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1004 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG
AFTER 12Z ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE EXTENT OF THE FOG, WHICH
MAINLY OCCURS NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER AREA. AS A
RESULT, WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS AT KGLD, BUT NOT KMCK. CONFIDENCE AT KGLD IS
MEDIUM AT BEST. OTHERWISE, WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN SURFACE
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT KGLD, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS,
DIMINISHING BY SUNSET.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...024
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