731
FXUS63 KGLD 122016
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
116 PM MST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.
- RISK FOR HIGH WIND, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND BLOWING DUST ON
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST THU FEB 12 2026
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NORTHERN COLORADO
AND SOUTHERN WYOMING TONIGHT, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, AS IT APPROACHES
THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER OVERNIGHT IT WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES
OR A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH, BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ARE LOW, CONFINED
MAINLY TO NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY, COLORADO. OTHERWISE, WILL SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PERSISTENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL FINALLY BEGIN
FRIDAY NIGHT, SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
IN FROM COLORADO. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. TOTAL QPF FOR
THE EVENT WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH, AND
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH NORTH OF I-70, THOUGH THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO A HALF INCH
IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP. HRRR DOES SHOW UP TO 300 J/KG OF
MUCAPE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
SOUTH OF I-70 AND IS EVEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
THAT AREA. AFTER 12Z, THE MUCAPE RAPIDLY GOES TO ZERO, ENDING
THE THREAT OF CONVECTION. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S AND LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH CLEARING
SKIES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST THU FEB 12 2026
RIDGING LOOKS TO BE OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY, AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TRAVELS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO
THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ESTABLISH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY, WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER, DRIER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO INITIAL
PERIODS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER-60S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY, IN ADDITION TO RH
VALUES IN THE UPPER- TEENS TO LOW-20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA. FIRE WEATHER IS NOT YET A MAJOR CONCERN, AS RH
VALUES WOULD NEED TO DROP A FEW MORE POINTS FROM THE CURRENT
FORECAST TO REACH THRESHOLDS FOR LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
STILL, NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO, WHICH COULD STILL
ALLOW FIRES TO SPREAD MORE RAPIDLY THAN NORMAL. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, ALTHOUGH WIND
GUSTS MAY BE A BIT LOWER. CURRENTLY, NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ABOUT A 60% CHANCE EXISTS THAT WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO REACH LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO. CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING
BEING NEEDED EITHER DAY RESTS AROUND 5-10%, WITH SUNDAY SLIGHTLY
MORE CONCERNING THAN MONDAY DUE TO THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS.
WARM, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY, AS
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AN 80-100 KT JET STREAK EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND
COLORADO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE. A COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE CAUSED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK'S LEFT EXIT
REGION AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS MAY PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE
SURFACE SYSTEM. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW COULD FORM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS PROCESS. WIND GUSTS MAY BE ALLOWED TO REACH
25+ MPH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS,
WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH FORECAST FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE KS-CO
BORDER. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS TO EXCEED HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO. ADDITIONALLY, RH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER-TEENS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD IMPLICATE FIRE
WEATHER AS A CONCERN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ABOUT A 50% CHANCE OR BETTER
FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED IS HIGHEST
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO, RESTING AROUND 75% OR BETTER. IF HIGHER END
WIND GUSTS ARE ALLOWED TO EXTEND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AS GUIDANCE INDICATES IS POSSIBLE, FURTHER RFWS MAY BE
NEEDED. ALSO, CONSIDERING THE DRY CONDITIONS FORECASTED BETWEEN
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY, BLOWING DUST MAY BECOME AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-60S TO MID-70S ARE POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WINTER WEATHER MAY BE
EXPERIENCED AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
ANYTIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE SYSTEM DOES
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY WARMER CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID-50S TO LOW-60S,
BUT COULD BE LOWER IF THIS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS ABLE TO MOVE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY FORM
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH SNOW CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
IF IT IS ALLOWED TO FALL DURING THE NIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
COLDER. COOLER CONDITIONS WOULD BE FAVORED TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD ONCE THIS SYSTEM HAS PASSED THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DAVIS/024
AVIATION...024
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