275
FXUS63 KGLD 122326
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
426 PM MST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.
- RISK FOR HIGH WIND, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND BLOWING DUST ON
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST THU FEB 12 2026
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NORTHERN COLORADO
AND SOUTHERN WYOMING TONIGHT, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, AS IT APPROACHES
THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER OVERNIGHT IT WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES
OR A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH, BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ARE LOW, CONFINED
MAINLY TO NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY, COLORADO. OTHERWISE, WILL SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH PERSISTENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL FINALLY BEGIN
FRIDAY NIGHT, SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
IN FROM COLORADO. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. TOTAL QPF FOR
THE EVENT WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH, AND
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH NORTH OF I-70, THOUGH THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO A HALF INCH
IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP. HRRR DOES SHOW UP TO 300 J/KG OF
MUCAPE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
SOUTH OF I-70 AND IS EVEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
THAT AREA. AFTER 12Z, THE MUCAPE RAPIDLY GOES TO ZERO, ENDING
THE THREAT OF CONVECTION. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S AND LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH CLEARING
SKIES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST THU FEB 12 2026
RIDGING LOOKS TO BE OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY, AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TRAVELS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO
THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ESTABLISH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY, WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER, DRIER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO INITIAL
PERIODS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER-60S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY, IN ADDITION TO RH
VALUES IN THE UPPER- TEENS TO LOW-20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA. FIRE WEATHER IS NOT YET A MAJOR CONCERN, AS RH
VALUES WOULD NEED TO DROP A FEW MORE POINTS FROM THE CURRENT
FORECAST TO REACH THRESHOLDS FOR LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
STILL, NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO, WHICH COULD STILL
ALLOW FIRES TO SPREAD MORE RAPIDLY THAN NORMAL. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, ALTHOUGH WIND
GUSTS MAY BE A BIT LOWER. CURRENTLY, NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ABOUT A 60% CHANCE EXISTS THAT WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO REACH LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO. CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING
BEING NEEDED EITHER DAY RESTS AROUND 5-10%, WITH SUNDAY SLIGHTLY
MORE CONCERNING THAN MONDAY DUE TO THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS.
WARM, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY, AS
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. AN 80-100 KT JET STREAK EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WYOMING AND COLORADO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE. A
COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE CAUSED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET STREAK'S LEFT EXIT REGION AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS MAY PROMOTE
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW COULD FORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
PROCESS. WIND GUSTS MAY BE ALLOWED TO REACH 25+ MPH ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH WIND
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH FORECAST FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE KS-CO BORDER.
NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
TO EXCEED HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO. ADDITIONALLY, RH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER-TEENS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD IMPLICATE
FIRE WEATHER AS A CONCERN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ABOUT A 50% CHANCE
OR BETTER FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA ACROSS
THE TRI-STATE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING
NEEDED IS HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO, RESTING AROUND 75% OR
BETTER. IF HIGHER END WIND GUSTS ARE ALLOWED TO EXTEND INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS GUIDANCE INDICATES IS
POSSIBLE, FURTHER RFWS MAY BE NEEDED. ALSO, CONSIDERING THE DRY
CONDITIONS FORECASTED BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY, BLOWING DUST
MAY BECOME AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER-60S TO MID-70S ARE POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WINTER
WEATHER MAY BE EXPERIENCED AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA, THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM
COULD MOVE THROUGH THE CWA ANYTIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY
WARMER CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID-50S TO LOW-60S, BUT COULD BE LOWER IF
THIS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS ABLE TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY FORM OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH SNOW CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
IF IT IS ALLOWED TO FALL DURING THE NIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
COLDER. COOLER CONDITIONS WOULD BE FAVORED TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD ONCE THIS SYSTEM HAS PASSED THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 423 PM MST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS, WITH CLOUD COVER CONFINED TO OCCASIONAL CIRRUS
AT/ABOVE 10,000 FT AGL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SSE AFTER
SUNRISE AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING
(GLD) TO EARLY AFTERNOON (MCK).
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page