388
FXUS63 KGLD 130921
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
221 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL END AROUND SUNRISE. MAIN RAIN
CHANCES START THIS EVENING LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
- EARLY MORNING SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY
MORNING COULD LEAD TO BLACK ICE.
- RISK FOR HIGH WIND, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND BLOWING DUST ON
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
THIS MORNING, AS OUR RIDGE LEAVES THE AREA AHEAD OF OUR INCOMING
TROUGH, 500 MB VORTICITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS CAUSING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CWA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS VERY
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND WILL LEAD TO VERY LITTLE, IF ANY
ACCUMULATION DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY PBL. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THIS MORNING WILL BE RAIN/SNOW MIX, BUT
THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR ALONG AND
NORTH OF U.S. 36. THE WINTRY MIX AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO FREEZE RECENTLY FALLEN RAIN COULD LEAD TO PATCHY
BLACK ICE THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
BY SUNRISE AND ONLY ROUGE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN
12-21Z.
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL STICK AROUND ALL DAY, STUNTING
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. FOR THE MAIN SYSTEM THIS EVENING,
THE PATH IS NOW TAKING A FARTHER NORTHERN ROUTE. MOST MODELS NOW
HAVE THE LOW MOVING OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AROUND 9Z. HOWEVER,
AROUND 21-3Z, 250 MB JET STREAM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WILL BE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE AROUND 100-500 J/KG
OF MUCAPE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THIS COULD TO LEAD TO SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE MAIN STRATIFORM RAIN MOVES IN. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT IT'S NOT EVERY DAY IN FEBRUARY THAT
WE GET THE CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORMS. THE PEAK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OCCUR AROUND 6-18Z SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 18-0Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM NORTON, KS TO CHEYENNE WELLS, CO. IN THIS AREA, REFS IS SHOWING
AN 80%+ PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 0.25" QPF BY SATURDAY EVENING,
THE HREF SHOWS A 70-80%+ PROBABILITY, WHILE THE NBM HAS A 50-60%
CHANCE OF THE SAME. DUE TO THE FAIRLY CLOSE SPREAD OF POSSIBILITIES,
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS SITTING AROUND 75%. NORTHWEST OF THE LINE,
QPF VALUES RAPIDLY DROP OFF, RANGING FROM 0.2" TO TRACE WITH LOWEST
AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. 75% PERCENTILES OF THESE THREE
GUIDANCES RANGE FROM 0.55-0.9" QPF.
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL INSULATE THE SURFACE WELL, LIKELY
KEEPING LOWS AND HIGHS BETWEEN THE MID 30S TO MID 50S FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY, RESPECTIVELY. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW BRIEFLY MIX
IN AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER, THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM THIS
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE OVERNIGHT FREEZING LEADING TO BLACK ICE. AS
MENTIONED, FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO LARGELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, BUT
EASTERN COLORADO AND DUNDY COUNTY COULD COOL TO BELOW FREEZING.
SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP TO
AROUND 30 FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE TIME OF THE
GREATEST RISK OF BLACK ICING, SO BE PREPARED FOR SLICK
CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST THU FEB 12 2026
RIDGING LOOKS TO BE OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY, AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TRAVELS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO
THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ESTABLISH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY, WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER, DRIER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO INITIAL
PERIODS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER-60S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY, IN ADDITION TO RH
VALUES IN THE UPPER- TEENS TO LOW-20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA. FIRE WEATHER IS NOT YET A MAJOR CONCERN, AS RH
VALUES WOULD NEED TO DROP A FEW MORE POINTS FROM THE CURRENT
FORECAST TO REACH THRESHOLDS FOR LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
STILL, NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO, WHICH COULD STILL
ALLOW FIRES TO SPREAD MORE RAPIDLY THAN NORMAL. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, ALTHOUGH WIND
GUSTS MAY BE A BIT LOWER. CURRENTLY, NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ABOUT A 60% CHANCE EXISTS THAT WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO REACH LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO. CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING
BEING NEEDED EITHER DAY RESTS AROUND 5-10%, WITH SUNDAY SLIGHTLY
MORE CONCERNING THAN MONDAY DUE TO THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS.
WARM, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY, AS
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. AN 80-100 KT JET STREAK EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WYOMING AND COLORADO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE. A
COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE CAUSED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET STREAK'S LEFT EXIT REGION AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS MAY PROMOTE
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW COULD FORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
PROCESS. WIND GUSTS MAY BE ALLOWED TO REACH 25+ MPH ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH WIND
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH FORECAST FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE KS-CO BORDER.
NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
TO EXCEED HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO. ADDITIONALLY, RH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER-TEENS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD IMPLICATE
FIRE WEATHER AS A CONCERN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ABOUT A 50% CHANCE
OR BETTER FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA ACROSS
THE TRI-STATE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING
NEEDED IS HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO, RESTING AROUND 75% OR
BETTER. IF HIGHER END WIND GUSTS ARE ALLOWED TO EXTEND INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS GUIDANCE INDICATES IS
POSSIBLE, FURTHER RFWS MAY BE NEEDED. ALSO, CONSIDERING THE DRY
CONDITIONS FORECASTED BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY, BLOWING DUST
MAY BECOME AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER-60S TO MID-70S ARE POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WINTER
WEATHER MAY BE EXPERIENCED AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA, THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM
COULD MOVE THROUGH THE CWA ANYTIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY
WARMER CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID-50S TO LOW-60S, BUT COULD BE LOWER IF
THIS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS ABLE TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY FORM OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH SNOW CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
IF IT IS ALLOWED TO FALL DURING THE NIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
COLDER. COOLER CONDITIONS WOULD BE FAVORED TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD ONCE THIS SYSTEM HAS PASSED THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1004 PM MST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME WEAK, SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. KGLD HAS A 25-30%
CHANCE OF SEEING THIS PRECIPITATION MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL
LEADING TO BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 6-9Z. KMCK HAS A
10-15% CHANCE OF THE SAME BETWEEN 10-13Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN
VARIABLE UNTIL THE MIDDAY, BUT A FEW SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 15
KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THEN.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING INTO THE
AREA BETWEEN 0-6Z. INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET IS STILL
IN QUESTION, HENCE THE PROB30 GROUPS. AROUND AND AFTER 6Z,
EXPECT RAPIDLY LOWERING CEILINGS AS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN, LIKELY IFR CONDITIONS. ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HAVE INCREASED
ICING THREATS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...CA
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