849
FXUS63 KGLD 132003
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
103 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES START THIS EVENING LASTING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
- EARLY MORNING SUB-FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING COULD LEAD TO BLACK
ICE.
- LOCALIZED TO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY IS THE MOST
CONCERNING WITH HIGH WINDS AND BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL AS WELL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
SKIES CLEARED OUT QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, BUT AS
OF 11:30 AM MT, WE ARE SEEING SOME CLOUDS START TO CROSS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
TODAY, WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WHERE LITTLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD IMPACT OUR HEATING POTENTIAL
UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING, THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHTS IN THE ~11 PM TO 3 AM MT TIMEFRAME. AS THE LOW
MOVES, WE COULD SEE SOME CONVERGENCE OF GULF MOISTURE AND
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA
HELPING TO BOOST OUR RAIN CHANCES AFTER 6 PM MT AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE AROUND 50-80%. THE
ENTIRE AREA COULD SEE SOME RAIN TONIGHT, THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE LESS THAN 0.25". SOUTH OF I-70 COULD SEE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.5" WITH ABOUT 60% OF CONFIDENCE. STORM CHANCES
HAVE DECREASED FOR THE AREA GIVEN THE DELAYED START OF THE
PRECIPITATION. THE PEAK WINDOW FOR THE PRECIPITATION IS BETWEEN
11 PM TONIGHT THROUGH ~11 AM MT SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S, SO THE GROUND SHOULD STAY TOO WARM FOR ANY ICING
POTENTIAL TONIGHT. HOWEVER, ANY WATER THAT REMAINS ON ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS TOMORROW NIGHT COULD FREEZE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD STAY A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE
LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ON SUNDAY THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS RED RIVER BORDER WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE START OF THIS
PATTERN WILL BEGIN OUR WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION AS AFTERNOON
HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE COULD
BE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WE WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR FALLING DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES TO SEE IF A RED FLAG WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED. FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN 30% FOR CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S SUNDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
SUNDAY, THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR OUR REGION AS WE ARE
FORECAST TO BE UNDER A WEAK RIDGE WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
WEST COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE MID/HIGH 60S WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE WINDY FOR OUR COLORADO
COUNTIES WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH)
VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE HIGH TEENS/LOW 20S. FIRE WEATHER COULD BE
A CONCERN SUNDAY IF RH VALUES DROP FURTHER DUE TO THE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
CONDITIONS REMAIN WARM MONDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S.
WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS SEVERE, BUT GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES. PERIODS OF ELEVATED CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST IN THE TEENS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA (CWA) WHEN OUR LOWEST RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE CONCERNING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MODEL TO MODEL RUN, WE ARE FORECAST TO BE IN A STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A 250 MB JET MAXIMUM OVER OUR AREA. THIS
WILL PUMMEL OUR AREA WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS
CAUSING DRY CONDITIONS. WIND SPEEDS HAVE GONE UP WITH THE LATEST RUN
OF THE NBM. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA AND GUSTS FROM 45-65+ MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE WESTERN PORTION. NBM PROBABILITY IS AROUND 60% FOR WIND
GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GROSSLY ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX (GFDI)
VALUES ADD TO THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY.
VALUES ARE FORECAST FROM 60-125+ FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR
CWA. ANY FIRES THAT START WILL HAVE RAPID GROWTH AND SPREAD OUT
OF CONTROL QUICKLY. WIDESPREAD RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE AREA IF CONDITIONS PAN OUT.
BLOWING DUST MAY BE A CONCERN TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR OUR COLORADO
COUNTIES. GFS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BETWEEN 8.5-10 C/KM, WHICH
SUPPORT DUST BEING LOFTED, BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7
C/KM. THIS WILL MAKE ANY LOFTED DUST LIKELY TO MIX OUT. BETWEEN 18Z
AND 0Z OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION, WHICH WOULD ADD TO BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WE REMAIN
UNDER A STRONG JET MAXIMUM. RH VALUES AND DEWPOINT ARE FORECAST IN
THE TEENS. THESE ARE LIKELY TO LOWER EVEN FURTHER IN RESPONSE TO
TUESDAY'S WINDS. WINDS GUSTS ARE FORECAST UP TO 35 MPH FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND GUSTS FROM 40-50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE WESTERN PORTION. GFDI VALUES RANGE FROM 60-120 FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL SUPPORTING RAPID FIRE GROWTH
AND SPREAD.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAXIMUM TRAVERSES
THROUGH OUR REGION. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE 10-20%
FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. CONDITIONS COOL SLIGHTLY
WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 50S. WINDS CALM DOWN SLIGHTLY IN
COMPARISON TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. KGLD COULD SEE CEILINGS LOWERING AND LIGHT RAIN START AS
EARLY AS 03Z, AND CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET WORSE FROM THERE.
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS LOOK POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE TOMORROW AT
KGLD DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. KMCK WILL BE NORTH OF MOST OF THE
RAIN CHANCES, BUT COULD STILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
9-15Z. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE A COLD RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID 30S OVERNIGHT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...KMK
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