671
FXUS63 KGLD 140922
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
222 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- EARLY MORNING SUB-FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING COULD LEAD TO BLACK
ICE FROM LINGERING WET ROADS FROM THE RAIN.
- 20% CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY IS THE MOST CONCERNING FOR FIRE SPREAD AS
WINDS MAY GUST IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING
DUST POTENTIAL AS WELL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS CONTINUES
TO LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LINGERING
WEAK MUCAPE MAY LEAD TO SOME VERY ISOLATED THUNDER OR A ROGUE
LIGHTENING STRIKE BUT WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM IT IS
DOUBTFUL BUT NOT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE. THE PEAK OF THE RAIN IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR FROM NOW THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY WHEN
700-500MB OMEGA IS AT ITS HIGHEST AROUND -12-20 MICROBARS.
OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND ONE QUARTER TO
ONE HALF INCH FAVORING LOCALES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
RAIN IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY HAVE
COME DOWN SOME AS CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
AS WELL.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING DO HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR FOG
DEVELOPING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. A CAVEAT TO THIS
IS THAT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY. HOWEVER THE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 6 KNOTS SO AM THINKING THAT
THIS SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME FOG TO FORM DUE TO THE CLEAR
SKIES AND A FRESHLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE RECENT RAIN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW SHALLOW SATURATION WHICH DOES LEAD ME TO
BELIEVE THAT FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING WHICH ALSO DOES
RAISE THE CONCERN FOR FREEZING FOG AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT ICING.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS A CLASSIC
SETUP FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. HAVE
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO
SIGNAL FOR WARMER THAN FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND WIND GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH. LOOKING AT THE 300K THETA E WE DO GET SOME SUBTLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WEST. THIS FACTOR IS KEEPING
CONFIDENCE IN 3 OR MORE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AROUND 50%; IF IT WAS NOT FOR THIS CONFIDENCE WOULD
BE CLOSER TO 70-80% IN NUMEROUS HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS
OCCURRING.
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S-70S IS FORECAST MONDAY AS
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OCCURS AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HUMIDITY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ALONG WITH SOME WIND GUSTS OF 15-25
MPH WITH THE STRONGEST OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER I DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ON THE DURATION OF ANY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES DO WARM WITH A SOUTHEAST
WIND IN PLACE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR KEEPING
HUMIDITY VALUES UP A LITTLE HIGHER. CONFIDENCE IN 3 OR MORE
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS CURRENTLY AROUND
20-30% AT THIS TIME WHICH IS THE REASON FOR OPTING OUT OF A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 147 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. WARM, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST IN THE MID-60S TO LOWER-70S MONDAY, WITH RH POTENTIALLY TO
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER-TEENS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO
AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. BRIEF, LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON, AS NBM GUIDANCE INDICATES
ABOUT A 60-70% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET THE CRITERIA.
DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSES THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE TO THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FORM ACROSS
WYOMING AND COLORADO, AND UNDERGO INTENSE DEEPENING DUE TO LEE
CYCLOGENESIS AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
AN 80-100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS
FOR EASTERN COLORADO MAY BE SUSTAINED AT 35-40 MPH, WITH GUSTS IN
THE 50-60 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A 50-60%
CHANCE EXISTS FOR HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET.
ADDITIONALLY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA MAY BE MET ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH RH VALUES FORECAST IN THE LOW
TO MID-TEENS, AND WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 25 MPH FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 90% CHANCE OR BETTER FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO,
AND ABOUT A 50-60% CHANCE WIND GUSTS IN NORTHWEST KANSAS ARE ABLE TO
MEET CRITERIA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING ISSUED
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO INCREASE, WITH EASTERN COLORADO
CURRENTLY SHOWING THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY
FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO
BE THE HIGHEST. PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE MAY ALLOW FOR A WIND
SHIFT THAT COULD INTRODUCE A WALL OF DUST AS A POTENTIAL HAZARD,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS SCENARIO. SOME GFS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIXED LAYER AROUND 3 KM HIGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD MIX OUT BLOWING DUST. EVEN SO, MORE
CONCENTRATED PLUMES OF DUST CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER-60S TO LOW-
70S.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON MAY PROVIDE
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER (LOW TO MID-60S), THOUGH WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS MAY
ALLOW RH VALUES TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID-TEENS ONCE AGAIN THROUGHOUT
THE TRI-STATE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS FOR COUNTIES
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER MAY CROSS 25 MPH, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN EASTERN COLORADO. HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND RED
FLAG WARNINGS MAY ONCE AGAIN NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. PLUMES OF DUST
CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.
A WINTER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY,
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW AND
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO ABOUT AN INCH ARE FORECAST FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA, THOUGH
EASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LOOK TO BE WHERE THE
MAJORITY OF SNOWFALL WOULD TAKE PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID-50S, BUT COULD BE LOWER DUE
TO SNOWFALL OR QUICKER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT DIVERGENT AFTER THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID-50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 958 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
RAIN SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. GLD
REMAINS THE FAVORED TERMINAL TO BE IMPACTED BY RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS WHERE FOR MCK IT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
CONDITIONAL DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DECLINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY FOR GLD
WITH AROUND A 60% CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS OCCURRING. MCK IS A
LITTLE TRICKIER DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM A 20-30%
CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 10 AND 13Z. SOME GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MCK AROUND 18Z OR
SO, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT QUITE THERE TO INTRODUCE INTO THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-002-013.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001>003-013-014-027-028-041.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ252-253.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079>081.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...KMK/DAVIS
AVIATION...TRIGG
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