003
FXUS63 KGLD 141752
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1052 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- EARLY MORNING SUB-FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING COULD LEAD TO BLACK
ICE FROM LINGERING WET ROADS FROM THE RAIN.
- 20% CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY IS THE MOST CONCERNING FOR FIRE SPREAD AS
WINDS MAY GUST IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING
DUST POTENTIAL AS WELL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS CONTINUES
TO LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LINGERING
WEAK MUCAPE MAY LEAD TO SOME VERY ISOLATED THUNDER OR A ROGUE
LIGHTENING STRIKE BUT WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM IT IS
DOUBTFUL BUT NOT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE. THE PEAK OF THE RAIN IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR FROM NOW THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY WHEN
700-500MB OMEGA IS AT ITS HIGHEST AROUND -12-20 MICROBARS.
OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND ONE QUARTER TO
ONE HALF INCH FAVORING LOCALES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
RAIN IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY HAVE
COME DOWN SOME AS CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
AS WELL.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING DO HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR FOG
DEVELOPING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. A CAVEAT TO THIS
IS THAT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY. HOWEVER THE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 6 KNOTS SO AM THINKING THAT
THIS SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME FOG TO FORM DUE TO THE CLEAR
SKIES AND A FRESHLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE RECENT RAIN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW SHALLOW SATURATION WHICH DOES LEAD ME TO
BELIEVE THAT FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING WHICH ALSO DOES
RAISE THE CONCERN FOR FREEZING FOG AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT ICING.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS A CLASSIC
SETUP FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. HAVE
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO
SIGNAL FOR WARMER THAN FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND WIND GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH. LOOKING AT THE 300K THETA E WE DO GET SOME SUBTLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WEST. THIS FACTOR IS KEEPING
CONFIDENCE IN 3 OR MORE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AROUND 50%; IF IT WAS NOT FOR THIS CONFIDENCE WOULD
BE CLOSER TO 70-80% IN NUMEROUS HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS
OCCURRING.
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S-70S IS FORECAST MONDAY AS
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OCCURS AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HUMIDITY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ALONG WITH SOME WIND GUSTS OF 15-25
MPH WITH THE STRONGEST OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER I DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ON THE DURATION OF ANY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES DO WARM WITH A SOUTHEAST
WIND IN PLACE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR KEEPING
HUMIDITY VALUES UP A LITTLE HIGHER. CONFIDENCE IN 3 OR MORE
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS CURRENTLY AROUND
20-30% AT THIS TIME WHICH IS THE REASON FOR OPTING OUT OF A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER. A 250 MB
JET MAXIMUM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY MORNING
PLACING US IN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL PUMMEL OUR AREA
WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL CAUSE DRY
CONDITIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES QUICKLY DROP IN THE LOWER
TEENS TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA (CWA).
WINDS REMAIN CONSISTENT FROM THE LAST RUN OF THE NBM, WHICH OVERALL
INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE HIGH WINDS AND
HIGH FIRE DANGER TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE EASTERN PORTION AND GUSTS FROM 45-65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION, FAVORING THE COLORADO COUNTIES. THE NBM IS SHOWING
PROBABILITIES OF >70% FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 55 MPH FOR OUR COLORADO
COUNTIES. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX (GFDI) VALUES REFLECT
INCREASING CONCERNS FOR FIRE DANGER. GFDI VALUES RANGE FROM 60-125+
INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST. KIT CARSON, YUMA, AND CHEYENNE (CO)
ARE ON THE HIGHER END WITH GFDI VALUES OVER 100. ANY FIRES THAT
START WILL HAVE EXPLOSIVE GROWTH AND RAPID SPREAD. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE CWA BEGINNING AROUND 18Z TUESDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT AND NEGATIVELY AFFECT ANY FIRE
SUPPRESSION EFFORTS. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, SO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
BLOWING DUST MAY BE A CONCERN TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR OUR COLORADO
COUNTIES. GFS 0-2 KM AGL LAPSE RATES ARE BETWEEN 8.5-10 C/KM, WHICH
SUPPORT DUST BEING LOFTED. GFS 2-2.5 KM LAPSE RATES RANGE FROM 3-7
C/KM. ANY VALUES BELOW 6.5 C/KM SUGGEST LOFTED DUST WILL NOT MIX UP
HIGHER IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS, COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND WIND SHIFT TUESDAY AFTER 18Z, IS CONCERNING FOR A WALL OF DUST
TO FORM. THE TIMING OF WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH COULD
GREATLY CHANGE IMPACTS. CURRENTLY, THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
EXIT THE CWA BY 0Z.
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS/LOW TEENS AND REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY.
THIS ADDS TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO CONDITIONS DRYING AND LACK
OF OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WEDNESDAY, WE REMAIN UNDER A STRONG JET
MAXIMUM. RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE TEENS FOR THE
AFTERNOON, BUT MAY FURTHER LOWER DEPENDING ON RESPONSE TO TUESDAY'S
WIND AND FIRE EVENT. WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST UP TO 35 MPH FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND GUSTS FROM 40-50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE WESTERN PORTION. GFDI VALUES HAVE DECREASED FROM THE LAST RUN OF
THE NBM AND RANGE FROM 30-70 FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES. THE TIMING
OF HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ARE A BIT EARLIER THAN THE LOWER RH VALUES DUE
TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FIRE DANGER IS STILL A CONCERN, BUT
LOWER GFDI VALUES REFLECT CONDITIONS HAVE SLIGHTLY IMPROVED.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAXIMUM
PASSES OVER OUR REGION AS WELL AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION (POPS) RANGE FROM 10-20% FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. IF PRECIPITATION DOES FALL, IT WILL LIKELY BE A WINTRY MIX
DUE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE HIGH
TEENS/LOW 20S. WINDS CALM DOWN SLIGHTLY IN COMPARISON TO EARLIER IN
THE WEEK WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES.
FRIDAY, WE ARE FORECAST TO BE IN A MILD ZONAL PATTERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A WEAK TROUGH WEST OF OUR REGION, BUT VARY ON INTENSITY AND
SPEED OF IT TRAVERSING THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1026 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
EXPECT SKIES TO CONTINUE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AS SYSTEM
DEPARTS AREA, LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD BEFORE
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT MCK WILL
BE OVERALL LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE. ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT ALONG
WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE IN AREA THAT RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAIN
TODAY. THIS AREA MAY GET CLOSE TO MCK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL
LOW THAT IT WILL HAVE A PERSISTENT IMPACT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-002-013.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001>003-013-014-027-028-041.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ252-253.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079>081.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...JRM
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