260
FXUS63 KGLD 141926
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1226 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- EARLY MORNING SUB-FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING COULD LEAD TO BLACK
ICE FROM LINGERING WET ROADS FROM THE RAIN.
- 20% CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY IS THE MOST CONCERNING FOR FIRE SPREAD AS
WINDS MAY GUST IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING
DUST POTENTIAL AS WELL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS CONTINUES
TO LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LINGERING
WEAK MUCAPE MAY LEAD TO SOME VERY ISOLATED THUNDER OR A ROGUE
LIGHTENING STRIKE BUT WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM IT IS
DOUBTFUL BUT NOT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE. THE PEAK OF THE RAIN IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR FROM NOW THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY WHEN
700-500MB OMEGA IS AT ITS HIGHEST AROUND -12-20 MICROBARS.
OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND ONE QUARTER TO
ONE HALF INCH FAVORING LOCALES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
RAIN IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY HAVE
COME DOWN SOME AS CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
AS WELL.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING DO HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR FOG
DEVELOPING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. A CAVEAT TO THIS
IS THAT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY. HOWEVER THE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 6 KNOTS SO AM THINKING THAT
THIS SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME FOG TO FORM DUE TO THE CLEAR
SKIES AND A FRESHLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE RECENT RAIN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW SHALLOW SATURATION WHICH DOES LEAD ME TO
BELIEVE THAT FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING WHICH ALSO DOES
RAISE THE CONCERN FOR FREEZING FOG AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT ICING.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS A CLASSIC
SETUP FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. HAVE
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO
SIGNAL FOR WARMER THAN FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND WIND GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH. LOOKING AT THE 300K THETA E WE DO GET SOME SUBTLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WEST. THIS FACTOR IS KEEPING
CONFIDENCE IN 3 OR MORE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AROUND 50%; IF IT WAS NOT FOR THIS CONFIDENCE WOULD
BE CLOSER TO 70-80% IN NUMEROUS HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS
OCCURRING.
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S-70S IS FORECAST MONDAY AS
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OCCURS AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HUMIDITY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ALONG WITH SOME WIND GUSTS OF 15-25
MPH WITH THE STRONGEST OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER I DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ON THE DURATION OF ANY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES DO WARM WITH A SOUTHEAST
WIND IN PLACE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR KEEPING
HUMIDITY VALUES UP A LITTLE HIGHER. CONFIDENCE IN 3 OR MORE
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS CURRENTLY AROUND
20-30% AT THIS TIME WHICH IS THE REASON FOR OPTING OUT OF A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
COULD ALLOW A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE LONG TERM. TUESDAY MORNING, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY A STRONG AND INTENSIFYING
80-100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET IN ITS LEFT EXIT REGION. POWERFUL UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS A BYPRODUCT OF THIS PATTERN IN ADDITION TO LEE
CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY TO ALLOW INTENSE DEEPENING OF A SURFACE
CYCLONE ALONG THE MONTANA-WYOMING BORDER. AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WOULD BE ALLOWED TO OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST REGION. CRITICALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER, HIGH WIND, AND
BLOWING DUST ARE ALL POSSIBLE HAZARDS TO EXPERIENCE FROM THIS
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA, AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECASTED TO
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID-TEENS, AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO MAY EXPERIENCE
SUSTAINED WINDS 45-50 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. IF CONFIDENCE IN
HIGH WINDS AND LOW RH CAN CONTINUE TO INCREASE, A RED FLAG WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED, WITH EMPHASIS ON EASTERN COLORADO WHERE A HIGH WIND
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED, AND EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH COULD BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH WINDS MAY ALSO IMPLICATE BLOWING DUST AS A CONCERN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE
SEVERITY. A WIND SHIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A MORE SEVERE DUST AND FIRE EVENT, ESPECIALLY IF
THE FRONT IS ALLOWED TO PASS EARLIER IN THE DAY. EVEN SO, GFS AND
ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER TO FORM BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON (AROUND 3 KM THICK),
WHICH COULD DISPERSE DUST THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE AND LOWER THE
VISIBILITY THREAT FROM BLOWING DUST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START THE DAY, WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH IN EASTERN
COLORADO. RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID-TEENS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
CWA, WHICH COULD ONCE AGAIN IMPLICATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AS A
CONCERN. THE PRIMARY REGION OF FOCUS IS CURRENTLY FOR COUNTIES ALONG
THE KS-CO BORDER, WHERE NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WIND GUSTS HAVE
ABOUT A 50-60% CHANCE TO MEET CRITERIA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. IN
ADDITION, AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ESE THROUGH THE DAY, THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TO OCCUR.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHIFT WOULD TAKE PLACE FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SOMETIME
BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS UNCERTAIN. IF THIS WIND SHIFT DOES OCCUR,
FIRE SPREAD FOR EXISTING FIRES COULD SUDDENLY CHANGE DIRECTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-50S TO MID-60S ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM COMES
THROUGH. NBM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, BUT MAY
EXTEND INTO EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOW-20S TO LOW-
30S, AND HIGHS IN THE MID-40S TO LOW-50S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON RESPECTIVELY, THOUGH COULD BE
LOWER DUE TO SNOWFALL AND/OR SOONER COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES AFTER THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH
TROUGHING OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS FAVORED. AS
SUCH, HIGHS IN THE MID-40S TO LOW-50S, AND LOWS IN THE UPPER-TEENS
TO LOW-20S ARE FORECAST. ISOLATED SNOW DUSTINGS CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR RIDGING EXISTS GOING
INTO SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY ALLOW
WARMING TO TAKE PLACE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1026 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
EXPECT SKIES TO CONTINUE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AS SYSTEM
DEPARTS AREA, LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD BEFORE
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT MCK WILL
BE OVERALL LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE. ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT ALONG
WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE IN AREA THAT RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAIN
TODAY. THIS AREA MAY GET CLOSE TO MCK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL
LOW THAT IT WILL HAVE A PERSISTENT IMPACT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ001.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001>003-013-014-027-028-041.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ002-013.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ252-253.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM
CST/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...JRM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page