492
FXUS63 KGLD 142327
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
427 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, MAINLY EAST OF A
MCCOOK TO TRIBUNE LINE. SOME SLICK SPOTS DUE TO FREEZING FOG
POSSIBLE.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY NORTH
OF A BURLINGTON TO MCCOOK LINE.
- POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. VERY
DRY CONDITIONS AND WINDS GUSTING OVER 60 MPH WILL CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.
- BLOWING DUST MAY REDUCE AIR QUALITY IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
ADJACENT AREAS ON TUESDAY. LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO DUST PLUMES
MAY ALSO HINDER TRAVEL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN TEXAS WITH NORTHERN TROUGH RESPONSIBLE
FOR OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY SHEARING OUT/ABSORBING INTO
OVERALL FLOW THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, LOW CENTER WAS NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS BORDER WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVERSPREADING THE
LOCAL AREA.
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT, FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY, AND POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DRYING OF
SOILS THROUGH MONDAY.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SKIES CLEAR AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION, MAY HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TO ALLOW
RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP AS COOLING CONDITIONS FAIRLY OPTIMAL.
DECENT SIGNAL IN SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE THAT AREA OF FOG WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH AM CONCERNED THAT MOISTURE PROFILES JUST OFF THE
SURFACE VERY DRY, INDICATING VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FOG IS LOWERED DUE TO THIS SCENARIO AND THINK
DENSEST FOG MAY BE LIMITED TO VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW SPOTS WHERE
COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE. AT THIS TIME, DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS TONIGHT AS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF CWA WILL BE SOMEWHAT PRECONDITIONED FOR FOG
AS CLOUDS TODAY HAVE INHIBITED WARMING.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE MORNING
HOURS AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS, BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
NUMBER 1 CONCERN FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH AS TROUGH INTENSIFIES. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN HUMIDITIES AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WORK TO
ADVECT MOISTURE BACK INTO REGION, REPLACING A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS.
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS ADVECTION HOWEVER, WILL LIKELY SEE AREA OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. GFDI
VALUES ARE A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE LOWERING CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT, BUT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A
RED FLAG WARNING.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD, LEADING TO SOMEWHAT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA DRIVING
HUMIDITIES DOWN TO 15-20%. WINDS IN GENERAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE DAY, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
PICKING UP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO APPROACHING SYSTEM. TIMING
OF WINDS WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE FOR PROLONGED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS
TIME. BIGGEST POTENTIAL CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF MOUNTAIN
INDUCED CIRRUS AS FLOW ALOFT PERPENDICULAR TO MOUNTAINS INCREASES.
THIS COULD BECOME THICK ENOUGH TO LIMIT HEATING/INCREASE HUMIDITIES.
ADDITIONALLY LESS SUNSHINE MAY INHIBIT SOME OF THE DRYING OF SOILS
OVER RECENT PRECIPITATION AREAS. RIGHT NOW, BIGGEST CONCERN FOR
BLOWING DUST ON TUESDAY GENERALLY WEST OF TODAY'S PRECIPITATION AREA
BUT MORE CLOUDS/LESS PRECONDITIONING ON SUNDAY MAY INHIBIT EASTWARD
EXTENT OF BLOWING DUST ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
COULD ALLOW A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE LONG TERM. TUESDAY MORNING, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY A STRONG AND INTENSIFYING
80-100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET IN ITS LEFT EXIT REGION. POWERFUL UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS A BYPRODUCT OF THIS PATTERN IN ADDITION TO LEE
CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY TO ALLOW INTENSE DEEPENING OF A SURFACE
CYCLONE ALONG THE MONTANA-WYOMING BORDER. AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WOULD BE ALLOWED TO OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST REGION. CRITICALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER, HIGH WIND, AND
BLOWING DUST ARE ALL POSSIBLE HAZARDS TO EXPERIENCE FROM THIS
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA, AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECASTED TO
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID-TEENS, AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO MAY EXPERIENCE
SUSTAINED WINDS 45-50 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. IF CONFIDENCE IN
HIGH WINDS AND LOW RH CAN CONTINUE TO INCREASE, A RED FLAG WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED, WITH EMPHASIS ON EASTERN COLORADO WHERE A HIGH WIND
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED, AND EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH COULD BE
EXPERIENCED. HIGH WINDS MAY ALSO IMPLICATE BLOWING DUST AS A CONCERN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE
SEVERITY. A WIND SHIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A MORE SEVERE DUST AND FIRE EVENT, ESPECIALLY IF
THE FRONT IS ALLOWED TO PASS EARLIER IN THE DAY. EVEN SO, GFS AND
ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER TO FORM BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON (AROUND 3 KM THICK),
WHICH COULD DISPERSE DUST THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE AND LOWER THE
VISIBILITY THREAT FROM BLOWING DUST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START THE DAY, WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH IN EASTERN
COLORADO. RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID-TEENS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
CWA, WHICH COULD ONCE AGAIN IMPLICATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AS A
CONCERN. THE PRIMARY REGION OF FOCUS IS CURRENTLY FOR COUNTIES ALONG
THE KS-CO BORDER, WHERE NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WIND GUSTS HAVE
ABOUT A 50-60% CHANCE TO MEET CRITERIA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. IN
ADDITION, AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ESE THROUGH THE DAY, THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TO OCCUR.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHIFT WOULD TAKE PLACE FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SOMETIME
BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS UNCERTAIN. IF THIS WIND SHIFT DOES OCCUR,
FIRE SPREAD FOR EXISTING FIRES COULD SUDDENLY CHANGE DIRECTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-50S TO MID-60S ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM COMES
THROUGH. NBM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, BUT MAY
EXTEND INTO EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOW-20S TO LOW-
30S, AND HIGHS IN THE MID-40S TO LOW-50S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON RESPECTIVELY, THOUGH COULD BE
LOWER DUE TO SNOWFALL AND/OR SOONER COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES AFTER THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH
TROUGHING OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS FAVORED. AS
SUCH, HIGHS IN THE MID-40S TO LOW-50S, AND LOWS IN THE UPPER-TEENS
TO LOW-20S ARE FORECAST. ISOLATED SNOW DUSTINGS CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A CHANCE FOR RIDGING EXISTS GOING
INTO SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY ALLOW
WARMING TO TAKE PLACE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 423 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TAFS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
SHOW A BOUNDARY FROM JUST EAST OF KGLD ARCING NORTH TO TRENTON,
NE. EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY DEW POINTS ARE ATLEAST 10 DEGREES
HIGHER. GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUDS ARE
LINGERING, FOG IS FORECAST TO FORM EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. KGLD
SHOULD BE WEST OF ANY FOG THAT FORMS TONIGHT. HOWEVER NEW DATA
IS SHOWING KMCK IS EITHER JUST WEST OR JUST EAST OF WHERE THE
FOG WILL BE. AS SUCH HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS GIVEN
THE LATEST DATA. IF FOG DOES FORM, IT MAY BE IN THE IFR
CATEGORY, BUT DON'T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR THAT YET.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ001.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001>003-013-014-027-028-041.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ002-013.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ252-253.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM
CST/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...JTL
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