983
FXUS63 KGLD 150853
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
153 AM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 9AM CT FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. SOME SLICK SPOTS DUE TO FREEZING FOG
POSSIBLE.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY NORTH
OF A BURLINGTON TO MCCOOK LINE.
- POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. VERY
DRY CONDITIONS AND WINDS GUSTING OVER 60 MPH WILL CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.
- BLOWING DUST MAY REDUCE AIR QUALITY IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
ADJACENT AREAS ON TUESDAY. LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO DUST PLUMES
MAY ALSO HINDER TRAVEL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN TEXAS WITH NORTHERN TROUGH RESPONSIBLE
FOR OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY SHEARING OUT/ABSORBING INTO
OVERALL FLOW THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, LOW CENTER WAS NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS BORDER WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVERSPREADING THE
LOCAL AREA.
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT, FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY, AND POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DRYING OF
SOILS THROUGH MONDAY.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SKIES CLEAR AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION, MAY HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TO ALLOW
RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP AS COOLING CONDITIONS FAIRLY OPTIMAL.
DECENT SIGNAL IN SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE THAT AREA OF FOG WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH AM CONCERNED THAT MOISTURE PROFILES JUST OFF THE
SURFACE VERY DRY, INDICATING VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FOG IS LOWERED DUE TO THIS SCENARIO AND THINK
DENSEST FOG MAY BE LIMITED TO VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW SPOTS WHERE
COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE. AT THIS TIME, DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS TONIGHT AS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF CWA WILL BE SOMEWHAT PRECONDITIONED FOR FOG
AS CLOUDS TODAY HAVE INHIBITED WARMING.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE MORNING
HOURS AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS, BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
NUMBER 1 CONCERN FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH AS TROUGH INTENSIFIES. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN HUMIDITIES AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WORK TO
ADVECT MOISTURE BACK INTO REGION, REPLACING A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS.
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS ADVECTION HOWEVER, WILL LIKELY SEE AREA OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. GFDI
VALUES ARE A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE LOWERING CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT, BUT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A
RED FLAG WARNING.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD, LEADING TO SOMEWHAT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA DRIVING
HUMIDITIES DOWN TO 15-20%. WINDS IN GENERAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE DAY, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
PICKING UP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO APPROACHING SYSTEM. TIMING
OF WINDS WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE FOR PROLONGED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS
TIME. BIGGEST POTENTIAL CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF MOUNTAIN
INDUCED CIRRUS AS FLOW ALOFT PERPENDICULAR TO MOUNTAINS INCREASES.
THIS COULD BECOME THICK ENOUGH TO LIMIT HEATING/INCREASE HUMIDITIES.
ADDITIONALLY LESS SUNSHINE MAY INHIBIT SOME OF THE DRYING OF SOILS
OVER RECENT PRECIPITATION AREAS. RIGHT NOW, BIGGEST CONCERN FOR
BLOWING DUST ON TUESDAY GENERALLY WEST OF TODAY'S PRECIPITATION AREA
BUT MORE CLOUDS/LESS PRECONDITIONING ON SUNDAY MAY INHIBIT EASTWARD
EXTENT OF BLOWING DUST ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 152 AM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
WEDNESDAY, THE SECOND PUNCH IN OUR 1-2 PUNCH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA. IN THE MORNING HOURS, WE GET A WEAK 850 MB RIDGE TO MOVE OVER
THE CWA, WHICH WILL KICK-START OUR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AROUND 18-0Z,
AN 850 MB LOW WILL BE COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING
EAST. ONCE THIS LOW PASSES THROUGH THE CWA, WE LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE 250 MB JET, IN A MORE UNSETTLED AND VERY
UNCERTAIN PATTERN.
THESE FEATURES CAUSING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY,
SHOULD DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL DRIVE
RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE LOW TEENS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE THE
BIG QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH THE CURRENT PATH OF THE 850 MB LOW
(ALONG/SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER), AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM YUMA, CO TO LEOTI, KS ARE FORECAST TO GUST
OVER 25 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH AREAS NEAR FLAGLER, CO GUSTING UP
AROUND 40 KTS. AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THAT LINE SHOULD SEE GUSTS
AROUND 15-20 KTS. IT'S AREAS SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT WE'RE
WORRIED ABOUT RETURNING PROLONGED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CONFIDENCE IN NEEDING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY SITS AROUND 50%.
IF THE TIMING OF THE LOW SPEEDS UP 6-12 HOURS, IT WILL BE ABLE TO
FORM A MODERATELY STRONG LLJ OF ABOUT 30-40 KTS OVER MORE OF THE
CWA, GENERALLY LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 36. THIS WOULD
ALLOW SIMILARLY STRONG GUSTS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE AND SPREAD THE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING IS ABOUT 20-25%.
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL INTO THE 20S, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW RH VALUES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE INTO THE 50S-60S.
THE NBM /NDFD SHOW 10-20 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF FORCING FROM 500 MB VORTICITY,
BUT THERE IS A VERY DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB, SEVERELY
DEGRADING THE POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION OVER NIGHT. IF ANYTHING
FALLS, IT WOULD LIKELY BE SOME FLURRIES.
WITH THE 250 MB JET SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE CWA TO SOUTH OF
THE CWA, THERE IS EXTREME UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES, RH, POPS,
AND P-TYPE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TO HIGHLIGHT THE
UNCERTAINTY, NBM 25-75 PERCENTILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SPREADS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY RANGE FROM 10-15+ DEGREES. THIS SPREAD COULD
BE THE DIFFERENCE FROM RH VALUES BEING IN THE MID TEENS, LEADING TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, OR RH VALUES BEING HIGH ENOUGH THAT
WOULD COULD SEE A FEW ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY,
IF WE WERE TO GET ANY PRECIPITATION, THIS SPREAD COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE IN SNOW OR RAIN. THIS SPREAD ALSO EXPLAINS WHY THE NDFD
HAS RH VALUES AROUND 20% WITH 20-30 POPS, AND SNOW WITH NEAR 50
DEGREE TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS ABOUT 70% CONFIDENCE THAT NO HIGH-END HAZARDS OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME LOW-END
HAZARDS, SUCH AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OR SLICK ROADS FROM WINTRY
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
A BANK OF DENSE FOG IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST. NOT
ANTICIPATING AT THIS TIME FOG TO IMPACT THE GLD TERMINAL BUT MAY
BE CLOSE THROUGH 14Z. FOR MCK A 10-20% CHANCE FOR VISIBILITIES
TO FALL BELOW 6SM CURRENTLY. ANY FOG POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO
END AROUND 14-15Z. BE AWARE FOR SOME LIGHT ICING POTENTIAL
SHOULD FOG IMPACT A TERMINAL AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
FALL AROUND FREEZING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY AROUND 17-18Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE FORECAST.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5
PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-002-013.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ003-004-
014>016-028-029-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COZ252-253.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ090>092.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5
PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079>081.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...TRIGG
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