703
FXUS63 KGLD 152013
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
113 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALONG
WITH YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO AND CHEYENNE,
RAWLINS AND SHERMAN IN NORTHWEST KANSAS.
- POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. VERY
DRY CONDITIONS AND WINDS GUSTING OVER 60 MPH WILL CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.
- BLOWING DUST WILL LIKELY REDUCE AIR QUALITY IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS ON TUESDAY. LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO
DUST PLUMES MAY ALSO HINDER TRAVEL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 106 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD H5 RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH CLOSED LOW SYSTEM JUST OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
EASTERN KANSAS, WITH LEE TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
INITIAL FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT, MARGINAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ON
TUESDAY.
TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH SLIGHTLY AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVERHEAD, EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER FOG BANK, FURTHER NORTH THAN LAST NIGHT ALONG
WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE AND PERIPHERY OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WHILE
MOISTURE DEPTH IS QUESTIONABLE, IT DID NOT SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR LAST NIGHT AND THINK AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE AREA WILL
SEE OVERNIGHT FOG, ALBEIT A SMALLER AREA THAN YESTERDAY.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
AS ATMOSPHERE WARMS UNDER INFLUENCE OF SLIGHTLY AMPLIFYING
RIDGE, LIKELY DRIVING AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES INTO THE 15 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN. WHILE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO, WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON REDUCING
NEED FOR RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME. WHILE A CASE CAN BE MADE
FOR WARNING, MARGINAL NATURE AND WITH MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT
THREAT IN STORE ON TUESDAY THINK IT IS APPROPRIATE TO HOLD OFF
ON THIS FOR NOW.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WELL ADVERTISED PERIOD OF WARM, DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY. WARM FRONT WILL
SURGE TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT MONDAY, WITH WARM AND MUCH DRIER AIR
EXPECTED BEHIND IT. H5 TROUGH MOVING OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL AID
IN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NORTHERN PLAINS, INCREASING
PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP,STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING WITH A
DEEPLY MIXED, UNIDIRECTIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER ANTICIPATED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 NEAR KS/CO
BORDER. PROBABILISTIC DATA STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW ON
POTENTIAL FOR 60 MPH WINDS, OPERATIONAL DATA STILL SUPPORTING
50-55 KTS IN THE MIXED LAYER. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS OF WINDS BEING
UNDERFORECAST, THINK LEANING ON HIGHER END SOLUTIONS WARRANTED
AT THIS POINT. CURRENT HIGH WIND WATCH CAPTURES AREA OF HIGHEST
THREAT PRETTY WELL AND PLAN ON LEAVING AS IS FOR THE TIME BEING.
CONSIDERED UPGRADING TO WARNING, BUT WITH AFFORMENTIONED
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE PROBABLISTIC DATA IT DOES NOT APPEAR
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS, AREA LOOKS PRIME FOR
PERIOD OF EXPLOSIVE FIRE DANGER GIVEN WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES BELOW
15%, SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 40 MPH AND ERC VALUES SUGGESTING AN
ABOVE NORMAL FUEL LOAD. WHILE PORTIONS OF THE AREA DID RECEIVE
BENEFICIAL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY MORNING, AMPLE SUNSHINE AND AMBIENT
DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FUELS TO DRY OUT COMPLETELY BY TUESDAY.
OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (75%) THAT WILDFIRE THREAT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT ON TUESDAY.
BLOWING DUST AND IT'S ASSOCIATED HAZARDS WILL BE BE THE OTHER
CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD, WITH SIMILAR CONCERNS AS THE FIRE DANGER
THREAT. THINK THER IS AMPLE TIME AND APPROPRIATE CONDITIONS (PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITIES) FOR TOP LAYERS OF SOIL TO DRY OUT IN
WESTERN CWA AND BE PRONE TO BEING LOFTED BY STRONG WINDS TUESDAY.
GIVEN BROAD NATURE OF THE WINDS AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING
3KM DEEP, THINK THIS WILL BE A PLUME TYPE DUST EVENT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE THE WORST IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE DUST SOURCE AND
SHOULD GREATLY IMPROVE AS DUST DISPERSES THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER.
WHILE THE BROWNOUT THREAT WILL BE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
SOURCE REGIONS, AIR QUALITY WILL LIKELY BE POOR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. AM PARTICUARLY WORRIED ABOUT EASTERN PORTIONS OF YUMA COUNTY
DOWNWIND OF HEARSTRONG FIRE SCAR. WITH NO VEGATATION COVERAGE, SANDY
SOIL WILL LIKELY BLOW DOWN WIND EASILY. WHILE IT WILL DEPEND ON
EXACT WIND DIRECTION, WRAY AND VERNON AREAS MAY HAVE ESPECIALLY BAD
AIR QUALITY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 152 AM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
WEDNESDAY, THE SECOND PUNCH IN OUR 1-2 PUNCH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA. IN THE MORNING HOURS, WE GET A WEAK 850 MB RIDGE TO MOVE OVER
THE CWA, WHICH WILL KICK-START OUR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AROUND 18-0Z,
AN 850 MB LOW WILL BE COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING
EAST. ONCE THIS LOW PASSES THROUGH THE CWA, WE LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE 250 MB JET, IN A MORE UNSETTLED AND VERY
UNCERTAIN PATTERN.
THESE FEATURES CAUSING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY,
SHOULD DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL DRIVE
RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE LOW TEENS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE THE
BIG QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH THE CURRENT PATH OF THE 850 MB LOW
(ALONG/SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER), AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM YUMA, CO TO LEOTI, KS ARE FORECAST TO GUST
OVER 25 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH AREAS NEAR FLAGLER, CO GUSTING UP
AROUND 40 KTS. AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THAT LINE SHOULD SEE GUSTS
AROUND 15-20 KTS. IT'S AREAS SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT WE'RE
WORRIED ABOUT RETURNING PROLONGED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CONFIDENCE IN NEEDING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY SITS AROUND 50%.
IF THE TIMING OF THE LOW SPEEDS UP 6-12 HOURS, IT WILL BE ABLE TO
FORM A MODERATELY STRONG LLJ OF ABOUT 30-40 KTS OVER MORE OF THE
CWA, GENERALLY LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 36. THIS WOULD
ALLOW SIMILARLY STRONG GUSTS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE AND SPREAD THE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING IS ABOUT 20-25%.
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL INTO THE 20S, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW RH VALUES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE INTO THE 50S-60S.
THE NBM /NDFD SHOW 10-20 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF FORCING FROM 500 MB VORTICITY,
BUT THERE IS A VERY DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB, SEVERELY
DEGRADING THE POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION OVER NIGHT. IF ANYTHING
FALLS, IT WOULD LIKELY BE SOME FLURRIES.
WITH THE 250 MB JET SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE CWA TO SOUTH OF
THE CWA, THERE IS EXTREME UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES, RH, POPS,
AND P-TYPE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TO HIGHLIGHT THE
UNCERTAINTY, NBM 25-75 PERCENTILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SPREADS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY RANGE FROM 10-15+ DEGREES. THIS SPREAD COULD
BE THE DIFFERENCE FROM RH VALUES BEING IN THE MID TEENS, LEADING TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, OR RH VALUES BEING HIGH ENOUGH THAT
WOULD COULD SEE A FEW ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY,
IF WE WERE TO GET ANY PRECIPITATION, THIS SPREAD COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE IN SNOW OR RAIN. THIS SPREAD ALSO EXPLAINS WHY THE NDFD
HAS RH VALUES AROUND 20% WITH 20-30 POPS, AND SNOW WITH NEAR 50
DEGREE TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS ABOUT 70% CONFIDENCE THAT NO HIGH-END HAZARDS OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME LOW-END
HAZARDS, SUCH AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OR SLICK ROADS FROM WINTRY
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AT BOTH TERMINAL
LOCATIONS THROUGH 06Z. SMALL WINDOW OF LLWS POSSIBLE AT BASE OF
INVERSION TONIGHT, MCK WILL LIKELY HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
AS WINDS WILL DECOUPLE FOR A FEW HOURS, MAXIMIZING THE SHEAR.
ADDITIONALLY ANOTHER, ALBEIT SMALLER, FOG DECK IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG PERIPHERY OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MCK WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY THIS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING IN LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG JUST YET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 206 AM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
UPDATED AT 106 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHRE CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS WARNING
AREA TODAY, WITH HUMIDITIES STRUGGLING TO FALL TO UNDER 20% DO
TO WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION. WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONGER THAN
GUIDANCE SUGGEST, WITH AN ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH THINK
KEEPING WARNING GOING WARRANTED DESPITE HUMIDITY CONCERNS.
CONCERNS MENTIONED IN FOLLOWING PARAGRAPH FROM LAST NIGHT REMAIN
ON TRACK.
HUMIDITY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN AROUND 45% AS TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO FALL OUT OF THE 40S. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A
CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER DAY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS THERE THAT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE AREA TUESDAY BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH
END AND DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER DAY. 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE
ACCORDING TO THE KANSAS MESONET IS FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND
10% WHICH IS REPRESENTATIVE OF VERY DRY CONDITIONS AS WARM AND
BREEZY TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO MITIGATE WIND
GUSTS OF 45-65 MPH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ALONG WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25-40 MPH. THE STRONG SIGNAL FOR THE HIGH SUSTAINED
WINDS, WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY ALSO RESULTS IN
NUMEROUS HOURS OF EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA. THE CONCERNING PART OF THE FORECAST LIES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS,
NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WIND SHIFTS THROUGH
THE DAY. THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GEFS-MEAN
SPREAD IS HINTING AT A DELAYED WIND SHIFT WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
WARMER THAN FORECAST TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
HUMIDITY EVEN MORE. ANOTHER WIND SHIFT IS FORECAST DURING THE
EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 55 MPH CONTINUING AS WELL. BLOWING DUST IS ALSO A CONCERN
WHICH COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL STATIC DRIVEN FIRE STARTS. LIMITED
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS AGAIN FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS LOWER DEW POINTS MOVE IN WITH RH FORECAST NOT TO GET ABOVE
50%. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS AGAIN FORECAST TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AS WELL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001-002-013.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ252-253.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ090>092.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ079>081.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JRM
FIRE WEATHER...JRM/TRIGG
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