162
FXUS63 KGLD 152339
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
439 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALONG
WITH YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO AND CHEYENNE,
RAWLINS AND SHERMAN IN NORTHWEST KANSAS.
- POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. VERY
DRY CONDITIONS AND WINDS GUSTING OVER 60 MPH WILL CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.
- BLOWING DUST WILL LIKELY REDUCE AIR QUALITY IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS ON TUESDAY. LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO
DUST PLUMES MAY ALSO HINDER TRAVEL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 106 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD H5 RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH CLOSED LOW SYSTEM JUST OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
EASTERN KANSAS, WITH LEE TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
INITIAL FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT, MARGINAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ON
TUESDAY.
TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH SLIGHTLY AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVERHEAD, EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER FOG BANK, FURTHER NORTH THAN LAST NIGHT ALONG
WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE AND PERIPHERY OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WHILE
MOISTURE DEPTH IS QUESTIONABLE, IT DID NOT SEEM TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR LAST NIGHT AND THINK AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE AREA WILL
SEE OVERNIGHT FOG, ALBEIT A SMALLER AREA THAN YESTERDAY.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
AS ATMOSPHERE WARMS UNDER INFLUENCE OF SLIGHTLY AMPLIFYING
RIDGE, LIKELY DRIVING AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES INTO THE 15 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE ONCE AGAIN. WHILE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO, WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON REDUCING
NEED FOR RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME. WHILE A CASE CAN BE MADE
FOR WARNING, MARGINAL NATURE AND WITH MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT
THREAT IN STORE ON TUESDAY THINK IT IS APPROPRIATE TO HOLD OFF
ON THIS FOR NOW.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...WELL ADVERTISED PERIOD OF WARM, DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY. WARM FRONT WILL
SURGE TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT MONDAY, WITH WARM AND MUCH DRIER AIR
EXPECTED BEHIND IT. H5 TROUGH MOVING OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL AID
IN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NORTHERN PLAINS, INCREASING
PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP,STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING WITH A
DEEPLY MIXED, UNIDIRECTIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER ANTICIPATED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 NEAR KS/CO
BORDER. PROBABILISTIC DATA STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW ON
POTENTIAL FOR 60 MPH WINDS, OPERATIONAL DATA STILL SUPPORTING
50-55 KTS IN THE MIXED LAYER. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS OF WINDS BEING
UNDERFORECAST, THINK LEANING ON HIGHER END SOLUTIONS WARRANTED
AT THIS POINT. CURRENT HIGH WIND WATCH CAPTURES AREA OF HIGHEST
THREAT PRETTY WELL AND PLAN ON LEAVING AS IS FOR THE TIME BEING.
CONSIDERED UPGRADING TO WARNING, BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE PROBABILISTIC DATA IT DOES NOT APPEAR
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS, AREA LOOKS PRIME FOR
PERIOD OF EXPLOSIVE FIRE DANGER GIVEN WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES BELOW
15%, SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 40 MPH AND ERC VALUES SUGGESTING AN
ABOVE NORMAL FUEL LOAD. WHILE PORTIONS OF THE AREA DID RECEIVE
BENEFICIAL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY MORNING, AMPLE SUNSHINE AND AMBIENT
DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FUELS TO DRY OUT COMPLETELY BY TUESDAY.
OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (75%) THAT WILDFIRE THREAT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT ON TUESDAY.
BLOWING DUST AND IT'S ASSOCIATED HAZARDS WILL BE BE THE OTHER
CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD, WITH SIMILAR CONCERNS AS THE FIRE DANGER
THREAT. THINK THERE IS AMPLE TIME AND APPROPRIATE CONDITIONS
(PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITIES) FOR TOP LAYERS OF SOIL
TO DRY OUT IN WESTERN CWA AND BE PRONE TO BEING LOFTED BY STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY. GIVEN BROAD NATURE OF THE WINDS AND DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 3KM DEEP, THINK THIS WILL BE A PLUME
TYPE DUST EVENT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE WORST IN IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF THE DUST SOURCE AND SHOULD GREATLY IMPROVE AS DUST
DISPERSES THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE THE BROWNOUT THREAT WILL
BE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SOURCE REGIONS, AIR QUALITY
WILL LIKELY BE POOR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AM PARTICULARLY
WORRIED ABOUT EASTERN PORTIONS OF YUMA COUNTY DOWNWIND OF
HEARSTRONG FIRE SCAR. WITH NO VEGETATION COVERAGE, SANDY SOIL
WILL LIKELY BLOW DOWN WIND EASILY. WHILE IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACT
WIND DIRECTION, WRAY AND VERNON AREAS MAY HAVE ESPECIALLY BAD
AIR QUALITY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 118 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY EAST OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. A
MODEST SURFACE CYCLONE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND WYOMING BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS, ESTABLISHING APPROXIMATELY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
THE CWA. SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE DUE TO LEE
CYCLOGENESIS MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO REACH 25-40 KTS (28-46 MPH) BY
MID AFTERNOON IN COUNTIES ALONG THE KS-CO BORDER. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID-TEENS ACROSS THIS AREA MAY CREATE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. NBM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT COUNTIES IN THIS ZONE HAVE A 65-70% CHANCE OR
BETTER FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET THRESHOLDS FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, WITH OVER AN 80% CHANCE FOR COUNTIES IN
EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD, THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SURFACE
WINDS TO FLIP FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO APPROXIMATELY EASTERLY. BOTH
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE WIND SHIFT ARE UNCERTAIN, THOUGH
NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHIFT IS MOST LIKELY AROUND THE
LATE AFTERNOON. ONGOING FIRES DURING A WIND SHIFT WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SUDDENLY CHANGE THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THEY
SPREAD. CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON CURRENTLY RESTS AROUND 30-40%, AND IS HIGHEST FOR
PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO. FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE UPPER-50S TO MID-60S.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. NBM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE
FROM THIS SYSTEM, MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ACCUMULATIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE
INSIGNIFICANT, AS THE PROBABILITY FOR SNOWFALL EXCEEDING HALF AN
INCH IS LESS THAN 10%. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN
THE LOW-20S TO LOW-30S ACROSS THE CWA, THOUGH SNOWFALL AND/OR SOONER
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MAY PROMOTE FURTHER TEMPERATURE DROPS.
CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES APPEARS TO BE
FAVORED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WHICH WOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 40S ALL THREE DAYS, WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE ABLE TO DROP 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST PROVIDED COLD AIR CAN CONTINUE TO COME
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH AND/OR SNOWFALL OCCURS. NBM
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH FRIDAY CURRENTLY SEEMS TO BE THE DAY THAT
STANDS OUT, AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM LOOKS TO CROSS OVER THE
ROCKIES. SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM APPEARS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE SNOW COULD FALL IN THE CWA FROM THIS
EVENT, WITH ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN A DUSTING AND 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IF
IT OCCURS.
TROUGHING MAY LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO SUNDAY,
THOUGH RIDGING LOOKS TO BE FAVORED GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WARMING MAY BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AS THIS
OCCURS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS FOR SUNDAY ARE IN THE LOW TO MID-50S,
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID-20S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 436 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER OFF
THE SURFACE BELOW 2KFT AGL FROM 5-10Z. HOWEVER THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH ANGULAR DIFFERENCE WITH THE WINDS TO QUALIFY AS LLWS. FOG
IS FORECAST EAST OF KMCK. HOWEVER SINCE THE FOG DID NOT IMPACT
THE AIRPORT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL IMPACT THE AIRPORT TONIGHT
EITHER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 206 AM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
UPDATED AT 106 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS
WARNING AREA TODAY, WITH HUMIDITIES STRUGGLING TO FALL TO UNDER
20% DO TO WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION. WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONGER THAN
GUIDANCE SUGGEST, WITH AN ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH THINK
KEEPING WARNING GOING WARRANTED DESPITE HUMIDITY CONCERNS.
CONCERNS MENTIONED IN FOLLOWING PARAGRAPH FROM LAST NIGHT REMAIN
ON TRACK.
HUMIDITY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN AROUND 45% AS TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO FALL OUT OF THE 40S. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A
CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER DAY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS THERE THAT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE AREA TUESDAY BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH
END AND DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER DAY. 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE
ACCORDING TO THE KANSAS MESONET IS FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND
10% WHICH IS REPRESENTATIVE OF VERY DRY CONDITIONS AS WARM AND
BREEZY TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO MITIGATE WIND
GUSTS OF 45-65 MPH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ALONG WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25-40 MPH. THE STRONG SIGNAL FOR THE HIGH SUSTAINED
WINDS, WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY ALSO RESULTS IN
NUMEROUS HOURS OF EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA. THE CONCERNING PART OF THE FORECAST LIES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS,
NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WIND SHIFTS THROUGH
THE DAY. THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GEFS-MEAN
SPREAD IS HINTING AT A DELAYED WIND SHIFT WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
WARMER THAN FORECAST TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
HUMIDITY EVEN MORE. ANOTHER WIND SHIFT IS FORECAST DURING THE
EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 55 MPH CONTINUING AS WELL. BLOWING DUST IS ALSO A CONCERN
WHICH COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL STATIC DRIVEN FIRE STARTS. LIMITED
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS AGAIN FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS LOWER DEW POINTS MOVE IN WITH RH FORECAST NOT TO GET ABOVE
50%. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS AGAIN FORECAST TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AS WELL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001-002-013.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ252-253.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ090>092.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ079>081.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...JTL
FIRE WEATHER...JRM/TRIGG
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