512
FXUS63 KGLD 160915
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
215 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS WITH THE ADDITION
OF GOVE COUNTY.
- POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. VERY
DRY CONDITIONS AND WINDS GUSTING OVER 60 MPH WILL CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.
- BLOWING DUST WILL LIKELY REDUCE AIR QUALITY IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS ON TUESDAY. LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO
DUST PLUMES MAY ALSO HINDER TRAVEL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
MAINLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN INDUCED CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE LOW IS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH IS CLEARING OUT CLOUDS AND LEADING TO SHIFTING WINDS. MONDAY,
ANOTHER MILD DAY IS IN STORE WITH MOST OF THE ARE FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 TO THE LOW 30S FURTHER
EAST. CURRENTLY CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER IS PRETTY LOW AS WE ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO MAY BRING AN HOUR OR TWO OF
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS
TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO COUNTIES. AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE DISCUSSION THAT OPTING TO HOLD OFF ON A
RED FLAG WARNING SEEMS TO BE THE CORRECT WAY TO GO WITH THE LIMITED
COVERAGE AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THE WINDS. ALSO DO HAVE CONCERN THAT
THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AROUND 21Z WHICH FURTHER
DECREASES CONFIDENCE THAT EVEN IF CRITICAL CONDITIONS WERE TO
OCCUR THAT MULTIPLE HOURS WOULD BE VERY TOUGH TO COME BY GIVEN
THE TIME OF THE YEAR AND THE EARLIER START TIME OF THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION SETTING IN. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
BE IN PLACE WHICH FURTHER LOWERS MY CONFIDENCE IN FIRE CONCERNS
AS THIS TYPICALLY KEEP HUMIDITY FROM FULLY FALLING.
MONDAY NIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THIS
IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.
TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE DAY OF INTEREST AS A POTENTIAL MULTI
HAZARD EVENT WITH DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER, STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND BLOWING DUST. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
FORECAST IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 80S ARE FORECAST.I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED AT ALL IF THEY CONTINUE TO INCREASE DUE TO THE
SOUTHWESTERLY "FURNACE WINDS" BEING IN PLACE BUT SOME UPPER LEVEL
CIRRUS THAT SOME GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO PICK UP ON MAY MITIGATE
EXACTLY HOW WARM SOME LOCATIONS COULD GET. SOME OF THE HIGHER
END FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WOULD BE THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN COUNTIES.
STARTING WITH THE WIND, A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALONG AND WEST OF KANSAS HIGHWAY 25 PLUS WITH THE LATEST ADDITION OF
GOVE COUNTY. I DID CONTEMPLATE UPGRADING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
WATCH (ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER) BUT OPTED TO
HOLD OFF DUE TO A WEAKER SIGNAL FOR 50+ KNOT WIND GUSTS AS SEEN IN
THE 00Z HREF. THE MAX GUSTS IN THAT GUIDANCE ACTUALLY ONLY SHOWS
SPOTTY 60 MPH WIND GUSTS FAVORING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OTHER DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS WEAKENED THE CEILING OF THE
WIND POTENTIAL AS WELL WHICH HAS DROPPED MY CONFIDENCE SOME IN
60+ MPH WINDS TO AROUND 55-65%. WITH THAT SAID AT LEAST FOR THE
PAST HIGH WIND EVENTS OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS, SHORTER RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO PICK UP ON THE HIGH WIND
SIGNAL VERSUS THE GFS FOR EXAMPLE WHICH HAS A DEEPER MIXING BIAS
(MIXING HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 8000-10000' AGL) WHERE A 50-60
KNOT JET DOES LIE. OVERALL, HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON UPGRADING
THE WATCH TO ENSURE THAT THE SHORTER RANGE GUIDANCE ISN'T
PICKING UP ON SOMETHING. DID ALSO NOTICE THAT ECMWF ENSEMBLES
WHERE SUGGESTING MORE OF A BROAD LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NEBRASKA
WHICH COULD IMPACT THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AS WELL.
TIMING OF THE WINDS, THE STRONGEST IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR
STARTING AROUND 9AM MT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN THE 850MB JET
IS FORECAST TO BE ITS STRONGEST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40-50 MPH
FORECAST. THIS JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT
WHEN MIXING REALLY DEEPENS MORE SPORADIC GUSTS OF 60-65 MPH MAY
OCCUR. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST, 06Z HRRR AND 03Z
RAP HAS INCREASED 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES TO AROUND 6 MB WHICH IS
HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS BEING SEEN LAST NIGHT. IF THIS IS THE CASE
COULD POTENTIALLY SEE ANOTHER SURGE OF DAMAGING WINDS. 06Z HRRR HAS
A SIMILAR JET AROUND THE 10000-15000' AGL COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS
BUT THE HRRR IS A LITTLE MORE SHALLOW WHICH IF IT WERE TO VERIFY
THEN WIND GUSTS AROUND 70 MPH COULD OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN THAT
CURRENTLY IS AROUND 20-30%. BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE AS WELL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH.
THE NEXT OF THE MULTIPLE HAZARDS IS FIRE WEATHER. THIS PERHAPS
IS THE MOST CONCERNING OF THE HAZARDS. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TALKED ABOUT ABOVE ONE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ASSUME THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS A CONCERN. THE CEILING FOR
THIS EVENT IS EXTREMELY CONCERNING FOR A SPRING SET UP LET ALONE
MID FEBRUARY STANDARDS. A COMBINATION OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
HIGHS, LOW DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE
AFTERNOON RH FALLING AT LEAST INTO THE LOW TEENS AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS SETS THE AREA UP FOR A HIGH END FIRE WEATHER DAY AND
VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT FOR FIRE SPREAD. THE AREA OF GREATEST
CONCERN IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 WHERE THE
HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH
TO ALMOST A NEAR CERTAINTY IN MULTIPLE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER OCCURRING WHICH IS THE REASONING FOR THE CWA WIDE
UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE START TIME
HAS MOVED UP AN HOUR TO 17Z DUE TO THE THREAT OF THE STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS STARTING AND HUMIDITY ALREADY FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 20% AND FALLING. A POTENTIAL FAIL POINT TO THE CEILING OF
THE EVENT COULD BE THE SIGNAL FOR SOME CIRRUS DEVELOPING OFF OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHICH COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT COOLER
THAN FORECAST AND IMPACT HOW STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD GET.
DUST, PLUMES OF BLOWING DUST DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
INITIAL SURGE OF DRY AIR. AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT SURFACE VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AS MORE OF
A HAZE DEVELOPS. A CAVEAT TO THIS HOWEVER IS IF WITH THE INITIAL
COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS WINDS TO THE WEST FROM THE NORTH WEST
THAT A WALL OF DUST COULD FORM. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS INCREASED
A LITTLE BIT TO AROUND 10-15% WITH THE STRONGER PRESSURE RISES
SEEN WITH THE 06Z HRRR AND 03Z RAP. WAS ALSO NOTICING ON THE
2-2.5KM LAPSE RATES ON THE 03Z RAP AN AREA OF LOWER 2-2.5KM
LAPSE RATES MOVING ALONG WITH THE FRONT WHICH COULD BE AN
INDICATOR OF THIS POTENTIAL. EVEN SO, THE 2-2.5KM LAPSE RATES
WERE STILL AROUND 7-7.5 C/KM. IF MIXING HEIGHTS WERE NOT AROUND
10000'AGL THEN OVERALL CONCERN FOR A WALL OF DUST WOULD BE
HIGHER. 00Z GFS WAS SUGGESTING AN AREA ALONG AND AND SOUTH OF
ROUGHLY WILD HORSE TO GOODLAND FROM AROUND 16-20Z THAT MAY BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR BLOWING DUST BEFORE MIXING HEIGHTS
DEEPEN GREATLY WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LONGER
DURATION PLUMES DUE LOWER 2-2.5KM LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
0-2KM LAPSE RATES.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY COLDER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AS LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN PLACE AS WELL LIMITING OVERALL HUMIDITY RECOVERY.
WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND DEEPEN. TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE AND GUST TO AROUND 45 MPH. IN THE CENTER AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHTER.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP
CURRENTLY FAVORING COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AM OPTING TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANOTHER
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO ENSURE THE FOCUS DOESN'T GET TAKEN AWAY
FROM TUESDAY DUE TO THE OVERALL HIGHER END NATURE OF THE FIRE
THREAT FOR THAT DAY. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND INTO THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO
ADDITIONAL LIFT WITH THE LOW AND ANOTHER INCOMING COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY FAVORING NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 118 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY EAST OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. A
MODEST SURFACE CYCLONE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND WYOMING BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS, ESTABLISHING APPROXIMATELY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
THE CWA. SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE DUE TO LEE
CYCLOGENESIS MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO REACH 25-40 KTS (28-46 MPH) BY
MID AFTERNOON IN COUNTIES ALONG THE KS-CO BORDER. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID-TEENS ACROSS THIS AREA MAY CREATE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. NBM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT COUNTIES IN THIS ZONE HAVE A 65-70% CHANCE OR
BETTER FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET THRESHOLDS FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, WITH OVER AN 80% CHANCE FOR COUNTIES IN
EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD, THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SURFACE
WINDS TO FLIP FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO APPROXIMATELY EASTERLY. BOTH
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE WIND SHIFT ARE UNCERTAIN, THOUGH
NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHIFT IS MOST LIKELY AROUND THE
LATE AFTERNOON. ONGOING FIRES DURING A WIND SHIFT WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SUDDENLY CHANGE THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THEY
SPREAD. CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON CURRENTLY RESTS AROUND 30-40%, AND IS HIGHEST FOR
PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO. FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE UPPER-50S TO MID-60S.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. NBM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE
FROM THIS SYSTEM, MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ACCUMULATIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE
INSIGNIFICANT, AS THE PROBABILITY FOR SNOWFALL EXCEEDING HALF AN
INCH IS LESS THAN 10%. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN
THE LOW-20S TO LOW-30S ACROSS THE CWA, THOUGH SNOWFALL AND/OR SOONER
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MAY PROMOTE FURTHER TEMPERATURE DROPS.
CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES APPEARS TO BE
FAVORED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WHICH WOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 40S ALL THREE DAYS, WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE ABLE TO DROP 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST PROVIDED COLD AIR CAN CONTINUE TO COME
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH AND/OR SNOWFALL OCCURS. NBM
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH FRIDAY CURRENTLY SEEMS TO BE THE DAY THAT
STANDS OUT, AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM LOOKS TO CROSS OVER THE
ROCKIES. SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM APPEARS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE SNOW COULD FALL IN THE CWA FROM THIS
EVENT, WITH ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN A DUSTING AND 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IF
IT OCCURS.
TROUGHING MAY LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO SUNDAY,
THOUGH RIDGING LOOKS TO BE FAVORED GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WARMING MAY BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AS THIS
OCCURS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS FOR SUNDAY ARE IN THE LOW TO MID-50S,
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID-20S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST
2KFT AGL CAN BE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
NEW MODEL DATA IS SHOWING EVEN LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FOG TO FORM NEAR KMCK. AS SUCH HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE FORECAST
AND DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
DAY FOR THE AREA TUESDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT MONDAY LEADING TO DRIER AIR ADVECTING
IN AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT
HUMIDITY VALUES MAXING OUT AROUND 50% ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. A
VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE SET FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE AND QUICK MOVING WILD FIRES IS FORECAST TO EXIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40-50 MPH AND WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 55-65
MPH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
FALL AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER TEENS PERHAPS AS LOW AS THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS.
WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20-30 MPH THROUGH AROUND 8-9AM
MT BEFORE QUICKLY RAMPING UP BETWEEN 9-10AM WHERE GUSTS OF
50-65 MPH ARE FORECAST ALONG WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40-50
MPH. WINDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON SUSTAINED WINDS MAY WEAKEN SOME TO AROUND 30-40
MPH WITH 60 MPH GUSTS PERHAPS A BIT MORE SPORADIC AS ANY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE FROM INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS TO
AROUND 10000 FEET AGL. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
SHIFT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION
ALONG WITH VERY LOW DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS HELPING KEEP
HUMIDITY VALUES LOW. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF
DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. BREEZY TO GUSTY
WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
WANING AROUND 11PM MT. BE AWARE FOR BLOWING DUST AND LOCALIZED
DUST STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING
WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOSES/WATER FREEZING UP SHOULD ANY
FIRES STILL BE ONGOING.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH TO ALMOST A NEAR CERTAINTY IN NUMEROUS
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OCCURRING ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN OTHER THAN THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES IS THE DURATION OF THE SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER
THAN 30 MPH AND BEING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH AT TIMES. THIS ALONG
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND THE LOW HUMIDITY IS THE
SIGNAL FOR NUMEROUS HOURS OF EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX
AND FORECAST VALUES EXCEEDING 100. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST PANS
OUT THEN LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO COULD SEE AROUND 8
HOURS OF EXTREME VALUES.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD HUMIDITY VALUES MAXING
OUT AROUND 45-50% WOULD PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ARE CURRENTLY FAVORED
FOR MULTIPLE HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AGAIN AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST UP TO 45 MPH. 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE
IS FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 10% AND THEN FALL BELOW 10% INTO
WEDNESDAY WHICH SUGGESTS VERY DRY FUELS. REGIONAL ERC VALUES
ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL INTERAGENCY COORDINATION CENTER ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO IN BETWEEN 40 AND 50 WHEREAS
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IS LOCATED AT 50. THIS ALSO DOES BRING
CONCERN TO THE UPPER END POTENTIAL OF THIS FIRE WEATHER EVENT
THAT THERE IS IS REGIONAL SUPPORT FOR HIGH ERC'S.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM
CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ252>254.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ090>092.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM
CST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...JTL
FIRE WEATHER...TRIGG
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