819
FXUS63 KGLD 162003
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
103 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. HIGH WIND WATCH UPGRADED TO WARNING FOR
ALL COUNTIES IN WATCH EXCEPT CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS.
- POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. VERY
DRY CONDITIONS AND WINDS GUSTING OVER 60 MPH WILL CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.
- BLOWING DUST WILL LIKELY REDUCE AIR QUALITY IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS ON TUESDAY. LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO
DUST PLUMES MAY ALSO HINDER TRAVEL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
MAINLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN INDUCED CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE LOW IS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH IS CLEARING OUT CLOUDS AND LEADING TO SHIFTING
WINDS. MONDAY, ANOTHER MILD DAY IS IN STORE WITH MOST OF THE ARE
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
25 TO THE LOW 30S FURTHER EAST. CURRENTLY CONCERN FOR FIRE
WEATHER IS PRETTY LOW AS WE ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE AXIS OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO MAY BRING AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH THAT
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE COLORADO COUNTIES. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE DISCUSSION THAT OPTING TO HOLD OFF ON A RED FLAG WARNING
SEEMS TO BE THE CORRECT WAY TO GO WITH THE LIMITED COVERAGE AND
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE WINDS. ALSO DO HAVE CONCERN THAT THE
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AROUND 21Z WHICH FURTHER
DECREASES CONFIDENCE THAT EVEN IF CRITICAL CONDITIONS WERE TO
OCCUR THAT MULTIPLE HOURS WOULD BE VERY TOUGH TO COME BY GIVEN
THE TIME OF THE YEAR AND THE EARLIER START TIME OF THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION SETTING IN. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
BE IN PLACE WHICH FURTHER LOWERS MY CONFIDENCE IN FIRE CONCERNS
AS THIS TYPICALLY KEEP HUMIDITY FROM FULLY FALLING.
MONDAY NIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THIS
IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.
TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE DAY OF INTEREST AS A POTENTIAL
MULTI HAZARD EVENT WITH DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER, STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS AND BLOWING DUST. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 80S ARE
FORECAST.I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL IF THEY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DUE TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY "FURNACE WINDS" BEING IN PLACE
BUT SOME UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS THAT SOME GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO
PICK UP ON MAY MITIGATE EXACTLY HOW WARM SOME LOCATIONS COULD
GET. SOME OF THE HIGHER END FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S WOULD BE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN COUNTIES.
STARTING WITH THE WIND, A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALONG AND WEST OF KANSAS HIGHWAY 25 PLUS WITH THE LATEST
ADDITION OF GOVE COUNTY. I DID CONTEMPLATE UPGRADING WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH (ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS
BORDER) BUT OPTED TO HOLD OFF DUE TO A WEAKER SIGNAL FOR 50+
KNOT WIND GUSTS AS SEEN IN THE 00Z HREF. THE MAX GUSTS IN THAT
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY ONLY SHOWS SPOTTY 60 MPH WIND GUSTS FAVORING
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE HAS WEAKENED THE CEILING OF THE WIND POTENTIAL AS WELL
WHICH HAS DROPPED MY CONFIDENCE SOME IN 60+ MPH WINDS TO AROUND
55-65%. WITH THAT SAID AT LEAST FOR THE PAST HIGH WIND EVENTS
OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS, SHORTER RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT
SLOWER TO PICK UP ON THE HIGH WIND SIGNAL VERSUS THE GFS FOR
EXAMPLE WHICH HAS A DEEPER MIXING BIAS (MIXING HEIGHTS REMAIN
AROUND 8000-10000' AGL) WHERE A 50-60 KNOT JET DOES LIE.
OVERALL, HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON UPGRADING THE WATCH TO ENSURE
THAT THE SHORTER RANGE GUIDANCE ISN'T PICKING UP ON SOMETHING.
DID ALSO NOTICE THAT ECMWF ENSEMBLES WHERE SUGGESTING MORE OF A
BROAD LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NEBRASKA WHICH COULD IMPACT THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AS WELL.
TIMING OF THE WINDS, THE STRONGEST IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
OCCUR STARTING AROUND 9AM MT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN THE
850MB JET IS FORECAST TO BE ITS STRONGEST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40-50 MPH FORECAST. THIS JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME INTO THE
AFTERNOON BUT WHEN MIXING REALLY DEEPENS MORE SPORADIC GUSTS OF
60-65 MPH MAY OCCUR. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
WEST, 06Z HRRR AND 03Z RAP HAS INCREASED 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES
TO AROUND 6 MB WHICH IS HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS BEING SEEN LAST
NIGHT. IF THIS IS THE CASE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE ANOTHER SURGE
OF DAMAGING WINDS. 06Z HRRR HAS A SIMILAR JET AROUND THE
10000-15000' AGL COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS BUT THE HRRR IS A
LITTLE MORE SHALLOW WHICH IF IT WERE TO VERIFY THEN WIND GUSTS
AROUND 70 MPH COULD OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN THAT CURRENTLY IS
AROUND 20-30%. BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS
WELL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH.
THE NEXT OF THE MULTIPLE HAZARDS IS FIRE WEATHER. THIS PERHAPS
IS THE MOST CONCERNING OF THE HAZARDS. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TALKED ABOUT ABOVE ONE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ASSUME THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS A CONCERN. THE CEILING FOR
THIS EVENT IS EXTREMELY CONCERNING FOR A SPRING SET UP LET ALONE
MID FEBRUARY STANDARDS. A COMBINATION OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
HIGHS, LOW DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE
AFTERNOON RH FALLING AT LEAST INTO THE LOW TEENS AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS SETS THE AREA UP FOR A HIGH END FIRE WEATHER DAY AND
VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT FOR FIRE SPREAD. THE AREA OF GREATEST
CONCERN IS CURRENTLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 WHERE THE
HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH
TO ALMOST A NEAR CERTAINTY IN MULTIPLE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER OCCURRING WHICH IS THE REASONING FOR THE CWA WIDE
UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE START TIME
HAS MOVED UP AN HOUR TO 17Z DUE TO THE THREAT OF THE STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS STARTING AND HUMIDITY ALREADY FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 20% AND FALLING. A POTENTIAL FAIL POINT TO THE CEILING OF
THE EVENT COULD BE THE SIGNAL FOR SOME CIRRUS DEVELOPING OFF OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHICH COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT COOLER
THAN FORECAST AND IMPACT HOW STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD GET.
DUST, PLUMES OF BLOWING DUST DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON DUE
TO THE INITIAL SURGE OF DRY AIR. AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SURFACE VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AS
MORE OF A HAZE DEVELOPS. A CAVEAT TO THIS HOWEVER IS IF WITH THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS WINDS TO THE WEST FROM THE NORTH
WEST THAT A WALL OF DUST COULD FORM. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS
INCREASED A LITTLE BIT TO AROUND 10-15% WITH THE STRONGER
PRESSURE RISES SEEN WITH THE 06Z HRRR AND 03Z RAP. WAS ALSO
NOTICING ON THE 2-2.5KM LAPSE RATES ON THE 03Z RAP AN AREA OF
LOWER 2-2.5KM LAPSE RATES MOVING ALONG WITH THE FRONT WHICH
COULD BE AN INDICATOR OF THIS POTENTIAL. EVEN SO, THE 2-2.5KM
LAPSE RATES WERE STILL AROUND 7-7.5 C/KM. IF MIXING HEIGHTS WERE
NOT AROUND 10000'AGL THEN OVERALL CONCERN FOR A WALL OF DUST
WOULD BE HIGHER. 00Z GFS WAS SUGGESTING AN AREA ALONG AND AND
SOUTH OF ROUGHLY WILD HORSE TO GOODLAND FROM AROUND 16-20Z THAT
MAY BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR BLOWING DUST BEFORE MIXING HEIGHTS
DEEPEN GREATLY WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LONGER
DURATION PLUMES DUE LOWER 2-2.5KM LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
0-2KM LAPSE RATES.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY COLDER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN PLACE AS WELL LIMITING OVERALL HUMIDITY RECOVERY.
WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND DEEPEN. TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AND GUST TO AROUND
45 MPH. IN THE CENTER AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LIGHTER. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP CURRENTLY FAVORING COUNTIES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER WHERE
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AM OPTING TO HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO ENSURE THE FOCUS DOESN'T
GET TAKEN AWAY FROM TUESDAY DUE TO THE OVERALL HIGHER END NATURE
OF THE FIRE THREAT FOR THAT DAY. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE
TO ADDITIONAL LIFT WITH THE LOW AND ANOTHER INCOMING COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY FAVORING NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES LOOKS TO ALLOW A
SURFACE CYCLONE TO FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
SOUTHERN WYOMING WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW IS
FAVORED TO TAKE PLACE DUE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS, AND WOULD ESTABLISH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EARLY TO MID-
MORNING HOURS. WIND GUSTS BY THE MID-AFTERNOON MAY REACH 25-40 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
FORECASTED RH VALUES IN THE MID-TEENS ACROSS THIS ZONE MAY IMPLICATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AS A POTENTIAL HAZARD. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
AROUND A 30-40% CHANCE EXISTS FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET OR EXCEED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS, WITH
A 50-60% CHANCE OR BETTER FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO.
CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED IS HIGHEST FOR EAST-
CENTRAL COLORADO AT AROUND 50%, WHEREAS CONFIDENCE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS RESTS AROUND 25-30%.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, SURFACE WINDS MAY GO FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
EASTERLY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN KANSAS, NORTHEAST
COLORADO, AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ONGOING FIRES IN THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WIND SHIFT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SUDDENLY CHANGE THE
DIRECTION IN WHICH THEY SPREAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER-50S TO MID-60S.
WINTER WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE 20S ACROSS THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE, WITH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EXPERIENCING THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (25-40%) THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NORTHWEST KANSAS MAY HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES
MOST PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST REGION
BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH UP TO AN
INCH AND A HALF ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, THOUGH SOLUTIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN THE START OF
THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-30S TO UPPER-40S, AND LOWS
IN THE TEENS.
MODEL DIVERGENCE IS A BIT HIGHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY
REGARDING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IF THIS
FEATURE IS ABLE TO EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES, ANOTHER
WINTER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. ABOUT 25% OF
GEFS/ECMWF MEMBERS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
FROM THIS SYSTEM, WITH AROUND HALF OF THESE MEMBERS INDICATING
SNOWFALL MEETING OR NEARING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. TIMING
AND COVERAGE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, THOUGH NBM AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. COOLER TEMPERATURES
STILL SEEM TO BE FAVORED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID-40S, AND MID TO UPPER-40S RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES MAY BE 5-10 DEGREES LOWER, PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY, IF
PRECIPITATION IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR, NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALLOWED
TO SET UP SOONER THAN SATURDAY MORNING, OR WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY ARE STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO BE FAVORED FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS
LOOK TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH THIS SETUP, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE IN THE UPPER-40S TO LOW-50S, AND UPPER-50S TO
LOW-60S RESPECTIVELY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
AVIATION CONCERNS OVER NEXT 24 HOURS WILL LIKELY NOT BE TIED TO
FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. CONCERNS WILL
BE DIRECTLY TIED TO STREGTHENING WINDS AS A RESULT OF DEEPENING
LOW OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. INTIALLY, LOW LEVEL JET WILL
INREASE AFTER 09Z, WITH FLOW ALOFT INCREASING TO 50-55KTS ABOVE
INVERSION. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM STRONGEST FLOW
AT THIS TIME, EXPECT A PERIOD OF LLWS NEAR THE BASE OF THIS
INVERSION IN THE 500-900 FEET REGION AT BOTH SITES. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO MIX DOWN AFTER SUNRISE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 50KTS AT
KGLD BY 16Z. PLUMES OF BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE, BUT NARROWING
DOWN SPECIFIC SOURCE REGIONS FOR VISIBILITY IMPACTS NOT SKILLED
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ENOUGH DETAIL AT THIS POINT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER DAY FOR THE AREA TUESDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT MONDAY LEADING TO DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN
AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
VALUES MAXING OUT AROUND 50% ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. A
VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE SET FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE AND QUICK MOVING WILD FIRES IS FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 40-50 MPH AND WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 55-65 MPH ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO FALL AT
LEAST INTO THE LOWER TEENS PERHAPS AS LOW AS THE MID SINGLE
DIGITS.
WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20-30 MPH THROUGH AROUND
8-9AM MT BEFORE QUICKLY RAMPING UP BETWEEN 9-10AM WHERE GUSTS OF
50-65 MPH ARE FORECAST ALONG WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40-50
MPH. WINDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON SUSTAINED WINDS MAY WEAKEN SOME TO AROUND 30-40
MPH WITH 60 MPH GUSTS PERHAPS A BIT MORE SPORADIC AS ANY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE FROM INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS TO
AROUND 10000 FEET AGL. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
SHIFT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION
ALONG WITH VERY LOW DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS HELPING KEEP
HUMIDITY VALUES LOW. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF
DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. BREEZY TO GUSTY
WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
WANING AROUND 11PM MT. BE AWARE FOR BLOWING DUST AND LOCALIZED
DUST STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING WHICH
COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOSES/WATER FREEZING UP SHOULD ANY
FIRES STILL BE ONGOING.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH TO ALMOST A NEAR CERTAINTY IN NUMEROUS
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OCCURRING ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN OTHER THAN THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES IS THE DURATION OF THE SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER
THAN 30 MPH AND BEING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH AT TIMES. THIS ALONG
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND THE LOW HUMIDITY IS THE
SIGNAL FOR NUMEROUS HOURS OF EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX
AND FORECAST VALUES EXCEEDING 100. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST PANS
OUT THEN LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO COULD SEE AROUND 8
HOURS OF EXTREME VALUES.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD HUMIDITY VALUES
MAXING OUT AROUND 45-50% WOULD PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ARE CURRENTLY
FAVORED FOR MULTIPLE HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AGAIN AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST UP TO 45 MPH. 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 10% AND THEN FALL BELOW
10% INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH SUGGESTS VERY DRY FUELS. REGIONAL ERC
VALUES ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL INTERAGENCY COORDINATION CENTER
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO IN BETWEEN 40 AND 50
WHEREAS THE 90TH PERCENTILE IS LOCATED AT 50. THIS ALSO DOES
BRING CONCERN TO THE UPPER END POTENTIAL OF THIS FIRE WEATHER
EVENT THAT THERE IS IS REGIONAL SUPPORT FOR HIGH ERC'S.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM
CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM
CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ013-014-027>029-041-042.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001-002.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ252>254.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM
CST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...JRM/TRIGG/KAK
FIRE WEATHER...TRIGG
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