473
FXUS63 KGLD 162316 CCA
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
416 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND WATCH UPGRADED TO WARNING FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT
CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS IN NORTHWEST KANSAS.
- POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. VERY
DRY CONDITIONS AND WINDS GUSTING OVER 60 MPH WILL CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.
- BLOWING DUST WILL LIKELY REDUCE AIR QUALITY IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS ON TUESDAY. LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO
DUST PLUMES MAY ALSO HINDER TRAVEL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 149 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH STRONG CLOSED LOW MOVING ONTO THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. AT THE SURFACE, LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE NM/OK BORDER WITH
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST TOWARDS KDEN.
TONIGHT...CALM BEFORE THE STORM WOULD BE AN APPROPRIATE WAY TO
DESCRIBE THE PATTERN TONIGHT. SFC TROUGH/LOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE. ASIDE FROM THE AVIATION CONCERNS AROUND LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR, SHOULD BE OVERALL TRANQUIL EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED STRONG TROUGH ENTERING
THE WEST COAST WILL BE EJECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
ONTO NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INTENSE HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH 50-55KTS SITTING ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ONE WHERE AS ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY MIX DOWN FROM TIME TO TIME AS
THE SUSTAINED WINDS GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO NEAR 40 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THIS DEEPLY MIXED LAYER WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA, WITH SOME INDICATION OF A
SECOND SURGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WHILE CONCERNS REMAIN ON THE EXACT COVERAGE OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS, CONFIDENCE IN PATTERN HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE THE HIGH
WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR ALL BUT 2 OF THE COUNTIES ON
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE WINDS AS CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 40 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
REGARDLESS OF WHAT MAXIMUM WIND GUST COVERAGE IS.
DUST WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS WELL, ALTHOUGH DEEP MIXED
LAYER BY THE AFTERNOON WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SCATTERED DUST PLUMES
AS OPPOSED TO A MOVING WALL OF DUST. THREAT FOR THE ORGANIZED
MOVING DUST THREAT WOULD BE TIED TO INITIAL ONSET OF STRONG WINDS
AS IT SPREADS WEST TO EAST IN THE LATE MORNING, BUT THINK THAT
SCENARIO HAS A PROBABILITY OF < 10%. WITH A MIXED LAYER GROWING TO
OVER 3KM DEEP AS WINDS STRENGTHEN, THINK BROWNOUT THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE TIED TO WITHIN 1 TO 3 MILES OF EACH SOURCE REGION. POOR
AIR QUALITY WILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD, SO TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EASILY REACH CRITICAL VALUES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. USING LOCAL GFDI DATA, THERE ARE
SEVERAL LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE NEARLY 8 HOURS OF EXTREME FIRE
DANGER AS THE STRONG WINDS ADVECT SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
INTO THE AREA. MAIN CONCERN NOW IS WHETHER OR NOT FIRE DANGER WILL
BE SO EXTREME IT IS APPROACHING A HISTORIC TYPE THREAT. IF NOT FOR
THE RECENT RAIN ON SATURDAY WOULD BE COMFORTABLE MESSAGING A
'PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION' ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT
THE RECENT WIDESPREAD 0.5-1.0" OF RAIN DOES RAISE SOME
CONCERNS. MAJORITY OF FUELS IN AREA ARE 1 HOUR FUELS THOUGH AND
WITH FUELS REMAINING CURED THIS TIME OF THE YEAR I DON'T THINK
THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT FIRE GROWTH. WITH ERC VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND AFOREMENTIONED REASONS, THINK PDS WORDING IS WARRANTED FOR
SEVERAL AREAS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES LOOKS TO ALLOW A
SURFACE CYCLONE TO FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
SOUTHERN WYOMING WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW IS
FAVORED TO TAKE PLACE DUE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS, AND WOULD ESTABLISH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EARLY TO MID-
MORNING HOURS. WIND GUSTS BY THE MID-AFTERNOON MAY REACH 25-40 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
FORECASTED RH VALUES IN THE MID-TEENS ACROSS THIS ZONE MAY IMPLICATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AS A POTENTIAL HAZARD. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
AROUND A 30-40% CHANCE EXISTS FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET OR EXCEED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS, WITH
A 50-60% CHANCE OR BETTER FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO.
CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED IS HIGHEST FOR EAST-
CENTRAL COLORADO AT AROUND 50%, WHEREAS CONFIDENCE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS RESTS AROUND 25-30%.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, SURFACE WINDS MAY GO FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
EASTERLY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN KANSAS, NORTHEAST
COLORADO, AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ONGOING FIRES IN THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WIND SHIFT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SUDDEN1 HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE
UPPER-50S TO MID-60S.
WINTER WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE 20S ACROSS THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE, WITH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EXPERIENCING THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (25-40%) THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NORTHWEST KANSAS MAY HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES
MOST PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST REGION
BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH UP TO AN
INCH AND A HALF ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, THOUGH SOLUTIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN THE START OF
THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-30S TO UPPER-40S, AND LOWS
IN THE TEENS.
MODEL DIVERGENCE IS A BIT HIGHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY
REGARDING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IF THIS
FEATURE IS ABLE TO EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES, ANOTHER
WINTER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. ABOUT 25% OF
GEFS/ECMWF MEMBERS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
FROM THIS SYSTEM, WITH AROUND HALF OF THESE MEMBERS INDICATING
SNOWFALL MEETING OR NEARING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. TIMING
AND COVERAGE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, THOUGH NBM AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. COOLER TEMPERATURES
STILL SEEM TO BE FAVORED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID-40S, AND MID TO UPPER-40S RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES MAY BE 5-10 DEGREES LOWER, PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY, IF
PRECIPITATION IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR, NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALLOWED
TO SET UP SOONER THAN SATURDAY MORNING, OR WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY ARE STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO BE FAVORED FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS
LOOK TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH THIS SETUP, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE IN THE UPPER-40S TO LOW-50S, AND UPPER-50S TO
LOW-60S RESPECTIVELY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 413 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH TONIGHT.
ON TUESDAY, SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY AROUND 16-17Z AS THE
INVERSION BREAKS, WITH GUSTS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO 30-50KTS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN
BLOWING DUST MAY BECOME A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY AT KGLD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
UPDATED AT 151 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
CURRENT FIRE WEATHER FORECAST CONCERNS ON TRACK, PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION CONTINUES BELOW.
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER DAY FOR THE AREA TUESDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT MONDAY LEADING TO DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN
AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
VALUES MAXING OUT AROUND 50% ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. A
VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE SET FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE AND QUICK MOVING WILD FIRES IS FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 40-50 MPH AND WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 55-65 MPH ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO FALL AT
LEAST INTO THE LOWER TEENS PERHAPS AS LOW AS THE MID SINGLE
DIGITS.
WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20-30 MPH THROUGH AROUND
8-9AM MT BEFORE QUICKLY RAMPING UP BETWEEN 9-10AM WHERE GUSTS OF
50-65 MPH ARE FORECAST ALONG WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40-50
MPH. WINDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON SUSTAINED WINDS MAY WEAKEN SOME TO AROUND 30-40
MPH WITH 60 MPH GUSTS PERHAPS A BIT MORE SPORADIC AS ANY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE FROM INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS TO
AROUND 10000 FEET AGL. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
SHIFT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION
ALONG WITH VERY LOW DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS HELPING KEEP
HUMIDITY VALUES LOW. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF
DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. BREEZY TO GUSTY
WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
WANING AROUND 11PM MT. BE AWARE FOR BLOWING DUST AND LOCALIZED
DUST STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING WHICH
COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOSES/WATER FREEZING UP SHOULD ANY
FIRES STILL BE ONGOING.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH TO ALMOST A NEAR CERTAINTY IN NUMEROUS
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OCCURRING ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN OTHER THAN THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES IS THE DURATION OF THE SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER
THAN 30 MPH AND BEING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH AT TIMES. THIS ALONG
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND THE LOW HUMIDITY IS THE
SIGNAL FOR NUMEROUS HOURS OF EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX
AND FORECAST VALUES EXCEEDING 100. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST PANS
OUT THEN LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO COULD SEE AROUND 8
HOURS OF EXTREME VALUES.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD HUMIDITY VALUES
MAXING OUT AROUND 45-50% WOULD PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ARE CURRENTLY
FAVORED FOR MULTIPLE HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AGAIN AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST UP TO 45 MPH. 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 10% AND THEN FALL BELOW
10% INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH SUGGESTS VERY DRY FUELS. REGIONAL ERC
VALUES ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL INTERAGENCY COORDINATION CENTER
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO IN BETWEEN 40 AND 50
WHEREAS THE 90TH PERCENTILE IS LOCATED AT 50. THIS ALSO DOES
BRING CONCERN TO THE UPPER END POTENTIAL OF THIS FIRE WEATHER
EVENT THAT THERE IS IS REGIONAL SUPPORT FOR HIGH ERC'S.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM
CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM
CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ013-014-027>029-041-042.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001-002.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ252>254.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM
CST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...TRIGG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page