868
FXUS63 KGLD 170947
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
247 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY. EVEN IF NOT
IN THE WARNING STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST.
- POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. RED
FLAG AND PARTICULAR DANGEROUS SITUATION (PDS) RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND WINDS GUSTING
OVER 60 MPH WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE
FIRE GROWTH.
- BLOWING DUST WILL LIKELY REDUCE AIR QUALITY IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS ON TUESDAY. LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO
DUST PLUMES MAY ALSO HINDER TRAVEL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 239 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
OUR WELL ADVERTISED SYSTEM IS STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE AS WINDS ARE
SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM IS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THESE TWO FACTORS ARE HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD FOR MID FEBRUARY STANDARDS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
A MULTI HAZARD EVENT WITH DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER, STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS AND BLOWING DUST STILL REMAINS ON THE TABLE FOR TODAY; THERE
ARE HOWEVER A FEW FAIL POINTS THAT ARE PRESENTING THEMSELVES WITH
ANY POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT EVENT. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 80S ARE FORECAST. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER STILL THAN FORECAST
DUE TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEING IN THE FAVORED "FURNACE"
DIRECTION OF 210-240 DEGREES. SOME OF THE HIGHER END FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WOULD BE THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN COUNTIES.
A POTENTIAL FAIL POINT TO THE EVENT IS IF SOUTHWEST WINDS TURN FROM
THE "FURNACE" DIRECTIONS QUICKER TO THE WEST WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST. IF THIS OCCURS (30%
CHANCE) THEN HUMIDITY WOULD BE DELAYED A FEW HOURS TO FALL BELOW
15% WHICH WOULD CUT DOWN ON THE NUMBER OF HOURS OF TECHNICAL
CRITICAL CONDITIONS (15% RH). WINDS WILL STILL BE THERE HOWEVER.
WINDS WILL BE WHERE ANOTHER POTENTIAL FAIL POINT COULD BE.
THERE STILL CONTINUES TO BE SOME SIGNAL OF THE SYSTEM
BROADENING OUT SOME WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A SHORTER DURATION OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS (35% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE). THIS WOULD
STILL LEAD STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING BUT
THE DURATION WOULD BE MUCH SHORTER. STILL EVEN WITH THESE OTHER
SCENARIOS CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL REMAINS
HIGH.
SO WHAT ARE EXPECTING?
PERHAPS THE MOST CONCERNING OF TODAY'S IS FIRE WEATHER. WITH THE
WARM TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TALKED ABOUT ABOVE ONE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO ASSUME THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS A CONCERN. THE
CEILING FOR THIS EVENT IS EXTREMELY HIGH TO EVEN PERHAPS
HISTORIC FOR A SPRING SET UP LET ALONE MID FEBRUARY STANDARDS. A
COMBINATION OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGHS, LOW DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON RH FALLING
AT LEAST INTO THE LOW TEENS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SETS THE
AREA UP FOR A HIGH END FIRE WEATHER DAY AND VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT
FOR FIRE SPREAD. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE AREA STILL LOOKS
SOLID FOR MULTIPLE HOURS.
A PORTION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING HOWEVER HAS A MUCH HIGHER CEILING
FOR THE FIRE WEATHER RISK. THIS IS WHERE A PARTICULAR DANGEROUS
SITUATION (PDS) RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS AREA IS
WHERE A COMBINATION WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE
STRONGEST WINDS (SUSTAINED 30-40 MPH, LOCALLY HIGHER AND GUSTS
UP TO 65 MPH), LOWEST HUMIDITY AND DRIEST FUELS RESIDE. WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PDS AREA MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FURTHER SOUTH AS THE STRONGER JET MAXES IN THE 850 AND
700MB LEVELS LIE. THE REASONING FOR THIS AREA TO BE INCLUDED IS
DUE TO DROUGHT CREEPING BACK IN AND ERC'S APPROACHING THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. KANSAS MESONET DATA ALSO SHOWS NEARLY 3-4 MONTHS
WITHOUT 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAIN AND NEARLY 3 MONTHS WITHOUT 1/4
OF AN INCH OF RAIN. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PDS WARNING, YES WE
DID SEE RAIN 72-96 HOURS AGO BUT THERE WAS A LONG STRETCH WITH
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE. WITH ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE
SPRING AND SUMMER LED TO AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF FUELS WHICH ARE
NOW DORMANT LEADING TO FUEL LOAD CONCERNS. ANYWAYS, THE CONCERN
IS THERE FOR NUMEROUS HOURS OF CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE AND
RAPIDLY MOVING WILDFIRES TODAY. WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS IS WHEN DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO PLUMMET POSSIBLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. ANOTHER
NEW ASPECT WHICH CURRENTLY HAS LOW CONFIDENCE IN IS THERE IS A
LESS THAN 5% CHANCE FOR HIGH BASED VIRGA WHICH COULD HAVE SOME
DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. THIS LOOKS TO FORM ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE FRONT FAVORING RAWLINS, DECATUR, NORTON COUNTIES. SOME
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE SO A ROGUE
LIGHTNING STRIKE CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WOULD
BE FOR DOWNBURST WINDS OVER A FIRE WHICH WOULD ADD AN EXTRA
COMPLICATING LAYER TO TODAY'S FORECAST.
NOW TO THE WIND. I DID OPT NOT TO UPGRADE CHEYENNE AND RAWLINS
COUNTY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE IN
GUSTS TO 58 MPH OR HIGHER. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO PROXIMITY OF
THE STRONGEST JETS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AND THE HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE DURING THE AFTERNOON SURGE. THERE COULD BE A ROGUE
GUST SOMEWHERE ACROSS EACH COUNTY BUT EVEN WITH THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND DEEPEST MIXING GUIDANCE IT WAS ONLY SHOWING
AROUND 45 KNOTS WITHIN THE MIXING LAYER FOR THOSE COUNTIES.
CURRENT WIND GUST EXPECTATIONS IS AROUND 65 MPH. GFS, RRFS AND
HRRR SOUNDINGS ACROSS SHERMAN AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES DO SHOW
60-65 KNOT GUSTS JUST ABOVE THE MIXING LAYER WHICH COULD MIX
DOWN LEADING TO SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND 70-75 MPH BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS ONLY AROUND 20% AS EVEN THE HREF MAX
WIND OUTPUT ISN'T THAT AGGRESSIVE. THE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
850-700MB LAYER IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH A LARGE AREA OF 30-40
KNOT WINDS IN THE WIND FIELD. CONSISTENTLY HIGH SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 30-45 MPH EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE AND SOME SITES
MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO REACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ON
SUSTAINED WINDS ALONE.
TIMING OF THE WINDS, THE STRONGEST IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR
STARTING AROUND 9AM MT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN THE 850MB JET
IS FORECAST TO BE ITS STRONGEST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40-50 MPH
FORECAST. THIS JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT
WHEN MIXING REALLY DEEPENS MORE SPORADIC GUSTS OF 60-65 MPH MAY
OCCUR. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST, 06Z HRRR AND 03Z
RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES TO AROUND 6 MB
WHICH WHICH IS INCREASING MY CONFIDENCE THAT THE 2ND SURGE OF
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL OCCUR. THE FAVORED AREAS FOR THIS
LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS UP
TO 65 MPH WOULD BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
NEXT POTENTIAL HAZARD IS DUST. THIS HAZARD HAS BEEN THE MOST
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN CONFIDENCE WITH. PLUMES OF BLOWING DUST DUE
TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST AND LOOK MOST LIKELY DURING THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON DUE TO THE INITIAL SURGE
OF WIND. THIS IS ALSO BEFORE MIXING HEIGHTS DEEPEN TO AROUND
10000' AGL. DUE TO THIS HAVE ADDED IN A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR DUST FAVORING KIT CARSON, SHERMAN, WALLACE,
THOMAS, LOGAN, GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES. IF THIS INITIAL
SURGE OF WIND CAN BE STRONG ENOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A WALL OF DUST
OCCURRING BUT CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 5-10% AT THIS TIME IN THAT
AS PRESSURE RISE ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG DESPITE THE STRONGER
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IN PLACE. MIXING HEIGHTS AS MENTIONED ARE
FORECAST TO QUICKLY DEEPEN WHICH SHOULD HELP MIX OUT ANY DUST
INTO THE ATMOSPHERE HELPING IMPROVE ANY SURFACE VISIBILITIES
BUT ALSO DEGRADING AIR QUALITY DUE TO A HAZE IN THE AIR. THE
MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE DUST FORECAST IS WITH OUR 2ND SURGE
OF WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUE TO NOTICE ON THE 2-2.5KM LAPSE RATES ON NOW ON MULTIPLE
GUIDANCE AN AREA OF LOWER 2-2.5KM LAPSE RATES MOVING ALONG WITH THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATOR OF A WALL OF DUST. I DO
RECALL FROM LAST MARCH'S DUST EVENT SEEING SIMILAR SIGNALS SO
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR QUICK BUT SHORT LASTING OR EVEN
TRANSIENT WALLS OF DUST WITH THIS FRONT. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR
THIS MAY BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS THAN A LONGER LIVED WALL OF DUST
WHICH CAN BE SEEN COMING FOR MILES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS
AROUND 20% OF OCCURRENCE MAINLY DUE TO THE HIGH FORECASTED
MIXING HEIGHTS. IF MIXING HEIGHTS COULD LOWER SOME THEN MY
CONCERN IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD FAVOR A ROUGHLY WILD HORSE TO GOODLAND
FROM AROUND 20-23Z TIME FRAME OF OCCURRENCE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
AS WELL IF ANY DOWNDRAFTS FROM VIRGA CAN OCCUR THEN THAT COULD
LEAD TO MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR WALLS OF DUST TO FORM BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LESS THAN 5%.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY COLDER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AS LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN PLACE AS WELL LIMITING OVERALL HUMIDITY RECOVERY.
WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND DEEPEN. TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE AND GUST TO AROUND 45 MPH. IN THE CENTER AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHTER.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AM OPTING TO
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME TO
ENSURE THE FOCUS DOESN'T GET TAKEN AWAY FROM TODAY DUE TO THE
OVERALL HIGHER END NATURE OF THE FIRE THREAT FOR THAT DAY. THE
AREA OF CONCERN IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CHEYENNE (CO), WALLACE, KIT
CARSON, GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE START OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD DUE TO ADDITIONAL LIFT WITH THE LOW AND ANOTHER INCOMING
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FAVORING NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES LOOKS TO ALLOW A
SURFACE CYCLONE TO FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
SOUTHERN WYOMING WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW IS
FAVORED TO TAKE PLACE DUE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS, AND WOULD ESTABLISH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EARLY TO MID-
MORNING HOURS. WIND GUSTS BY THE MID-AFTERNOON MAY REACH 25-40 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
FORECASTED RH VALUES IN THE MID-TEENS ACROSS THIS ZONE MAY IMPLICATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AS A POTENTIAL HAZARD. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
AROUND A 30-40% CHANCE EXISTS FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET OR EXCEED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS, WITH
A 50-60% CHANCE OR BETTER FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO.
CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED IS HIGHEST FOR EAST-
CENTRAL COLORADO AT AROUND 50%, WHEREAS CONFIDENCE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS RESTS AROUND 25-30%.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, SURFACE WINDS MAY GO FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
EASTERLY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN KANSAS, NORTHEAST
COLORADO, AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ONGOING FIRES IN THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WIND SHIFT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SUDDEN1 HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE
UPPER-50S TO MID-60S.
WINTER WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE 20S ACROSS THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE, WITH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EXPERIENCING THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (25-40%) THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NORTHWEST KANSAS MAY HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES
MOST PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST REGION
BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH UP TO AN
INCH AND A HALF ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, THOUGH SOLUTIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN THE START OF
THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-30S TO UPPER-40S, AND LOWS
IN THE TEENS.
MODEL DIVERGENCE IS A BIT HIGHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY
REGARDING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IF THIS
FEATURE IS ABLE TO EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES, ANOTHER
WINTER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. ABOUT 25% OF
GEFS/ECMWF MEMBERS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
FROM THIS SYSTEM, WITH AROUND HALF OF THESE MEMBERS INDICATING
SNOWFALL MEETING OR NEARING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. TIMING
AND COVERAGE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, THOUGH NBM AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. COOLER TEMPERATURES
STILL SEEM TO BE FAVORED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID-40S, AND MID TO UPPER-40S RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES MAY BE 5-10 DEGREES LOWER, PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY, IF
PRECIPITATION IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR, NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALLOWED
TO SET UP SOONER THAN SATURDAY MORNING, OR WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY ARE STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO BE FAVORED FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS
LOOK TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH THIS SETUP, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE IN THE UPPER-40S TO LOW-50S, AND UPPER-50S TO
LOW-60S RESPECTIVELY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD BUT
WITH SOME CAVEATS THROWN IN THERE. FIRST OFF, WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. LLWS IS ALSO A CONCERN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD INCREASES. IF SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS CAN MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE THEN LLWS MAY NOT BE AS BIG OF AN ISSUE BUT
CURRENTLY AM THINKING THAT WINDS OVER WILL WILL REMAIN AROUND
10-15 KNOTS SUSTAINED. AS SOON AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION BREAKS
THIS IS WHEN STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS. BLOWING DUST LEADING TO A HAZE MAY LEAD
TO SOME CEILINGS LESS THAN 030 BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING
IS NOT THERE TO GO FULL ON MVFR FOR THE TAF AT THIS TIME. SHOULD
A PLUME OF DUST MOVE OVER A TERMINAL THEN THEN THIS IS WHERE
FLIGHT CATEGORY REDUCTIONS COULD COME IN TO PLAY. THINK THE
FAVORED TIME IS BETWEEN 16 AND 20Z WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR
THE GLD TERMINAL WHERE THE STRONGER WINDS ARE FAVORED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 239 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
DAY FOR THE AREA TODAY. PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAS BEEN DESIGNATED
A PARTICULAR DANGEROUS SITUATION (PDS) WORDING FOR THEIR RED
FLAG WARNING PRODUCT. THIS IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT
LEAST IN SOME OVERLAP OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS, VERY LOW
HUMIDITY AND THE DRIEST OF FUELS.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
LEADING TO DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN AND AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURESRESULTING IN OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY VALUES MAXING OUT
AROUND 50% ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT IS
FORECAST TO BE SET FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE AND QUICK MOVING
WILD FIRES IS FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40-50 MPH AND
WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 55-65 MPH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO FALL AT LEAST INTO THE
LOWER TEENS PERHAPS AS LOW AS THE MID SINGLE DIGITS.
WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20-30 MPH THROUGH AROUND 8-9AM
MT BEFORE QUICKLY RAMPING UP BETWEEN 9-10AM WHERE GUSTS OF 50-65 MPH
ARE FORECAST ALONG WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40-50 MPH. WINDS
DURING THIS TIME WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SUSTAINED WINDS MAY WEAKEN SOME TO AROUND 30-40 MPH WITH
60 MPH GUSTS PERHAPS A BIT MORE SPORADIC AS ANY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE FROM INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS TO AROUND 10000 FEET AGL. A
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION ALONG WITH VERY LOW DEW
POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS HELPING KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES LOW. THERE
IS SOME CONCERN FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE COLD
FRONT AS WELL. BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE WANING AROUND 11PM MT. BE AWARE FOR
BLOWING DUST AND LOCALIZED DUST STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO
FALL BELOW FREEZING WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOSES/WATER
FREEZING UP SHOULD ANY FIRES STILL BE ONGOING.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH TO ALMOST A NEAR CERTAINTY IN NUMEROUS
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OCCURRING ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN OTHER THAN THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES IS THE DURATION OF THE SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER
THAN 30 MPH AND BEING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH AT TIMES. THIS ALONG
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND THE LOW HUMIDITY IS THE
SIGNAL FOR NUMEROUS HOURS OF EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX
AND FORECAST VALUES EXCEEDING 100. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST PANS
OUT THEN LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO COULD SEE AROUND 8
HOURS OF EXTREME VALUES.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD HUMIDITY VALUES MAXING
OUT AROUND 45-50% WOULD PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ARE CURRENTLY FAVORED
FOR MULTIPLE HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AGAIN AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST UP TO 45 MPH. 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE
IS FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 10% AND THEN FALL BELOW 10% INTO
WEDNESDAY WHICH SUGGESTS VERY DRY FUELS. REGIONAL ERC VALUES
ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL INTERAGENCY COORDINATION CENTER FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
CLIMB TO IN BETWEEN 40 AND 50 WHEREAS THE 90TH PERCENTILE IS
LOCATED AT 50. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA CURRENTLY HAS ERC'S IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE ACCORDING
TO THE SAME SITE. THIS ALSO DOES BRING CONCERN TO THE UPPER END
POTENTIAL OF THIS FIRE WEATHER EVENT THAT THERE IS IS REGIONAL
SUPPORT FOR HIGH ERC'S.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 8
PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-
027>029-041-042.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5
PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ013-014-027>029-
041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 8
PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...TRIGG
FIRE WEATHER...TRIGG
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