237
FXUS63 KGLD 172302
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
402 PM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY. EVEN IF NOT
IN THE WARNING STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST.
- POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. RED
FLAG AND PARTICULAR DANGEROUS SITUATION (PDS) RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND WINDS GUSTING
OVER 60 MPH WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE
FIRE GROWTH.
- BLOWING DUST WILL LIKELY REDUCE AIR QUALITY IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS ON TUESDAY. LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO
DUST PLUMES MAY ALSO HINDER TRAVEL.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS IN NORTHWEST KANSAS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT INTO NEBRASKA THIS EVENING TAKING
THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH IT. GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, THEN BECOME LIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES TOWARDS 06Z. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. TOMORROW, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN A SIMILAR, YET NOT
QUITE AS EXTREME AS TODAY, SCENARIO. THE ACCOMPANYING 500 MB JET
STREAK WILL BE AROUND 85 KTS (COMPARED TO 120 KT JET TODAY),
WITH THE STRONGEST PART OF THE JET OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. STILL,
AS MIXING COMMENCES IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
SOME OF THOSE STRONGER WINDS WILL BEGIN REACHING THE SURFACE.
EXPECTING PEAK GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE, HIGHEST IN
COLORADO, WHICH WILL OVERLAY AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
MINIMUMS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS GENERALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WRAY, COLORADO, TO RUSSELL SPRINGS AND
LEOTI, KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
TOMORROW NIGHT, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AND THEN MOVE EAST ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW, THEN CHANGING TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WHILE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL,
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. HRRR
SHOWING GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE BETWEEN 09-12Z
IMMEDIATELY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CARVED OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 40S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS, WHICH IS AROUND 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW DURING THAT TIME AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH
THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS. WRAPAROUND LIGHT SNOW MAY CONTINUE
THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, MAINLY IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES SHOW SNOW
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH WITH BOTH SYSTEMS.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY (MID 40S),
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY (UPPER 40S TO MID 50S) AND ABOVE
NORMAL ON TUESDAY (60S). LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S. MAY
HAVE TO START WATCHING FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING ON
TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS DROPPING INTO
THE TEENS AND AN UPPER JET STREAK IN THE VICINITY WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY MIX DOWN GUSTY WINDS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 355 PM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO LLWS FROM THE WEST AT
40-50 KTS AROUND 300-500 FEET AGL. THERE IS A CHANCE KGLD AND
KMCK COULD SEE SOME BLOWING DUST BETWEEN 0-2Z AS THE REMAINDER
OF THE STRONG WINDS TAPER OFF.
TOMORROW COULD SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR KGLD, BUT KMCK
SHOULD TOP OUT NO MORE THAN 25 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 239 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER DAY FOR THE AREA TODAY. PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAS BEEN
DESIGNATED A PARTICULAR DANGEROUS SITUATION (PDS) WORDING FOR
THEIR RED FLAG WARNING PRODUCT. THIS IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST AT LEAST IN SOME OVERLAP OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS,
VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND THE DRIEST OF FUELS.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
LEADING TO DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN AND AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY VALUES MAXING OUT
AROUND 50% ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT IS
FORECAST TO BE SET FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE AND QUICK MOVING
WILD FIRES IS FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40-50 MPH AND
WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 55-65 MPH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO FALL AT LEAST INTO THE
LOWER TEENS PERHAPS AS LOW AS THE MID SINGLE DIGITS.
WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20-30 MPH THROUGH AROUND
8-9AM MT BEFORE QUICKLY RAMPING UP BETWEEN 9-10AM WHERE GUSTS OF
50-65 MPH ARE FORECAST ALONG WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40-50
MPH. WINDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON SUSTAINED WINDS MAY WEAKEN SOME TO AROUND 30-40
MPH WITH 60 MPH GUSTS PERHAPS A BIT MORE SPORADIC AS ANY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE FROM INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS TO
AROUND 10000 FEET AGL. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
SHIFT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION
ALONG WITH VERY LOW DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS HELPING KEEP
HUMIDITY VALUES LOW. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF
DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. BREEZY TO GUSTY
WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
WANING AROUND 11PM MT. BE AWARE FOR BLOWING DUST AND LOCALIZED
DUST STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING WHICH
COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOSES/WATER FREEZING UP SHOULD ANY
FIRES STILL BE ONGOING.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH TO ALMOST A NEAR CERTAINTY IN NUMEROUS
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OCCURRING ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN OTHER THAN THE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES IS THE DURATION OF THE SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER
THAN 30 MPH AND BEING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH AT TIMES. THIS ALONG
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND THE LOW HUMIDITY IS THE
SIGNAL FOR NUMEROUS HOURS OF EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX
AND FORECAST VALUES EXCEEDING 100. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST PANS
OUT THEN LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO COULD SEE AROUND 8
HOURS OF EXTREME VALUES.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD HUMIDITY VALUES
MAXING OUT AROUND 45-50% WOULD PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ARE CURRENTLY
FAVORED FOR MULTIPLE HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AGAIN AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST UP TO 45 MPH. 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 10% AND THEN FALL BELOW
10% INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH SUGGESTS VERY DRY FUELS. REGIONAL ERC
VALUES ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL INTERAGENCY COORDINATION CENTER
FOR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO CLIMB TO IN BETWEEN 40 AND 50 WHEREAS THE 90TH PERCENTILE IS
LOCATED AT 50. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA CURRENTLY HAS ERC'S IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE ACCORDING TO
THE SAME SITE. THIS ALSO DOES BRING CONCERN TO THE UPPER END
POTENTIAL OF THIS FIRE WEATHER EVENT THAT THERE IS IS REGIONAL
SUPPORT FOR HIGH ERC'S.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...BLOWING DUST WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001-013-014-027>029-041-042.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-013-027-028-041-042.
CO...BLOWING DUST WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.
NE...BLOWING DUST WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...CA
FIRE WEATHER...TRIGG
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