134
FXUS63 KGLD 180509
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1009 PM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS IN NORTHWEST KANSAS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 803 PM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
TODAY'S RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AS
WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND HUMIDITY IS SLOWLY INCREASING ABOVE
20%. REMAIN AWARE THAT MEAGER HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS FORECAST
ACROSS NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE
LOW 50S TO UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT INTO NEBRASKA THIS EVENING TAKING
THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH IT. GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, THEN BECOME LIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES TOWARDS 06Z. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. TOMORROW, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN A SIMILAR, YET NOT
QUITE AS EXTREME AS TODAY, SCENARIO. THE ACCOMPANYING 500 MB JET
STREAK WILL BE AROUND 85 KTS (COMPARED TO 120 KT JET TODAY),
WITH THE STRONGEST PART OF THE JET OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. STILL,
AS MIXING COMMENCES IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
SOME OF THOSE STRONGER WINDS WILL BEGIN REACHING THE SURFACE.
EXPECTING PEAK GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE, HIGHEST IN
COLORADO, WHICH WILL OVERLAY AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
MINIMUMS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS GENERALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WRAY, COLORADO, TO RUSSELL SPRINGS AND
LEOTI, KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
TOMORROW NIGHT, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AND THEN MOVE EAST ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW, THEN CHANGING TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WHILE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL,
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. HRRR
SHOWING GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE BETWEEN 09-12Z
IMMEDIATELY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CARVED OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 40S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS, WHICH IS AROUND 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW DURING THAT TIME AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH
THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS. WRAPAROUND LIGHT SNOW MAY CONTINUE
THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, MAINLY IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES SHOW SNOW
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH WITH BOTH SYSTEMS.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY (MID 40S),
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY (UPPER 40S TO MID 50S) AND ABOVE
NORMAL ON TUESDAY (60S). LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S. MAY
HAVE TO START WATCHING FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING ON
TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS DROPPING INTO
THE TEENS AND AN UPPER JET STREAK IN THE VICINITY WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY MIX DOWN GUSTY WINDS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1006 PM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
BREEZY WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING AT MCK BUT ARE FORECAST TO WANE
AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. AS FOR GLD WINDS HAVE ALREADY DECREASED
LEADING TO LLWS BEING A CONCERN, THIS WILL THEN BECOME A CONCERN
FOR MCK AS THE WINDS DECREASE. GLD COULD SEE SOME VERY ROGUE
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS BUT THINK THE OVERALL THREAT IS NOT WORTHY
OF A TEMPO AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH BREEZY WINDS RETURNING TO EACH TERMINAL AS
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION BREAKS IN THE MID MORNING. BE AWARE JUST
AFTER THIS PERIOD OF A COLD FRONT WITH STRONG WINDS AND WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM
CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ253-
254.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...TRIGG
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