139
FXUS63 KGLD 180737
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1237 AM MST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING FOR COUNTIES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND KIT
CARSON COUNTY FROM 11A-5P MT. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35-45
MPH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
- MODEST COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAY BRING WIND GUSTS
AROUND 45 MPH. LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR AS WELL BUT WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
- MORE LIKE FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS.
- MORE SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION AGAIN
FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MST WED FEB 18 2026
OUR STORM SYSTEM TODAY CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH
GRADUALLY DECLINING WINDS. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL SEE
WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS THROUGH 4AM CT HOWEVER. COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA LEADING TO FALLING
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY AS WINDS WANE. WITH DEW POINTS SO LOW
IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S SOME SITES MAY FALL RATHER QUICKLY. SOME
VIRGA SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW
MAY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT NO
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS.
EARLY MORNING WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT AGAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH IS FORECAST TO HELP MODERATE THE FALLING TEMPERATURES. THIS IS
DUE TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOUTH OVER
THE PAST FEW RUNS ACCORDING TO EMWF ENSEMBLES AND GEFS ALONG WITH
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH LOCATION OF IT ROUGHLY ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN YUMA INTO SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. ECMWF-AIFS
HAS SOME EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OUTLIER SOLUTIONS WHICH IF WERE TO
COME TO FRUITION COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WIND FORECAST AND
THE NEW RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE DAY. PORTIONS OF THE INHERITED
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH
THE EXCEPTIONS OF YUMA, CHEYENNE (KS) AND SHERMAN COUNTIES.
THOSE 3 COUNTIES WERE REMOVED DUE TO THE SOUTHERN SHIFT SEEN
WITH THE LOW AND THE STRONGEST WINDS. IF THE LOW DOES SET UP
FURTHER NORTH THEN SOME OF THOSE COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
INTO THE RED FLAG WARNING BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS AROUND 40%
CURRENTLY. NOT SAYING THAT CRITICAL CONDITIONS WON'T HAPPEN
ESPECIALLY IN SHERMAN COUNTY BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS
FOR SURE LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN MULTIPLE HOURS OCCURRING. STRONG
WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO AND GREELEY COUNTIES. I DID ADD GOVE
COUNTY INTO IT AS THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE HREF HAS 30 MPH WIND
GUSTS EXTENDING FURTHER EAST AND NEARLY ALL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THIS AS WELL. OVERALL NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING QUITE A DAY
LIKE WE HAD A TUESDAY BUT THE WARMTH, WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY FROM
YESTERDAY MAY HAVE CONTINUED TO FURTHER DRY OUT OTHER FUELS.
HIGHS FOR THE DAY ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WEST
TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE EAST. DO SEE AN INCREASE IN THE
700-500MB MOISTURE SO AM FORECASTING TO CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
WOULD BE SURPRISED IF ANY PRECIP EVEN SPRINKLES CAN REACH THE
SURFACE GIVEN THE LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SO WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAUSING THE WIND TOMORROW IS FORECAST TO
SCOOT ON EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND DEEPEN SOME.
ON THE BACK END OF IT COLDER WILL BE POOLING UP AND WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT.
3MB PRESSURE RISES WHEN THIS OCCURS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
STRONG WITH THE 00Z HRRR SHOWING AROUND 10MB, 00Z GFS AND 03Z
RAP AROUND 9MB. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE AS WELL TO AROUND 30-35 KNOTS WHICH IS FORECAST TO LEAD
TO STRONG WINDS WITH THE FRONT. AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME 50
KNOT WIND GUSTS AS WELL WITH THIS AS IS BEING SEEN ON THE MAX
WIND GUST ON THE 00Z HREF AND AT THE VERY TOP OF THE SHALLOW
MIXING LAYER WHICH MAY LEAD SOME VALIDITY OF THIS OCCURRING.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND
12Z OR SO WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE MORNING COMMUTES.
WITH THE FRONT SOME SNOW COULD OCCUR WITH IT AS WELL. CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED IN SNOW OCCURRING ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST AND USING THE
ABERDEEN BLOWING SNOW MODEL ASSUMING A SNOWFALL RATE OF AROUND
0.5 INCHES PER HOUR THERE MAY BE A 40-50% CHANCE FOR
VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO AROUND ONE HALF MILE AS SNOW IS FALLING.
BUMPING IT DOWN TO 0.25 INCHES PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES THAT
THREAT FALLS TO AROUND 10%. OVERALL MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
A COUPLE TENTHS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONES WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN
INCH FAVORING DUNDY, HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES.THERE
COULD BE SLIM CHANCE OF SNOW SQUALL CHARACTERISTICS WITH THE
SNOW WITH THE FRONT AS WELL AS THE 00Z NAM12 DOES SHOW A BIT
MORE CAPE AND ACTUALLY SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS OF 1-2 FAVORING
EASTERN COLORADO. CONFIDENCE IN A SNOW SQUALL IS AROUND 20% AT
THIS TIME. SOME ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DO ALSO SUGGEST A
SWATCH OF HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR AS WELL FOR
THOSE SAME COUNTIES. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH THAT ALSO DOES APPEAR TO BE THE SOURCE OF ADDITIONAL
LIFT BUT IS CURRENTLY FAVORED TO REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ON DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. GEFS MEAN SPREAD DOES SHOW IT IN THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY TO BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD
INCREASE THE RISK OF A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR
DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS OF THURSDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AROUND 15-20
MPH SUSTAINED WHICH IF THE SOUTHERN TRACK WERE TO OCCUR COULD
INCREASE BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS AS WELL. CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE
10-20% CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN TRACK OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO FEEL MORE LIKE MID
FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. IF CLOUD COVER CAN
REMAIN THICKER MORE THAN LIKELY WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM THEN TEMPERATURES COULD FALL ANOTHER 3-5 DEGREES.
THURSDAY NIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF -7 TO -11 MOVING INTO THE
AREA RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TEENS
AND WIND CHILLS FALLING AROUND ZERO.
FRIDAY A LULL IN PRECIPITATION AND WIND IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND INTO THE INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. FOCUS TURNS TO ANOTHER
DEVELOPING SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHICH IS FORECAST TO
EJECT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
AS WELL WITH THIS. WIND CURRENTLY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. THIS DOES AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CARVED OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 40S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS, WHICH IS AROUND 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW DURING THAT TIME AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH
THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS. WRAPAROUND LIGHT SNOW MAY CONTINUE
THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, MAINLY IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES SHOW SNOW
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH WITH BOTH SYSTEMS.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY (MID 40S),
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY (UPPER 40S TO MID 50S) AND ABOVE
NORMAL ON TUESDAY (60S). LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S. MAY
HAVE TO START WATCHING FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING ON
TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS DROPPING INTO
THE TEENS AND AN UPPER JET STREAK IN THE VICINITY WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY MIX DOWN GUSTY WINDS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1006 PM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
BREEZY WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING AT MCK BUT ARE FORECAST TO WANE
AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. AS FOR GLD WINDS HAVE ALREADY DECREASED
LEADING TO LLWS BEING A CONCERN, THIS WILL THEN BECOME A CONCERN
FOR MCK AS THE WINDS DECREASE. GLD COULD SEE SOME VERY ROGUE
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS BUT THINK THE OVERALL THREAT IS NOT WORTHY
OF A TEMPO AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH BREEZY WINDS RETURNING TO EACH TERMINAL AS
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION BREAKS IN THE MID MORNING. BE AWARE JUST
AFTER THIS PERIOD OF A COLD FRONT WITH STRONG WINDS AND WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5
PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...TRIGG
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