904
FXUS63 KGLD 181135
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
435 AM MST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING FOR COUNTIES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND KIT
CARSON COUNTY FROM 11A-5P MT. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35-45
MPH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
- MODEST COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAY BRING WIND GUSTS
AROUND 45 MPH. LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR AS WELL BUT WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
- MORE LIKE FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS.
- MORE SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATION AGAIN FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MST WED FEB 18 2026
OUR STORM SYSTEM TODAY CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH
GRADUALLY DECLINING WINDS. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL
SEE WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS THROUGH 4AM CT HOWEVER. COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA LEADING TO FALLING
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY AS WINDS WANE. WITH DEW POINTS SO LOW IN
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S SOME SITES MAY FALL RATHER QUICKLY. SOME
VIRGA SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW
MAY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT NO
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS.
EARLY MORNING WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT AGAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH IS FORECAST TO HELP MODERATE THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES. THIS IS DUE TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOUTH OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS ACCORDING TO
ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND GEFS ALONG WITH DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
LOCATION OF IT ROUGHLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN YUMA INTO SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY. ECMWF-AIFS HAS SOME EVEN FURTHER SOUTH
OUTLIER SOLUTIONS WHICH IF WERE TO COME TO FRUITION COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE WIND FORECAST AND THE NEW RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE DAY. PORTIONS OF THE INHERITED FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAVE BEEN
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF YUMA,
CHEYENNE (KS) AND SHERMAN COUNTIES. THOSE 3 COUNTIES WERE
REMOVED DUE TO THE SOUTHERN SHIFT SEEN WITH THE LOW AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS. IF THE LOW DOES SET UP FURTHER NORTH THEN SOME
OF THOSE COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED INTO THE RED FLAG WARNING
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS AROUND 40% CURRENTLY. NOT SAYING THAT
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WON'T HAPPEN ESPECIALLY IN SHERMAN COUNTY
BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS FOR SURE LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN
MULTIPLE HOURS OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO AND
GREELEY COUNTIES. I DID ADD GOVE COUNTY INTO IT AS THE LAST 2
RUNS OF THE HREF HAS 30 MPH WIND GUSTS EXTENDING FURTHER EAST
AND NEARLY ALL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. OVERALL NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING QUITE A DAY LIKE WE HAD A TUESDAY BUT THE
WARMTH, WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY FROM YESTERDAY MAY HAVE CONTINUED
TO FURTHER DRY OUT OTHER FUELS. HIGHS FOR THE DAY ARE FORECAST
IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WEST TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE EAST.
DO SEE AN INCREASE IN THE 700-500MB MOISTURE SO AM FORECASTING
TO CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WOULD BE SURPRISED IF ANY PRECIP EVEN
SPRINKLES CAN REACH THE SURFACE GIVEN THE LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS SO WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAUSING THE WIND TOMORROW IS FORECAST
TO SCOOT ON EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND DEEPEN
SOME. ON THE BACK END OF IT COLDER WILL BE POOLING UP AND WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT. 3MB PRESSURE RISES WHEN THIS OCCURS ARE FORECAST TO
BE FAIRLY STRONG WITH THE 00Z HRRR SHOWING AROUND 10MB, 00Z GFS
AND 03Z RAP AROUND 9MB. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE AS WELL TO AROUND 30-35 KNOTS WHICH IS FORECAST TO LEAD
TO STRONG WINDS WITH THE FRONT. AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME 50
KNOT WIND GUSTS AS WELL WITH THIS AS IS BEING SEEN ON THE MAX
WIND GUST ON THE 00Z HREF AND AT THE VERY TOP OF THE SHALLOW
MIXING LAYER WHICH MAY LEAD SOME VALIDITY OF THIS OCCURRING.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND
12Z OR SO WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE MORNING COMMUTES.
WITH THE FRONT SOME SNOW COULD OCCUR WITH IT AS WELL. CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED IN SNOW OCCURRING ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST AND USING THE
ABERDEEN BLOWING SNOW MODEL ASSUMING A SNOWFALL RATE OF AROUND
0.5 INCHES PER HOUR THERE MAY BE A 40-50% CHANCE FOR
VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO AROUND ONE HALF MILE AS SNOW IS FALLING.
BUMPING IT DOWN TO 0.25 INCHES PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES THAT
THREAT FALLS TO AROUND 10%. OVERALL MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
A COUPLE TENTHS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONES WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH
FAVORING DUNDY, HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES.THERE COULD BE
SLIM CHANCE OF SNOW SQUALL CHARACTERISTICS WITH THE SNOW WITH
THE FRONT AS WELL AS THE 00Z NAM12 DOES SHOW A BIT MORE CAPE AND
ACTUALLY SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS OF 1-2 FAVORING EASTERN
COLORADO. CONFIDENCE IN A SNOW SQUALL IS AROUND 20% AT THIS
TIME. SOME ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DO ALSO SUGGEST A SWATCH
OF HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR AS WELL FOR THOSE SAME
COUNTIES. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT ALSO
DOES APPEAR TO BE THE SOURCE OF ADDITIONAL LIFT BUT IS
CURRENTLY FAVORED TO REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. GEFS MEAN SPREAD DOES SHOW IT IN THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY TO BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD
INCREASE THE RISK OF A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR
DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS OF THURSDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AROUND 15-20
MPH SUSTAINED WHICH IF THE SOUTHERN TRACK WERE TO OCCUR COULD
INCREASE BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS AS WELL. CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE
10-20% CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN TRACK OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO FEEL MORE LIKE MID
FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. IF CLOUD COVER CAN
REMAIN THICKER MORE THAN LIKELY WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM THEN TEMPERATURES COULD FALL ANOTHER 3-5 DEGREES.
THURSDAY NIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF -7 TO -11 MOVING
INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE LOW TEENS AND WIND CHILLS FALLING AROUND ZERO.
FRIDAY A LULL IN PRECIPITATION AND WIND IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND INTO THE INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. FOCUS TURNS TO
ANOTHER DEVELOPING SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHICH IS
FORECAST TO EJECT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS WELL WITH THIS. WIND CURRENTLY DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. THIS DOES
AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST WED FEB 18 2026
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS (LATE THIS WEEK) WILL BE SUPPLANTED BY
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THIS WEEKEND, AND THAT A
TRANSITION TO A SPEEDY/ENERGETIC ZONAL (WESTERLY) FLOW PATTERN
WILL FOLLOW, EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS RISING FROM THE 40'S (SAT-SUN) TO 50'S (MON) AND 60'S
(TUE), WHEN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL, ONCE AGAIN, BE ON THE
TABLE. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A MODEST
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY, THOUGH.. THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE VARIES FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL (AS EARLY AS
TUE MORNING, AS LATE AS TUE EVENING).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED FEB 18 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
CEILINGS CONFINED TO CIRRUS ABOVE ~8,000 FT AGL. KGLD VELOCITY
DATA AT 1130Z THIS MORNING INDICATES WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE SURFACE TO 2,000 FT AGL. WNW TO WSW WINDS AT 8-12 KNOTS WILL
BACK TO THE S AND INCREASE TO ~15 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING.. ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE IN CO. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SW OR WSW AND INCREASE TO 15-25
KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. 10-15 KNOT S WINDS WILL
RETURN AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT (~06-08Z THU), AS THE LEE CYCLONE TRACKS EAST TOWARD
THE CO-KS-NE BORDER. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO
~25 KNOTS W/GUSTS TO ~35 KNOTS NEAR THE END OF THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE CYCLONE TRACKS ESE INTO
CENTRAL KS. A SHORT PERIOD OF STRONG NW WINDS (~25-35 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO ~45 KNOTS) IS POSSIBLE AN HOUR OR TWO ON EITHER SIDE
OF SUNRISE (~11-14Z THU).
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
CEILINGS CONFINED TO CIRRUS ABOVE ~10,000 FT AGL. SW WINDS AT
8-12 KNOTS WILL BACK TO THE S LATE THIS MORNING.. ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE IN CO. S TO SSW WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO ~15-20 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE ESE OR E AND DECREASE TO ~8-12 KNOTS AS THE
LEE CYCLONE TRACKS EAST TOWARD THE CO-KS-NE BORDER. LIGHT E
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.. AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE CYCLONE TRACKS ESE ACROSS NORTHWEST KS.
WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE NE OR NNE AND INCREASE TO 15-25
KNOTS NEAR THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.. AS THE LEE CYCLONE
PROGRESSES ESE INTO CENTRAL KS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5
PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...VINCENT
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