678
FXUS63 KGLD 181745
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING FOR COUNTIES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND KIT
CARSON COUNTY FROM 11A-5P MT. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35-45
MPH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
- MODEST COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAY BRING WIND GUSTS
AROUND 45 MPH. LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR AS WELL BUT WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
- MORE LIKE FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS.
- MORE SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATION AGAIN FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST WED FEB 18 2026
TODAY, WE'LL HAVE A LOW COMING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, LEADING TO
FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOME GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA, WEAKENING TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KTS
RANGE, INCREASING THE FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR TODAY. HOWEVER,
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 40, AND KIT CARSON COUNTY, ARE THE
ONLY PLACES THAT LOOK LIKELY (80%) TO DROP BELOW 15% RH FOR 3+ HOURS
TODAY. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THESE AREAS.
AS TYPICAL, THE STRONG WINDS WILL WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET, HOWEVER THEY
WILL PICK BACK UP LATER IN THE NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER AND OUT
OF THE CWA, PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW LOOK TO AVERAGE 2-4 MB PER
HOUR FROM 9-15Z. THIS WILL CAUSE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED
AROUND 20-25 KTS, FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 45 KTS. THIS COULD STOKE ANY SMOLDERING WILDFIRES, CAUSING
THEM TO FLARE UP.
THE STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO CAUSE FAIRLY EFFICIENT CAA TO
MOVE INTO THE CWA, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO LOW AND MID LEVEL
SATURATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. VERTICALLY STACKED AT 500 MB,
THE DRIVING TROUGH COMING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL INTRODUCE WIDESPREAD
VORTICITY, PROVIDING FORCING IN THE SATURATED AREA. THERE ARE SIGNS
OF WEAK CAPE ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 36 DURING THIS TIME.
CONSIDERING ALL OF THIS, WE ARE LOOKING AT A 30-50% CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 36 TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS TONIGHT BEFORE 7Z WOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. AFTER 7Z, THE P-TYPE WILL ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY BE SNOW AS THE LOW
LEVELS COOL TO BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW. HOWEVER, WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF QPF, LIKELY (80%) LEADING TO AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ON THE HIGH END OF THE QPF, THERE'S A 15% CHANCE A
SNOW SQUALL FORMS, CREATING SUDDEN WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND
PROMOTING HIGH SNOWFALL RATES. THIS COULD LEAD TO 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION WHERE CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL OCCURS. THE 5% HIGH-END
POTENTIAL FOR THE SNOW WOULD BE IF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH 50
MILES, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO 2-5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER RED WILLOW
COUNTY.
WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY WARMING TO AROUND 60, SURFACES WILL LIKELY
BE ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS, THEN DROP BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF REFREEZING ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR, LEADING TO BLACK ICE AND SLICK ROADS.
ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL BE LEAVING THE AREA AROUND 21Z
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND
NORTHERLY WINDS, WHICH LOOK TO REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS ALL DAY, WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA MAY WARM INTO THE LOW 40S SINCE THEY SEE SUNNIER SKIES
AND LESS DIRECT CAA.
A MILD RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT, ALLOWING THE SKY TO
CLEAR OUT. AT THE SURFACE, WE COULD SEE A HIGH MOVE OVER THE AREA
AFTER 6Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS CALM AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS. THERE'S A 30% CHANCE THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES SEE SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AND BRIEF WIND CHILLS
NEAR 0.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST WED FEB 18 2026
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS (LATE THIS WEEK) WILL BE SUPPLANTED BY
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THIS WEEKEND, AND THAT A
TRANSITION TO A SPEEDY/ENERGETIC ZONAL (WESTERLY) FLOW PATTERN
WILL FOLLOW, EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS RISING FROM THE 40'S (SAT-SUN) TO 50'S (MON) AND 60'S
(TUE), WHEN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL, ONCE AGAIN, BE ON THE
TABLE. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A MODEST
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY, THOUGH.. THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE VARIES FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL (AS EARLY AS
TUE MORNING, AS LATE AS TUE EVENING).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST WED FEB 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
THROUGH THE DAY AND MOST OF THE NIGHT. KMCK COULD GET SOME SNOW
AND MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 6Z. OTHERWISE, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
BIG THING. GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND RETURNING
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...CA
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