379
FXUS63 KGLD 190003
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
503 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODEST COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAY BRING WIND GUSTS
AROUND 45 MPH. LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR AS WELL BUT WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
- A POTENTIAL WINTER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
MORNING UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 502 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
RED FLAG WARNING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR TODAY AS WINDS DIMINISH
AND HUMIDITY RECOVERS FROM AFTERNOON MINIMUMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST WED FEB 18 2026
TODAY, WE'LL HAVE A LOW COMING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, LEADING TO
FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOME GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA, WEAKENING TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KTS
RANGE, INCREASING THE FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR TODAY. HOWEVER,
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 40, AND KIT CARSON COUNTY, ARE THE
ONLY PLACES THAT LOOK LIKELY (80%) TO DROP BELOW 15% RH FOR 3+ HOURS
TODAY. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THESE AREAS.
AS TYPICAL, THE STRONG WINDS WILL WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET, HOWEVER THEY
WILL PICK BACK UP LATER IN THE NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER AND OUT
OF THE CWA, PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW LOOK TO AVERAGE 2-4 MB PER
HOUR FROM 9-15Z. THIS WILL CAUSE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED
AROUND 20-25 KTS, FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 45 KTS. THIS COULD STOKE ANY SMOLDERING WILDFIRES, CAUSING
THEM TO FLARE UP.
THE STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO CAUSE FAIRLY EFFICIENT CAA TO
MOVE INTO THE CWA, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO LOW AND MID LEVEL
SATURATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. VERTICALLY STACKED AT 500 MB,
THE DRIVING TROUGH COMING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL INTRODUCE WIDESPREAD
VORTICITY, PROVIDING FORCING IN THE SATURATED AREA. THERE ARE SIGNS
OF WEAK CAPE ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 36 DURING THIS TIME.
CONSIDERING ALL OF THIS, WE ARE LOOKING AT A 30-50% CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 36 TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS TONIGHT BEFORE 7Z WOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. AFTER 7Z, THE P-TYPE WILL ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY BE SNOW AS THE LOW
LEVELS COOL TO BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW. HOWEVER, WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF QPF, LIKELY (80%) LEADING TO AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ON THE HIGH END OF THE QPF, THERE'S A 15% CHANCE A
SNOW SQUALL FORMS, CREATING SUDDEN WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND
PROMOTING HIGH SNOWFALL RATES. THIS COULD LEAD TO 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION WHERE CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL OCCURS. THE 5% HIGH-END
POTENTIAL FOR THE SNOW WOULD BE IF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH 50
MILES, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO 2-5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER RED WILLOW
COUNTY.
WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY WARMING TO AROUND 60, SURFACES WILL LIKELY
BE ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS, THEN DROP BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF REFREEZING ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR, LEADING TO BLACK ICE AND SLICK ROADS.
ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL BE LEAVING THE AREA AROUND 21Z
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND
NORTHERLY WINDS, WHICH LOOK TO REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS ALL DAY, WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA MAY WARM INTO THE LOW 40S SINCE THEY SEE SUNNIER SKIES
AND LESS DIRECT CAA.
A MILD RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT, ALLOWING THE SKY TO
CLEAR OUT. AT THE SURFACE, WE COULD SEE A HIGH MOVE OVER THE AREA
AFTER 6Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS CALM AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS. THERE'S A 30% CHANCE THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES SEE SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AND BRIEF WIND CHILLS
NEAR 0.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 148 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. COLDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
FORECAST IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO
BE IN A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A WEAK TROUGH WEST OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. AS THIS TROUGH TRAVERSES TOWARDS OUR REGION, WE START TO
SEE AN INCREASE IN PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS). POPS FRIDAY
MORNING RANGE FROM 20-25% FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 50% FOR THE ENTIRE CWA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW IS THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THIS
SYSTEM BASED ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND WINDS FROM THE EAST
ADVECTING COOLER AIR TOWARDS OUR REGION.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR OUR COLORADO
COUNTIES WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME
INSTANCES OF BLOWING SNOW IF ENOUGH SNOW HAS HAD A CHANCE TO FALL BY
THE TIME PEAK WIND GUSTS OCCUR. POPS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM EXITS OUR REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MINIMAL FROM THIS SYSTEM.
NBM PROBABILITIES OF SNOWFALL GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES RANGE FROM 10-
30%, WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA ON THE HIGHER END. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WIND CHILLS IN THE
NEGATIVES ARE POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY, OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO BE IN A PREDOMINATELY ZONAL
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER 40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
AS THE BUILDING RIDGE PROPAGATES TOWARDS OUR CWA, THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS FOR TUESDAY ARE
FORECAST IN THE LOW 60S TO HIGH 70S. FIRE WEATHER MAY A CONCERN
TUESDAY WITH CURRENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES FORECAST IN
THE TEENS FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FIRE
WEATHER CRITICALITY CURRENTLY GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THIS IS AND THE
RESPONSE TO THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL EVENT OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 415 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TONIGHT,
ACCOMPANIED BY SHIFTING AND INCREASING WINDS. THOSE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED AT
KGLD IN THE MORNING, WHILE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND IFR
CEILINGS IS EXPECTED AT KMCK AT THAT TIME. SNOW SHOULD END AT
KMCK BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST, WHILE
CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT KGLD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO
30 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT BOTH TERMINALS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...024
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