070
FXUS63 KGLD 190818
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
118 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODEST COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAY BRING WIND GUSTS
AROUND 45 MPH. LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR AS WELL BUT WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
- A POTENTIAL WINTER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
MORNING UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST WED FEB 18 2026
TODAY, WE'LL HAVE A LOW COMING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES,
LEADING TO FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA,
WEAKENING TO THE NORTH AND WEST. MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE
GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KTS RANGE, INCREASING THE FIRE WEATHER RISK
FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 40, AND
KIT CARSON COUNTY, ARE THE ONLY PLACES THAT LOOK LIKELY (80%) TO
DROP BELOW 15% RH FOR 3+ HOURS TODAY. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE AREAS.
AS TYPICAL, THE STRONG WINDS WILL WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET, HOWEVER
THEY WILL PICK BACK UP LATER IN THE NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES
OVER AND OUT OF THE CWA, PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW LOOK TO
AVERAGE 2-4 MB PER HOUR FROM 9-15Z. THIS WILL CAUSE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED AROUND 20-25 KTS, FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS. THIS COULD
STOKE ANY SMOLDERING WILDFIRES, CAUSING THEM TO FLARE UP.
THE STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO CAUSE FAIRLY EFFICIENT
CAA TO MOVE INTO THE CWA, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO LOW AND MID
LEVEL SATURATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. VERTICALLY STACKED AT
500 MB, THE DRIVING TROUGH COMING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
INTRODUCE WIDESPREAD VORTICITY, PROVIDING FORCING IN THE
SATURATED AREA. THERE ARE SIGNS OF WEAK CAPE ALONG AND NORTH OF
U.S. 36 DURING THIS TIME. CONSIDERING ALL OF THIS, WE ARE
LOOKING AT A 30-50% CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF
U.S. 36 TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS TONIGHT BEFORE 7Z WOULD BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. AFTER 7Z, THE P-TYPE WILL ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY BE
SNOW AS THE LOW LEVELS COOL TO BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW. HOWEVER, WE ARE STILL
LOOKING AT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF, LIKELY (80%) LEADING TO AN
INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. ON THE HIGH END OF THE QPF,
THERE'S A 15% CHANCE A SNOW SQUALL FORMS, CREATING SUDDEN WHITE-
OUT CONDITIONS AND PROMOTING HIGH SNOWFALL RATES. THIS COULD
LEAD TO 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WHERE CONVECTIVE
SNOWFALL OCCURS. THE 5% HIGH-END POTENTIAL FOR THE SNOW WOULD BE
IF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH 50 MILES, POTENTIALLY LEADING
TO 2-5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER RED WILLOW COUNTY.
WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY WARMING TO AROUND 60, SURFACES WILL
LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS, THEN
DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
REFREEZING ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR, LEADING TO BLACK
ICE AND SLICK ROADS.
ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL BE LEAVING THE AREA AROUND 21Z
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND
NORTHERLY WINDS, WHICH LOOK TO REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS ALL DAY, WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA MAY WARM INTO THE LOW 40S SINCE THEY SEE SUNNIER
SKIES AND LESS DIRECT CAA.
A MILD RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT, ALLOWING THE SKY
TO CLEAR OUT. AT THE SURFACE, WE COULD SEE A HIGH MOVE OVER THE
AREA AFTER 6Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS CALM AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS. THERE'S A 30% CHANCE
THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES SEE SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AND
BRIEF WIND CHILLS NEAR 0.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A PRONOUNCED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.. AND THAT A TRANSITION
TO A SPEEDY/ENERGETIC ZONAL (WESTERLY) FLOW PATTERN WILL FOLLOW,
BY MID-WEEK. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND, WITH
HIGHS RISING FROM THE 40'S (SUN) AND 50'S (MON) TO LOWER 70'S
(TUE).. WHEN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A COOLING TREND IN THE
WAKE OF A MODEST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY MID-WEEK. RECENT (00Z
02/19) OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE TUE NIGHT OR
WED MORNING, ~12-18 HOURS LATER THAN YESTERDAY'S (00Z 02/18)
GUIDANCE. AT THIS RANGE, FURTHER DETAILS / FORECAST SPECIFICS
CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED WITH CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS ALREADY IMPACTED MCK
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST, THIS IS FORECAST TO
IMPACT GLD BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS. SOME SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES FOR EACH TERMINAL. SNOW MAY LINGER AT MCK
THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO REDUCED CEILING LESS THAN 009'.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...TRIGG
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