088
FXUS63 KGLD 190907
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
207 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODEST COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAY BRING WIND GUSTS
AROUND 45 MPH. LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR AS WELL BUT WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
- 40% CHANCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF VISIBILITIES FALLING TO ONE
HALF MILE OR LESS DUE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AND FALLING SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF YUMA, DUNDY, HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW
COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
- A POTENTIAL WINTER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
MORNING UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 203 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS AS A MODEST COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND SNOW
POTENTIAL AS WELL FAVORING THE NORTH. STARTING WITH THE WIND, STOUT
PRESSURES HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN SEEN ON ALL GUIDANCE WITH 1 HR
PRESSURE RISES RANGING FROM 5-7MB AND 3 HR PRESSURE RISE FROM 9-
11MB. THIS LOOKS TO FAVOR A CORRIDOR FROM ROUGHLY YUMA DOWN THROUGH
RUSSELL SPRINGS STARTING ROUGHLY AROUND 09Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH 15Z OR SO. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW STRONG WILL THE WIND
GUSTS BE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH BUT THE 00Z
HREF MAX WIND GUSTS HAS SPLOTCHY GUSTS OF 60 MPH FAVORING KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY SUGGEST 40
KNOT WINDS IN THE 850- 800MB WHICH IS WHERE MIXING SHOULD
PRIMARILY OCCUR GIVEN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND NOCTURNAL
INVERSION IN PLACE; CONFIDENCE IN 60+ MPH WIND GUSTS IS AROUND
5-10% OF OCCURRING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP SUPPORT THE 40
KNOT WINDS MIX DOWN LEADING TO A PERIOD OF HIGH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE BIGGEST ISSUE AT HAND STILL IS IF SNOW
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND THE WIND AND IF SO WHAT THE SNOW
RATE WILL BE. IF SNOW CAN ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THEN A PERIOD OF
BLOWING SNOW OR EVEN SNOW SQUALL-ESPUE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHERN YUMA, KIT CARSON AND PERHAPS SPREADING INTO
SHERMAN AND WALLACE COUNTY. 06Z RAP CROSS SECTIONS SHOW AROUND
-8 MICROBARS OF LIFT AROUND 775MB BUT DRY SHALLOW AIR CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE. THE STRONGEST OMEGA WITH THE FRONT AT LEAST
ACCORDING TO THE 06Z RAP OCCURS IN THE -8 TO -10C RANGE AT 11Z
WHICH IS FLIRTING ROUGHLY WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS
COULD BE WHY CAM OUTPUTS MAY NOT BE SHOWING ANY SNOW MOVING
WITH THE FRONT. WITH IT SO CLOSE, I'M NOT FULLY TRUSTING CAM
OUTPUT THAT A BAND OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT WILL NOT OCCUR BUT
SEEING THE REASONING AS TO WHY IN CROSS SECTIONS WILL KEEP MY
CONFIDENCE DOWN AROUND 20-30% IN THIS OCCURRING. IF IT DOES
OCCUR THEN BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS OF 50-55
MPH MAY OCCUR. A CLASSIC LOW CONFIDENCE BUT HIGH IMPACT
SCENARIO IS IN PLAY THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER HOWEVER IN LIGHT SNOW OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY.
SATURATION AND LESSENING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ALONG WITH LOWERING
OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL HELP THE SNOW FALL OCCUR ALONG
WITH SOME FAIRLY STOUT 700MB AND 500MB VORT MAXES PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LIFT THROUGH 18Z OR SO. SNOW IS FORECAST TO FULLY MOVE
OUT OF NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z AS FINAL BUT
WEAKER LOBE OF VORTICITY MOVES THROUGH. AS FOR AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.5
TO 1 INCH OF SNOW IS FORECAST MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34
FROM YUMA TO BARTLEY. GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAS SHIFTED THE
HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
FROM LAST NIGHT RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF DUNDY, HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW TO HAVE 10-20%
CHANCE OF SEEING AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THIS IS THE ONLY ENSEMBLE THAT IS SHOWING THIS AS THE
ECWMF, ECMWF AI AND HREF DO NOT SHOW THIS. METEORGRAM PLUMES
ACROSS ALL OTHER VARIOUS GUIDANCE ALL SUGGESTS GENERALLY AROUND
0.5-1.5 INCHES AT KMCK AND KIML WHICH DOES FURTHER INCREASE MY
CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL POTENTIAL IS
LOW. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR BLOWING SNOW AS WELL ACROSS
HIGHWAY 34 AS WELL DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. USING THE
ABERDEEN BLOWING SNOW MODEL BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST THERE IS A
30-40% CHANCE OF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS SNOW IS FALLING AS
SNOW RATIOS FALL TO AROUND 18-20:1 LEADING TO MORE OF A DRIER
SNOW. CURRENT FORECAST HAS AROUND 17-21 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS
WHICH ASSUMING A 0.5 INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATE WOULD SUPPORT UP TO
50% CHANCE OF VISIBILITIES AROUND ONE HALF MILE OR LESS. SOME
RECENT GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO SUGGEST POCKETS OF THAT MAGNITUDE
FROM AROUND 12-14Z THIS MORNING. WITH THIS DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS
FOR SOME IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE AND RURAL BUS ROUTES AS
WELL. CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THESE
CONDITIONS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A ADVISORY FOR THIS
POTENTIAL IMPACT AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
COVERAGE OF THE SNOW RATES AND THE DURATION.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA. BUT AT LEAST IT WILL FILL MORE LIKE FEBRUARY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH TO STRUGGLING TO GET TO
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH. SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR AND WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH PUSHES IN
FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL THESE
CONDITIONS LAST WE START TO ADVECT IN SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM OUR NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT US FRIDAY. IF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS STRONGER OR LASTS LONGER THEN LOW TEMPERATURES MAY
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY.
A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO
BE THE ZONE WHERE SOME PRECIPITATION SHOULD FORM DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO SOME BREEZY
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME DISCREPANCIES ON HOW FAR NORTH IT
DOES GO BEFORE PRECIPITATION STARTS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS AN
ALL SNOW SOLUTION BUT IF THE FRONT DOES PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY BE MORE REALISTIC. CONTINUE TO
LEAN TOWARDS A LIGHT SNOW AS OMEGA DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY
STRONG AT THIS TIME WITH A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES BEING THE CURRENT EXPECTATIONS. THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK TO
BE FAIRLY QUICK MOVING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY, CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE TRANQUIL AS RIDGING
RETURNS TO OVER THE ROCKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IMPACTING THE
REGION. AM SEEING A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BE
A TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
UNFORTUNATELY COULD SEE SOME APPROACHING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS A 25 KNOT 850MB JET WITHIN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
FOR THE DAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA AT THIS TIME BUT MAY DEPEND ON IF THE RIDGE CAN BROADEN
SOME WHICH COULD INCREASE TEMPERATURES BUT LOWER THE WIND
THREAT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A PRONOUNCED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.. AND THAT A TRANSITION
TO A SPEEDY/ENERGETIC ZONAL (WESTERLY) FLOW PATTERN WILL FOLLOW,
BY MID-WEEK. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND, WITH
HIGHS RISING FROM THE 40'S (SUN) AND 50'S (MON) TO LOWER 70'S
(TUE).. WHEN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A COOLING TREND IN THE
WAKE OF A MODEST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY MID-WEEK. RECENT (00Z
02/19) OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE TUE NIGHT OR
WED MORNING, ~12-18 HOURS LATER THAN YESTERDAY'S (00Z 02/18)
GUIDANCE. AT THIS RANGE, FURTHER DETAILS / FORECAST SPECIFICS
CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED WITH CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS ALREADY IMPACTED MCK
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST, THIS IS FORECAST TO
IMPACT GLD BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS. SOME SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES FOR EACH TERMINAL. SNOW MAY LINGER AT MCK
THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO REDUCED CEILING LESS THAN 009'.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...TRIGG
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