891
FXUS63 KGLD 041850
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1150 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY FOR KIT CARSON AND
CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN CO AND SHERMAN, WALLACE AND GREELEY
COUNTIES IN KANSAS.
- A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE, SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT: STRATUS AND FOG IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE LIFTED AND SCATTERED OUT. EXPECT
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S
AT ~10 MPH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH THU MORNING LOWS IN
THE 30'S.
THURSDAY: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY MOVING ASHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIG SE-SSE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
DURING THE DAY ON THU, THEN TRACK E ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS THU
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO
DURING THE DAY ON THU WILL REMAIN NEAR-STATIONARY AND GRADUALLY
DEEPEN THU NIGHT, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES
EAST ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS. S TO SSW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AS THE MSLP-850 MB
HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE. A SHARP, NORTH-SOUTH OR SSW-NNE
ORIENTED DRYLINE WILL EVOLVE IN VICINITY OF THE CO-KS BORDER
DURING THE DAY ON THU. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
W/REGARD TO THE EASTERN-MOST EXTENT OF THE DRYLINE. GIVEN THAT
THE LEE CYCLONE IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ANCHORED IN CO DURING THE
DAY, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR THE DRYLINE TO PROGRESS EAST OF HWY
27/HWY 25 PRIOR TO SUNSET. BREEZY SSW-SW WINDS AND VERY LOW RH
BEHIND THE DRYLINE MAY FOSTER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
IN EASTERN CO, WHERE THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK IN VICINITY
OF THE LOW, WIND GUSTS MAY STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 25 MPH, THOUGH..
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT ASSOC/W DEEP VERTICAL MIXING COULD
ASSIST TO SOME DEGREE (~25 KNOT FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER). IN WESTERN KS, WHERE RELATIVELY STRONGER (25-35 KNOT)
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT AND S TO SW WINDS WILL NO DOUBT
BE BREEZIER, THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE (AND CONSIDERABLY DRIER
AIRMASS) WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR W/REGARD TO WHETHER OR
NOT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED.
THURSDAY NIGHT: A CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE STORM WILL
EXIST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THU EVENING/NIGHT.
MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOC/W A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET -- BENEATH A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
(700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ~8 C/KM) -- WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL TO
MODERATE NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION (~1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE).
UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOC/W THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE (IN
VICINITY OF THE 4-CORNERS) WILL REMAIN WELL WEST/UPSTREAM OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA. AT PRESENT, IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT LOW-LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME A PRONOUNCED CAP IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS VIA CURRENT
AND RECENT RUNS OF HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT WITH
THIS LINE OF THINKING (I.E. NONE INDICATE APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE GOODLAND CWA). EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30'S (NORTHEAST CO) TO MID-UPPER 40'S (EAST OF HWY 283).
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
FRIDAY MORNING, A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST NEAR THE CENTRAL
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST WEST OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH A JET STREAK OVER OUR REGION. THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE JET BEING OVER OUR REGION WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FRIDAY. A MAJORITY OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) IS
LIKELY TO SEE RAIN BASED ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING. OUR COLORADO COUNTIES MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW FREEZING,
SO A WINTRY MIX MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO SUNRISE. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION (POPS) RANGE FROM 40-70% ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM KIT CARSON, CO TO INDIANOLA, NE. SOUTHEAST OF THAT
LINE, POPS GRADUALLY DROP TO 15% IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY RANGE FROM THE 40S TO 60S, WITH
THE NORTHWEST CWA ON THE LOWER END. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT FRIDAY. GUSTS FROM 25-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH OUR COLORADO COUNTIES BEING ON THE HIGHER END. OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WINDS WILL RETURN TO OUR TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN AND PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.
SATURDAY, WE REMAIN IN A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES
COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
MILD OVERALL, BUT GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH)
VALUES ARE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S FOR THE CWA. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF SOUTHWEST WINDS
FURTHER DRY CONDITIONS AND DROP RH VALUES LOWER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
A WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
IN THE 60S TO 70S. CURRENTLY, WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BE
RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE COLUMN AND NO JET STREAK IS OVERHEAD
OF OUR REGION. THIS SUPPORTS MILD SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE CWA WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH POSSIBLE. YUMA
COUNTY IS THE EXCEPTION WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS GUSTING
FROM 20-30 MPH FORECAST. RH VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE TEENS FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA, SO YUMA COUNTY WILL LIKELY HAVE A FEW HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WARM FURTHER MONDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 70S
TO 80S AS OUR REGION IS UNDER A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. RH VALUES REMAIN
IN THE TEENS FOR THE CWA, BUT WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY MILD FOR THE
REGION. GUSTS ARE FORECAST AROUND 20 MPH CURRENTLY. IF OUR UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ACTIVE OR THE LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
CHANGES TRACK, WE COULD SEE HIGHER WINDS INCREASING CONCERNS FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY, CONDITIONS COOL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. RH VALUES BEGIN TO
RECOVER FROM OUR PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS. RH VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE 20S. WINDS GUSTS FROM 20-30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE, SO FIRE WEATHER COULD BE A CONCERN IF RH VALUES DO NOT
RECOVER AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, BECOMING S TO SSE AT ~10 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. S TO SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS LATE THU MORNING, NEAR THE END
OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ013-027-041.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...VINCENT
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