748
FXUS63 KGLD 042316
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
415 PM MST WED MAR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY FOR KIT CARSON AND
CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN CO AND SHERMAN, WALLACE AND GREELEY
COUNTIES IN KANSAS.
- A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE, SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT: STRATUS AND FOG IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE LIFTED AND SCATTERED OUT. EXPECT
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S
AT ~10 MPH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH THU MORNING LOWS IN
THE 30'S.
THURSDAY: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY MOVING ASHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIG SE-SSE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
DURING THE DAY ON THU, THEN TRACK E ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS THU
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO
DURING THE DAY ON THU WILL REMAIN NEAR-STATIONARY AND GRADUALLY
DEEPEN THU NIGHT, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES
EAST ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS. S TO SSW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AS THE MSLP-850 MB
HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE. A SHARP, NORTH-SOUTH OR SSW-NNE
ORIENTED DRYLINE WILL EVOLVE IN VICINITY OF THE CO-KS BORDER
DURING THE DAY ON THU. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
W/REGARD TO THE EASTERN-MOST EXTENT OF THE DRYLINE. GIVEN THAT
THE LEE CYCLONE IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ANCHORED IN CO DURING THE
DAY, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR THE DRYLINE TO PROGRESS EAST OF HWY
27/HWY 25 PRIOR TO SUNSET. BREEZY SSW-SW WINDS AND VERY LOW RH
BEHIND THE DRYLINE MAY FOSTER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
IN EASTERN CO, WHERE THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK IN VICINITY
OF THE LOW, WIND GUSTS MAY STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 25 MPH, THOUGH..
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT ASSOC/W DEEP VERTICAL MIXING COULD
ASSIST TO SOME DEGREE (~25 KNOT FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER). IN WESTERN KS, WHERE RELATIVELY STRONGER (25-35 KNOT)
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT AND S TO SW WINDS WILL NO DOUBT
BE BREEZIER, THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE (AND CONSIDERABLY DRIER
AIRMASS) WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR W/REGARD TO WHETHER OR
NOT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED.
THURSDAY NIGHT: A CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE STORM WILL
EXIST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THU EVENING/NIGHT.
MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOC/W A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET -- BENEATH A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
(700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ~8 C/KM) -- WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL TO
MODERATE NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION (~1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE).
UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOC/W THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE (IN
VICINITY OF THE 4-CORNERS) WILL REMAIN WELL WEST/UPSTREAM OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA. AT PRESENT, IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT LOW-LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME A PRONOUNCED CAP IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS VIA CURRENT
AND RECENT RUNS OF HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT WITH
THIS LINE OF THINKING (I.E. NONE INDICATE APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE GOODLAND CWA). EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30'S (NORTHEAST CO) TO MID-UPPER 40'S (EAST OF HWY 283).
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST WED MAR 4 2026
A DEEP 500-MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
FRIDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MODEST 70-90 KT JET STREAK
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW LOOKS TO BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND BE OVERHEAD BY LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BE AS FAR EAST AS SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS. A DRYLINE LOOKS TO BE ATTACHED TO THIS SYSTEM,
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL LOW. CONSIDERING HOW FAR EAST
THE LOW IS FORECASTED TO BE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, A SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT IN OUR FORECAST REGION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS IMPROBABLE. NBM AND
LREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS ASSESSMENT, AS
EVEN 95TH PERCENTILE SOLUTIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. AS SUCH, THE
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORECAST REGION FRIDAY IS
LESS THAN 5%.
CONFIDENCE IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALSO
CONTINUES TO DECREASE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO ALREADY BE IN THE KANSAS-27
CORRIDOR BY LATE MORNING. LREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES ABOUT A
10% CHANCE OR LESS FOR MID-TEEN RH VALUES TO REACH PORTIONS OF
WICHITA COUNTY IN KANSAS, AND EVEN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR FAR WEST-
CENTRAL KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO. THE FAVORED SCENARIO, WITH AT
LEAST 70% CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME, IS INCREASINGLY COOLER CONDITIONS
UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 25 POTENTIALLY REACHING THE UPPER-50S TO MID-60S BEFORE
COOLING BEGINS. PRECIPITATION IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY BEHIND THE
FRONT. RAIN MAY BE FAVORED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO PORTIONS OF
THE EVENING, THOUGH A TRANSITION INTO SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX SEEMS
POSSIBLE, AS CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS THE MID TO
LATE-AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO, MIGRATING SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND NIGHT HOURS.
A SECLUDED, STATIONARY 500-MB LOW LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SATURDAY, WITH A HIGHLY
PERTURBED JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THE SECLUDED LOW ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
SYSTEMS IN THE JET STREAM COULD INFLUENCE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY. WARM, DRY CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
DURING THIS PERIOD, AS SURFACE WINDS ARE FAVORED TO BECOME WESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO MONDAY. SATURDAY
IS FORECAST TO HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER-50S, WITH RH VALUES IN
THE UPPER-TEENS TO LOWER-20S ACROSS THE CWA. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
IS NOT YET A MAJOR CONCERN FOR SATURDAY, AS NEITHER RH NOR WIND
GUSTS HAVE MET CRITERIA FOR THE HAZARD. SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE EVEN WARMER AND DRIER, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-60S TO
LOW-70S, AND MID TO UPPER-70S RESPECTIVELY, AND RH VALUES IN THE MID
TO UPPER-TEENS ACROSS THE CWA BOTH DAYS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAY
BE MORE OF A CONCERN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL, THOUGH NBM GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS WIND GUSTS STRUGGLING TO MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CRITERIA. EVEN 75TH PERCENTILE SCENARIOS FOR BOTH DAYS SHOW WIND
GUSTS REACHING CRITERIA ONLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO.
CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED EITHER DAY RESTS
AROUND 5-10%.
THE SECLUDED LOW MAY BEGIN TO BE ABSORBED BACK INTO THE JET STREAM
FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER, ONCE THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD AGAIN, PORTIONS OF
THE CWA MAY RECEIVE PRECIPITATION. RAIN, AND POTENTIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS, WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS AS
THIS TAKES PLACE. ADDITIONALLY, A COLD FRONT MAY COME THROUGH
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING OR NIGHT. IF THE STORM PRODUCING THE
PRECIPITATION CAN MIX WITH THE COLD FRONT AT JUST THE RIGHT TIME, WE
MAY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER TRANSITION TO SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOST PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO CLEAR UP BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH FORECAST HIGHS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER-40S AND LOW-
50S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 415 PM MST WED MAR 4 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. TOWARDS 10-12Z, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOW CEILINGS THROUGH
ABOUT 14-16Z. AFTER THAT TIME, A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED, THOUGH A
MODEST INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WILL
DEVELOP BY 16-18Z, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ013-027-041.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...024
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