848
FXUS63 KGLD 051005
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
305 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THE MORNING FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO 1/4 MILE AND SLICK PATCHES
MAY FORM FROM FREEZING FOG.
- A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES IN CO AND GREELEY COUNTY IN KANSAS. DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH
- A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 302 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
THIS MORNING, OUR NEXT 850 MB LOW COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
COMBINED WITH THE EXITING RIDGE, MOIST SOUTHERLY ADVECTION INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS IS OCCURRING AND WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE LATE
MORNING. AS OF 10Z, WE'RE SEEING SOME FOG MOVE INTO THE AREA.
REFS 25TH SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS THE BEST SO FAR. THIS SHOWS
THE FOG ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, AND POTENTIALLY INTO
THE CENTRAL CWA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXITS FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES, SO A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA
UNTIL 17Z.
TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN INTERESTING AND POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS DAY. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT
OF COLORADO, CREATING A DRYLINE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KS HIGHWAY 25
AND 27. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
WE'LL COVER THE DRY SECTOR FIRST. RH VALUES WILL TANK IN THE DRY
SECTOR, ESPECIALLY IN KIT CARSON, CHEYENNE, AND GREELEY COUNTIES
WHERE RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS. FOR EASTERN COLORADO,
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 23 KTS ARE EXPECTED. GREELEY COUNTY IS
FORECAST TO SEE WINDS AROUND 30 KTS AS THE DRYLINE WILL BE NEARBY.
WE'VE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THESE COUNTIES TO A RED FLAG WARNING,
AND SHERMAN AND WALLACE HAVE BEEN DROPPED FROM THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH BECAUSE THE CRITICAL WINDS AND RH DO NOT LOOK TO OCCUR AT THE
SAME TIME OR PLACE.
ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE DRYLINE, RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
ABOVE 20-40% AS SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST UP AROUND 25-35 KTS. WHILE
THERE IS EFFECTIVELY NO RISK OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THERE IS A 5%
CHANCE OF PLUMES OF BLOWING DUST. THE DUST THREAT IS VERY LIMITED
BECAUSE AREAS IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA, WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS, ARE ALSO FORECAST TO HAVE LAPSE
RATES THAT DO NOT SUPPORT DUST LOFTING. ANY DUST THAT GETS BLOWN
WOULD LIKELY BE CONFINED TO SOURCE REGIONS (I.E. BARE FIELDS).
THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MOST CAMS ARE SHOWING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. THIS SEEMS TO BE
LARGELY BASED ON A LACK OF GOOD FORCING. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A
30-50% CHANCE WE'LL HAVE ENOUGH FORCING FROM THE INCOMING 500 MB
TROUGH AND THE DRYLINE THAT WILL CAUSE CONVECTION TO INITIATE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA BETWEEN 22-3Z. 0-6Z WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME
SEVERE CONVECTION OCCURS. THE FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BE EXITING THE AREA AROUND 7-12Z AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS COULD FRONT WILL BRING IN ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION, BUT WITH NO SEVERE POTENTIAL. THIS WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO LINGER UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
AS FAR AS POTENTIAL HAZARDS GO FROM THE FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION,
HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT, WITH WINDS AS A SECONDARY, AND FLOODING IS
A MINOR CONCERN, BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT. RAP,
NAM, NAMNEST, AND REFS SOUNDING ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR, MAINLY DIFFERING
IN WHAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE, BUT WE'LL
BE FOCUSING ON REFS SOUNDINGS AS THEY'S A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND. AROUND
NORTON, KS AT 3Z, THERE IS A 750 MB CAP, CREATING ABOUT -50 J/KG OF
SURFACE CIN. HOWEVER, MLCAPE SITS AROUND 200 J/KG WITH CIN AROUND -
200, AND MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND CIN OF -120. THIS CERTAINLY
LOWERS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO FORM, BUT IF STORMS CAN FIRE,
THEY WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED STORMS, WITH A SLIM CHANCE FOR A STORM
TO BE CLOSE TO THE SURFACE. SHEAR IS IN AMPLE SUPPLY. EBWD, 0-1, AND
0-3 KM SHEAR AROUND 30-40 KTS.
WITH ALL THOSE PARAMETERS IN MIND, HAIL, IF IT DOES FORM, WOULD
LIKELY BE IN THE 0.75-1 INCH RANGE, BUT COULD BE UP TO 1.5 INCHES.
THE WIND THREAT IS NOT GREAT FOR DRY OR WET MICROBURSTS, AND IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY BETTER FOR A QLCS THREAT. EITHER WAY, MOST LIKELY WIND
THREAT WILL BE IN THE 30-45 KTS RANGE, WITH A MAXIMUM POTENTIAL UP
TO 50 KTS. THE FLOODING RISK WOULD REALLY ONLY OCCUR IF HIGH
PRECIPITATION CELLS ARE ABLE TO TRAIN OVER A LOCATION FOR 2+ HOURS,
WHICH HAS A 5% CHANCE OF OCCURRING. AS FAR AS THE TORNADO THREAT,
WHILE THE NUMERICAL PARAMETERS ARE BEING MET FOR A TORNADO, THE LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES KEEPS A LID ON THIS THREAT. AS IT STANDS, THERE IS
ROUGHLY A 5-15% CHANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING IN THE CWA
LATER TODAY.
THE SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
DAY FRIDAY, AND WILL MAINLY FALL AS RAIN. IN EASTERN COLORADO, THERE
IS A 20% CHANCE SOME SNOW OR A BRIEF WINTRY MIX OCCURS AROUND
SUNRISE. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-70 AND WILL BE EXITING THE CWA AROUND 0Z FRIDAY EVENING.
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG, WITH NORTHERLY
GUSTS AROUND 30-40 KTS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY FAIRLY COOL TOMORROW. IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA, HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S, BUT FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN CWA, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 60.
FRIDAY NIGHT, AS THE 500 MB LOW EXITS, A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE SKY TO START CLEARING OUT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST WED MAR 4 2026
A DEEP 500-MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
FRIDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MODEST 70-90 KT JET STREAK
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW LOOKS TO BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND BE OVERHEAD BY LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BE AS FAR EAST AS SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS. A DRYLINE LOOKS TO BE ATTACHED TO THIS SYSTEM,
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL LOW. CONSIDERING HOW FAR EAST
THE LOW IS FORECASTED TO BE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, A SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT IN OUR FORECAST REGION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS IMPROBABLE. NBM AND
LREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS ASSESSMENT, AS
EVEN 95TH PERCENTILE SOLUTIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING. AS SUCH, THE
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORECAST REGION FRIDAY IS
LESS THAN 5%.
CONFIDENCE IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALSO
CONTINUES TO DECREASE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO ALREADY BE IN THE KANSAS-27
CORRIDOR BY LATE MORNING. LREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES ABOUT A
10% CHANCE OR LESS FOR MID-TEEN RH VALUES TO REACH PORTIONS OF
WICHITA COUNTY IN KANSAS, AND EVEN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR FAR WEST-
CENTRAL KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO. THE FAVORED SCENARIO, WITH AT
LEAST 70% CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME, IS INCREASINGLY COOLER CONDITIONS
UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 25 POTENTIALLY REACHING THE UPPER-50S TO MID-60S BEFORE
COOLING BEGINS. PRECIPITATION IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY BEHIND THE
FRONT. RAIN MAY BE FAVORED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO PORTIONS OF
THE EVENING, THOUGH A TRANSITION INTO SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX SEEMS
POSSIBLE, AS CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS THE MID TO
LATE-AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO, MIGRATING SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND NIGHT HOURS.
A SECLUDED, STATIONARY 500-MB LOW LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SATURDAY, WITH A HIGHLY
PERTURBED JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THE SECLUDED LOW ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
SYSTEMS IN THE JET STREAM COULD INFLUENCE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY. WARM, DRY CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
DURING THIS PERIOD, AS SURFACE WINDS ARE FAVORED TO BECOME WESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO MONDAY. SATURDAY
IS FORECAST TO HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER-50S, WITH RH VALUES IN
THE UPPER-TEENS TO LOWER-20S ACROSS THE CWA. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
IS NOT YET A MAJOR CONCERN FOR SATURDAY, AS NEITHER RH NOR WIND
GUSTS HAVE MET CRITERIA FOR THE HAZARD. SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE EVEN WARMER AND DRIER, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-60S TO
LOW-70S, AND MID TO UPPER-70S RESPECTIVELY, AND RH VALUES IN THE MID
TO UPPER-TEENS ACROSS THE CWA BOTH DAYS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAY
BE MORE OF A CONCERN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL, THOUGH NBM GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS WIND GUSTS STRUGGLING TO MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CRITERIA. EVEN 75TH PERCENTILE SCENARIOS FOR BOTH DAYS SHOW WIND
GUSTS REACHING CRITERIA ONLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO.
CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED EITHER DAY RESTS
AROUND 5-10%.
THE SECLUDED LOW MAY BEGIN TO BE ABSORBED BACK INTO THE JET STREAM
FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER, ONCE THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD AGAIN, PORTIONS OF
THE CWA MAY RECEIVE PRECIPITATION. RAIN, AND POTENTIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS, WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS AS
THIS TAKES PLACE. ADDITIONALLY, A COLD FRONT MAY COME THROUGH
SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING OR NIGHT. IF THE STORM PRODUCING THE
PRECIPITATION CAN MIX WITH THE COLD FRONT AT JUST THE RIGHT TIME, WE
MAY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER TRANSITION TO SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOST PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO CLEAR UP BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH FORECAST HIGHS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER-40S AND LOW-
50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MST WED MAR 4 2026
AT KGLD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AT KGLD WILL
WAIVER BETWEEN 200-160. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE LLWS FROM 180
AT 30-40 KTS AROUND 400-600 FEET AGL OCCUR OVERNIGHT UNTIL ABOUT
16Z. AFTER THAT, STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE REACHING THE SURFACE.
AS IT STANDS, THE BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION TOMORROW LOOKS TO
REMAIN EAST AND NORTH OF KGLD, BUT THERE'S A 20% CHANCE SHOWERS
OR STORMS FORM NEAR THE AIRPORT AROUND 2-8Z TOMORROW NIGHT.
KMCK SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF ANY FOG AND STRATUS
TONIGHT. WE HAVE BEEN SEEING OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT THESE SHOULD BECOME EVEN LESS
FREQUENT AFTER 8Z. WHEN THESE GUSTS ARE NOT REACHING THE
SURFACE, LLWS FROM 180 AT 35 KTS AROUND 400-600 FEET AGL SHOULD
BE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 16Z WHEN THE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE
SURFACE AGAIN. STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY AT KMCK THAN KGLD, MAINLY
OCCURRING AFTER 0Z. EXPECT MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WITH THE
PRECIPITATION BY TOMORROW MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ041.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ004-015-
016-028-029-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...CA
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