157
FXUS63 KGLD 051634
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
934 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THE MORNING FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO 1/4 MILE AND SLICK PATCHES
MAY FORM FROM FREEZING FOG.
- A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES IN CO AND GREELEY COUNTY IN KANSAS. DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH
- A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IS POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 915 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED ~16 UTC. VISIBILITIES HAVE
RAPIDLY IMPROVED AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES.
TODAY: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SLOWLY TRACK E ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN
COLORADO TODAY, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EAST
TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS. S TO SSW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN KS-NE THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE MSLP-850
MB HEIGHT GRADIENT MODESTLY TIGHTENS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE. A SHARP, NORTH-SOUTH OR SSW-NNE
ORIENTED DRYLINE WILL EVOLVE IN VICINITY OF THE CO-KS BORDER.
WITH THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH LOCATED WELL UPSTREAM OF THE REGION
AND THE DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE LIKELY TO BE ANCHORED OVER CO..
EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT WITH REGARD TO
THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES (CO) AND GREELEY COUNTY, KS..
WHERE BREEZY SSW-SW WINDS AND VERY LOW RH BEHIND THE DRYLINE
WILL FOSTER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN EASTERN CO,
WHERE THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK IN VICINITY OF THE LOW,
WIND GUSTS MAY STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 25 MPH, THOUGH.. DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT ASSOC/W DEEP VERTICAL MIXING COULD ASSIST TO
SOME DEGREE (~25 KNOT FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER). IN
WESTERN KS, WHERE RELATIVELY STRONGER (25-35 KNOT) LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE PRESENT AND BREEZY S TO SW WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY,
THE LOCATION/EASTERN EXTENT OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE THE
DETERMINING FACTOR W/REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED.
TONIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
ADVECT RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH A PRONOUNCED
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ~8 C/KM) THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.. RESULTING IN MARGINAL TO MODERATE
NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION (~1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE) OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST KS. UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOC/W THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH (APPROACHING THE 4-CORNERS) WILL REMAIN WELL WEST/
UPSTREAM OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. VIRTUALLY ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT LOW-LEVEL FORCING, IN OF ITSELF, WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME A PRONOUNCED CAP IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS VIA CURRENT AND RECENT RUNS OF HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS LINE OF THINKING
(I.E. NONE INDICATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN OR NEAR THE
GOODLAND CWA). EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER-MID 30'S
(NORTHEAST CO) TO MID-UPPER 40'S (EAST OF HWY 283).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 302 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
THIS MORNING, OUR NEXT 850 MB LOW COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
COMBINED WITH THE EXITING RIDGE, MOIST SOUTHERLY ADVECTION INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS IS OCCURRING AND WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
LATE MORNING. AS OF 10Z, WE'RE SEEING SOME FOG MOVE INTO THE
AREA. REFS 25TH SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS THE BEST SO FAR. THIS
SHOWS THE FOG ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THE CENTRAL CWA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXITS FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, SO A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 17Z.
TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN INTERESTING AND POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS DAY. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT
OF COLORADO, CREATING A DRYLINE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KS HIGHWAY 25
AND 27. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
WE'LL COVER THE DRY SECTOR FIRST. RH VALUES WILL TANK IN THE
DRY SECTOR, ESPECIALLY IN KIT CARSON, CHEYENNE, AND GREELEY
COUNTIES WHERE RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS. FOR
EASTERN COLORADO, OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 23 KTS ARE EXPECTED.
GREELEY COUNTY IS FORECAST TO SEE WINDS AROUND 30 KTS AS THE
DRYLINE WILL BE NEARBY. WE'VE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THESE
COUNTIES TO A RED FLAG WARNING, AND SHERMAN AND WALLACE HAVE
BEEN DROPPED FROM THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH BECAUSE THE CRITICAL
WINDS AND RH DO NOT LOOK TO OCCUR AT THE SAME TIME OR PLACE.
ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE DRYLINE, RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE 20-40% AS SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST UP AROUND 25-35 KTS.
WHILE THERE IS EFFECTIVELY NO RISK OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
THERE IS A 5% CHANCE OF PLUMES OF BLOWING DUST. THE DUST THREAT
IS VERY LIMITED BECAUSE AREAS IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
CWA, WHICH ARE FORECAST TO SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS, ARE ALSO
FORECAST TO HAVE LAPSE RATES THAT DO NOT SUPPORT DUST LOFTING.
ANY DUST THAT GETS BLOWN WOULD LIKELY BE CONFINED TO SOURCE
REGIONS (I.E. BARE FIELDS).
THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST CAMS ARE SHOWING THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. THIS SEEMS
TO BE LARGELY BASED ON A LACK OF GOOD FORCING. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL A 30-50% CHANCE WE'LL HAVE ENOUGH FORCING FROM THE
INCOMING 500 MB TROUGH AND THE DRYLINE THAT WILL CAUSE
CONVECTION TO INITIATE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BETWEEN 22-3Z.
0-6Z WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME SEVERE CONVECTION OCCURS. THE
FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE EXITING THE AREA AROUND
7-12Z AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.
THIS COULD FRONT WILL BRING IN ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION, BUT
WITH NO SEVERE POTENTIAL. THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
LINGER UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
AS FAR AS POTENTIAL HAZARDS GO FROM THE FIRST WAVE OF
CONVECTION, HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT, WITH WINDS AS A SECONDARY,
AND FLOODING IS A MINOR CONCERN, BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
TORNADO THREAT. RAP, NAM, NAMNEST, AND REFS SOUNDING ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR, MAINLY DIFFERING IN WHAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE, BUT WE'LL BE FOCUSING ON REFS SOUNDINGS AS
THEY'S A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND. AROUND NORTON, KS AT 3Z, THERE IS
A 750 MB CAP, CREATING ABOUT -50 J/KG OF SURFACE CIN. HOWEVER,
MLCAPE SITS AROUND 200 J/KG WITH CIN AROUND - 200, AND MUCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG AND CIN OF -120. THIS CERTAINLY LOWERS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO FORM, BUT IF STORMS CAN FIRE, THEY WOULD
LIKELY BE ELEVATED STORMS, WITH A SLIM CHANCE FOR A STORM TO BE
CLOSE TO THE SURFACE. SHEAR IS IN AMPLE SUPPLY. EBWD, 0-1, AND
0-3 KM SHEAR AROUND 30-40 KTS.
WITH ALL THOSE PARAMETERS IN MIND, HAIL, IF IT DOES FORM, WOULD
LIKELY BE IN THE 0.75-1 INCH RANGE, BUT COULD BE UP TO 1.5
INCHES. THE WIND THREAT IS NOT GREAT FOR DRY OR WET MICROBURSTS,
AND IS ONLY SLIGHTLY BETTER FOR A QLCS THREAT. EITHER WAY, MOST
LIKELY WIND THREAT WILL BE IN THE 30-45 KTS RANGE, WITH A
MAXIMUM POTENTIAL UP TO 50 KTS. THE FLOODING RISK WOULD REALLY
ONLY OCCUR IF HIGH PRECIPITATION CELLS ARE ABLE TO TRAIN OVER A
LOCATION FOR 2+ HOURS, WHICH HAS A 5% CHANCE OF OCCURRING. AS
FAR AS THE TORNADO THREAT, WHILE THE NUMERICAL PARAMETERS ARE
BEING MET FOR A TORNADO, THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES KEEPS A LID
ON THIS THREAT. AS IT STANDS, THERE IS ROUGHLY A 5-15% CHANCE OF
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING IN THE CWA LATER TODAY.
THE SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE DAY FRIDAY, AND WILL MAINLY FALL AS RAIN. IN EASTERN
COLORADO, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE SOME SNOW OR A BRIEF WINTRY MIX
OCCURS AROUND SUNRISE. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 AND WILL BE EXITING THE CWA AROUND 0Z
FRIDAY EVENING.
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG, WITH
NORTHERLY GUSTS AROUND 30-40 KTS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY FAIRLY COOL TOMORROW. IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA, HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S, BUT FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
60.
FRIDAY NIGHT, AS THE 500 MB LOW EXITS, A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD
IN. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SKY TO START CLEARING OUT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
SATURDAY, WE REMAIN IN A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES
COOL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
MILD OVERALL, BUT GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH)
VALUES ARE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
(CWA). EVEN IF SOUTHWEST WINDS FURTHER LOWER RH VALUES, MILD
WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. NBM 75TH PERCENTILE FOR 10M WINDS ARE AROUND 25 MPH,
SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
A WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
IN THE 60S TO 70S. WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY
WEAK THROUGH THE COLUMN AND NO JET STREAK IS OVERHEAD OF OUR
REGION. THIS SUPPORTS MILD SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
CWA WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH POSSIBLE. YUMA COUNTY IS THE
EXCEPTION WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH
FORECAST. RH VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE TEENS FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA, SO YUMA COUNTY WILL LIKELY HAVE A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WARM FURTHER MONDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 70S
AS OUR REGION IS UNDER A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. RH VALUES REMAIN IN THE
TEENS FOR THE CWA, BUT WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY MILD FOR THE REGION.
GUSTS ARE FORECAST AROUND 20 MPH. IF OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE OR THE LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA CHANGES
TRACK, WE COULD SEE HIGHER WINDS INCREASING CONCERNS FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY, CONDITIONS COOL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. RH VALUES BEGIN TO
RECOVER FROM OUR PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS. RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST IN THE HIGH TEENS TO 20S. WINDS GUSTS FROM 20-35 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE, SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE A CONCERN IF
RH VALUES DO NOT RECOVER AS MUCH AS FORECAST. RH VALUES MAY ALSO
END UP LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION OCCURS FROM LAST WEEK'S SYSTEM.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTER INTO WEDNESDAY. WE SEE AN UPTICK IN PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION (POPS) OVERNIGHT AS WELL. POPS ARE AROUND 40-50%
FOR THE CWA WITH RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX AFTER SUNDOWN FORECAST.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION DUE TO THE ECMWF
SHOWING MUCAPE OVER OUR AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POPS DECREASING TO BELOW 15% BY THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 50S IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FIRE WEATHER COULD BE A CONCERN IF
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR FOR OUR AREA DUE TO RH VALUES IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND WIND GUSTS FROM 20-40 MPH POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF A HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER
DAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH POSSIBLE, ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX (GFDI)
VALUES, AND RH VALUES IN THE TEENS. THESE WILL LIKELY CHANGE
WITH THIS BEING THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT SOMETHING TO
MONITOR AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 930 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
GLD: NOW THAT MORNING FOG/STRATUS HAS SCATTERED AND LIFTED..
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
~10-20 KNOT S TO SW WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD OVER
NORTHWEST KS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND INCREASE TO 15-20
KNOTS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (~12-18Z FRI).. AS THE
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KS.
MCK: NOW THAT MORNING FOG/STRATUS HAS SCATTERED AND LIFTED, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IFR
CEILINGS MAY RETURN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 10-20 KNOT S
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.. BECOMING
VARIABLE EARLY (06-12Z) FRIDAY MORNING.. AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD OVER NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS NEAR THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD (~18Z FRI).. AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KS-NE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ041.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...VINCENT
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