426
FXUS63 KGLD 052039
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
139 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER AREA.
- A LOW CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.
- RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY WEST OF A MCCOOK TO COLBY TO CHEYENNE
WELLS LINE. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY, MAY SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY EVENING IN THE
TRI BORDER AREA (YUMA, DUNDY, CHEYENNE KS COUNTIES).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 139 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
TROUGH IN THE FOUR CORNERS. A SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED LITTLE THE
PAST 24 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY DEEPENS NEAR THE TRI BORDER AREA OF
KANSAS, COLORADO AND NEBRASKA. A DRY LINE TRAILS SOUTH FROM THE
LOW STRADDLING THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER AREA AND A WEAK
TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE TEENS AND 20S WEST OF THE
DRY LINE AND 30S AND 40S TO THE EAST. OCCASIONALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WEST OF THE DRY LINE, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE
TEENS AND WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. A NARROW BAND OF INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP JUST TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE, WITH SBCAPE
PEAKING AT AROUND 500 J/KG BY AROUND 01Z SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70
IN NORTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE MOSTLY CAPPED WITH CIN
VALUES OF 200-500 J/KG EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
DRY LINE. CAMS HAVE NO CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON THE DRY LINE AT
THIS TIME, AND EVEN IF AN UPDRAFT MANAGED TO DEVELOP
NORTHEASTERLY STORM MOTIONS AT 25-30 KTS WOULD QUICKLY TAKE IT
AWAY FROM THE DRY LINE INTO THE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. FOR THESE
REASONS, NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.
THIS EVENING, INSTABILITY INCREASES AND EXPANDS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. CAPPING CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR OBSTACLE TO ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AS WELL AS LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE ROCKIES. THE SURFACE LOW
FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OR SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH EMERGING ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO. WITH
THE INCREASE IN FORCING, THERE MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW BETWEEN
06-09Z FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
NAMNEST AND ECMWF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS SHOWING THIS, AND
BOTH HAVE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT CONVECTION INITIATING FURTHER
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT, AND THE EXPERIMENTAL RRFS
DOES HAVE INITIATION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH, BUT CHANCES ARE
PROBABLY 20-30% AT BEST. STORM MOTIONS WILL TAKE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AFTER 09Z, THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLDER AIR ENDING ANY
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP
TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND WINDY CONDITIONS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, EXPECTING TO SEE LOWS ONLY IN THE 40S AND PERHAPS A FEW
LOWER 50S, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S FURTHER WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
FRIDAY WILL BE A SOMEWHAT TRICKY DAY FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION. COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF THE AREA BY 18Z,
WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT IN THE 30S
AND 40S. FRONTAL TIMING FOR EASTERN AREAS (EAST OF A NORTON TO
GOVE LINE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS) WILL DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THOSE LOCATIONS. A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S, BUT A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
WOULD KEEP THEM IN THE 50S. CURRENT HREF PROBABILITIES ARE
RUNNING AROUND 50% FOR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 60 BEFORE 18Z,
BUT RAPIDLY DROP TO 20% BY 19Z. INDICATING A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FOR THIS REASON WILL FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
HIGHS AROUND 60. FURTHER WEST IN THE COLD AIR, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO BY 21Z. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW IN
COLORADO WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST AND COLDEST, BUT RECENT
WARMTH AND NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE MELTING ON CONTACT AND LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER EAST IN KANSAS, MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW, BUT STILL MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING, AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. PRECIPITATION
MAY START AS ALL RAIN, THEN TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
EVEN TO ALL SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON, BUT ONCE AGAIN LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION DUE TO MELTING ON CONTACT WITH THE WARM SURFACE.
DRY SLOTTING EAST OF A MCCOOK TO COLBY TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE
WILL DELINEATE A SHARP CUT OFF IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING, MOSTLY
SNOW, AND WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MAY SEE SOME
ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
YUMA/DUNDY/CHEYENNE TRI BORDER AREA WHERE MAY SEE A QUICK 1-3"
BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS OUT. SKIES CLEAR BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND LIGHT WINDS.
SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S. DESPITE THE LINGERING COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN
THE BROAD SURFACE TROUGH, TQ INDICES ARE LOW AND DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SHOWERS OR PRECIPITATION. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
PROMOTE LOW HUMIDITY, PERHAPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT
TIMES, BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT AND NOT EXPECTING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
SATURDAY, WE REMAIN IN A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES
COOL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
MILD OVERALL, BUT GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH)
VALUES ARE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
(CWA). EVEN IF SOUTHWEST WINDS FURTHER LOWER RH VALUES, MILD
WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. NBM 75TH PERCENTILE FOR 10M WINDS ARE AROUND 25 MPH,
SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
A WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
IN THE 60S TO 70S. WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY
WEAK THROUGH THE COLUMN AND NO JET STREAK IS OVERHEAD OF OUR
REGION. THIS SUPPORTS MILD SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
CWA WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH POSSIBLE. YUMA COUNTY IS THE
EXCEPTION WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH
FORECAST. RH VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE TEENS FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA, SO YUMA COUNTY WILL LIKELY HAVE A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WARM FURTHER MONDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 70S
AS OUR REGION IS UNDER A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. RH VALUES REMAIN IN THE
TEENS FOR THE CWA, BUT WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY MILD FOR THE REGION.
GUSTS ARE FORECAST AROUND 20 MPH. IF OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE OR THE LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA CHANGES
TRACK, WE COULD SEE HIGHER WINDS INCREASING CONCERNS FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY, CONDITIONS COOL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. RH VALUES BEGIN TO
RECOVER FROM OUR PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS. RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST IN THE HIGH TEENS TO 20S. WINDS GUSTS FROM 20-35 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE, SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE A CONCERN IF
RH VALUES DO NOT RECOVER AS MUCH AS FORECAST. RH VALUES MAY ALSO
END UP LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION OCCURS FROM LAST WEEK'S SYSTEM.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTER INTO WEDNESDAY. WE SEE AN UPTICK IN PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION (POPS) OVERNIGHT AS WELL. POPS ARE AROUND 40-50%
FOR THE CWA WITH RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX AFTER SUNDOWN FORECAST.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION DUE TO THE ECMWF
SHOWING MUCAPE OVER OUR AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POPS DECREASING TO BELOW 15% BY THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 50S IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FIRE WEATHER COULD BE A CONCERN IF
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR FOR OUR AREA DUE TO RH VALUES IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND WIND GUSTS FROM 20-40 MPH POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF A HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER
DAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH POSSIBLE, ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX (GFDI)
VALUES, AND RH VALUES IN THE TEENS. THESE WILL LIKELY CHANGE
WITH THIS BEING THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT SOMETHING TO
MONITOR AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 930 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
GLD: NOW THAT MORNING FOG/STRATUS HAS SCATTERED AND LIFTED..
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
~10-20 KNOT S TO SW WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD OVER
NORTHWEST KS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND INCREASE TO 15-20
KNOTS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (~12-18Z FRI).. AS THE
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KS.
MCK: NOW THAT MORNING FOG/STRATUS HAS SCATTERED AND LIFTED, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IFR
CEILINGS MAY RETURN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 10-20 KNOT S
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.. BECOMING
VARIABLE EARLY (06-12Z) FRIDAY MORNING.. AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD OVER NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS NEAR THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD (~18Z FRI).. AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KS-NE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ041.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...VINCENT
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