500
FXUS63 KGLD 052321
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
421 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER AREA.
- A LOW CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.
- RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY WEST OF A MCCOOK TO COLBY TO CHEYENNE
WELLS LINE. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY, MAY SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY EVENING IN THE
TRI BORDER AREA (YUMA, DUNDY, CHEYENNE KS COUNTIES).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 139 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
TROUGH IN THE FOUR CORNERS. A SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED LITTLE THE
PAST 24 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY DEEPENS NEAR THE TRI BORDER AREA OF
KANSAS, COLORADO AND NEBRASKA. A DRY LINE TRAILS SOUTH FROM THE
LOW STRADDLING THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER AREA AND A WEAK
TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE TEENS AND 20S WEST OF THE
DRY LINE AND 30S AND 40S TO THE EAST. OCCASIONALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WEST OF THE DRY LINE, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE
TEENS AND WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. A NARROW BAND OF INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP JUST TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE, WITH SBCAPE
PEAKING AT AROUND 500 J/KG BY AROUND 01Z SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70
IN NORTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE MOSTLY CAPPED WITH CIN
VALUES OF 200-500 J/KG EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
DRY LINE. CAMS HAVE NO CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON THE DRY LINE AT
THIS TIME, AND EVEN IF AN UPDRAFT MANAGED TO DEVELOP
NORTHEASTERLY STORM MOTIONS AT 25-30 KTS WOULD QUICKLY TAKE IT
AWAY FROM THE DRY LINE INTO THE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. FOR THESE
REASONS, NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.
THIS EVENING, INSTABILITY INCREASES AND EXPANDS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. CAPPING CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR OBSTACLE TO ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AS WELL AS LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE ROCKIES. THE SURFACE LOW
FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OR SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH EMERGING ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO. WITH
THE INCREASE IN FORCING, THERE MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW BETWEEN
06-09Z FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
NAMNEST AND ECMWF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS SHOWING THIS, AND
BOTH HAVE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT CONVECTION INITIATING FURTHER
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT, AND THE EXPERIMENTAL RRFS
DOES HAVE INITIATION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH, BUT CHANCES ARE
PROBABLY 20-30% AT BEST. STORM MOTIONS WILL TAKE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AFTER 09Z, THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLDER AIR ENDING ANY
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP
TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND WINDY CONDITIONS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, EXPECTING TO SEE LOWS ONLY IN THE 40S AND PERHAPS A FEW
LOWER 50S, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S FURTHER WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
FRIDAY WILL BE A SOMEWHAT TRICKY DAY FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION. COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF THE AREA BY 18Z,
WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT IN THE 30S
AND 40S. FRONTAL TIMING FOR EASTERN AREAS (EAST OF A NORTON TO
GOVE LINE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS) WILL DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THOSE LOCATIONS. A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S, BUT A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
WOULD KEEP THEM IN THE 50S. CURRENT HREF PROBABILITIES ARE
RUNNING AROUND 50% FOR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 60 BEFORE 18Z,
BUT RAPIDLY DROP TO 20% BY 19Z. INDICATING A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FOR THIS REASON WILL FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
HIGHS AROUND 60. FURTHER WEST IN THE COLD AIR, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO BY 21Z. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW IN
COLORADO WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST AND COLDEST, BUT RECENT
WARMTH AND NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE MELTING ON CONTACT AND LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER EAST IN KANSAS, MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW, BUT STILL MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING, AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. PRECIPITATION
MAY START AS ALL RAIN, THEN TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
EVEN TO ALL SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON, BUT ONCE AGAIN LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION DUE TO MELTING ON CONTACT WITH THE WARM SURFACE.
DRY SLOTTING EAST OF A MCCOOK TO COLBY TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE
WILL DELINEATE A SHARP CUT OFF IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING, MOSTLY
SNOW, AND WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MAY SEE SOME
ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
YUMA/DUNDY/CHEYENNE TRI BORDER AREA WHERE MAY SEE A QUICK 1-3"
BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS OUT. SKIES CLEAR BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND LIGHT WINDS.
SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S. DESPITE THE LINGERING COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN
THE BROAD SURFACE TROUGH, TQ INDICES ARE LOW AND DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SHOWERS OR PRECIPITATION. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
PROMOTE LOW HUMIDITY, PERHAPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT
TIMES, BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT AND NOT EXPECTING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
A SECLUDED 500-MB LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A HIGHLY
DISTURBED JET STREAM TO THE NORTH. RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THE SECLUDED
LOW FAVORS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO EXIST IN THE FOUR-CORNERS
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE JET STREAM FLOW LOOKS TO AID IN
INTENSIFYING A SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. AS THIS
OCCURS, WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WOULD OVERSPREAD THE
CWA. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A
BYPRODUCT OF THIS PATTERN. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TO MID-
TEENS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BOTH DAYS, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-60S TO LOWER-70S SUNDAY, AND MID TO UPPER-
70S MONDAY. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THESE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES, CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER IS NOT YET A MAJOR CONCERN, AS WIND GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO MAX OUT AROUND 20 MPH BOTH DAYS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WOULD
SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS FORECAST, AS NBM 90TH PERCENTILE SOLUTIONS MUST
BE EXPERIENCED IN ORDER TO GET 25-30 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS BROAD
PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MIXING OF STRONGER WIND
GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE, WHILE POSSIBLE, IS NOT LIKELY, AS WINDS
AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER BOTH DAYS MAX OUT IN THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS
TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW (AROUND 5-10%) THAT A RED FLAG WARNING
WILL BE NEEDED EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
BY MONDAY EVENING, A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
UNITED STATES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY ALLOW THE SECLUDED LOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TO BE REABSORBED INTO THE JET STREAM
FLOW. THESE TWO FEATURES LOOK TO AID IN THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE
LOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE GREAT PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM MAY STILL PERMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER-70S ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION TUESDAY, THOUGH
PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST
SUGGESTS IT IS MOST LIKELY TUESDAY BETWEEN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
HOURS. RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE AT
LEAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THOUGH AN INCOMING COLD
FRONT COULD PROMOTE A TRANSITION TO SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE
UPPER-20S TO MID-30S TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO, SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS EXPERIENCING
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THIS RANGE. THESE LOCATIONS WOULD BE
MOST FAVORABLE TO EXPERIENCE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IF THE TRANSITION
CAN OCCUR.
MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS
TROUGHING MAY REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST COOLER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
THOUGH AN INCOMING RIDGE MAY ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO REESTABLISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE CWA. EVEN
SO, TIMING OF THIS PROCESS IS UNCERTAIN, IN ADDITION TO THE STRENGTH
OR PRESENCE OF THE INCOMING RIDGE. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE
UPPER-50S TO LOWER-60S WEDNESDAY. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE
FAVORED GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S THURSDAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE MID TO UPPER-TEENS ARE POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS 25-40 MPH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 414 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
LOW CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING,
ARRIVING AT KMCK BY AROUND 02-03Z AND AT KGLD AFTER 06Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY
A PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG WHICH WILL LAST 2-4 HOURS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST UP
TO 25 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY FRIDAY. LOW CLOUDS
ARE ALSO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR CEILING PREVAILING.
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD BY MID
AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY REDUCE FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO IFR.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ041.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
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