334
FXUS63 KGLD 060634
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1134 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOW CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.
- RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY WEST OF A MCCOOK TO COLBY TO CHEYENNE
WELLS LINE. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY, MAY SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY EVENING IN THE
TRI BORDER AREA (YUMA, DUNDY, CHEYENNE KS COUNTIES).
- WARM AND DRY LATE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 557 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 139 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
TROUGH IN THE FOUR CORNERS. A SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED LITTLE THE
PAST 24 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY DEEPENS NEAR THE TRI BORDER AREA OF
KANSAS, COLORADO AND NEBRASKA. A DRY LINE TRAILS SOUTH FROM THE
LOW STRADDLING THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER AREA AND A WEAK
TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE TEENS AND 20S WEST OF THE
DRY LINE AND 30S AND 40S TO THE EAST. OCCASIONALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WEST OF THE DRY LINE, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE
TEENS AND WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. A NARROW BAND OF INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP JUST TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE, WITH SBCAPE
PEAKING AT AROUND 500 J/KG BY AROUND 01Z SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70
IN NORTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE MOSTLY CAPPED WITH CIN
VALUES OF 200-500 J/KG EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
DRY LINE. CAMS HAVE NO CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON THE DRY LINE AT
THIS TIME, AND EVEN IF AN UPDRAFT MANAGED TO DEVELOP
NORTHEASTERLY STORM MOTIONS AT 25-30 KTS WOULD QUICKLY TAKE IT
AWAY FROM THE DRY LINE INTO THE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. FOR THESE
REASONS, NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.
THIS EVENING, INSTABILITY INCREASES AND EXPANDS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. CAPPING CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR OBSTACLE TO ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AS WELL AS LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE ROCKIES. THE SURFACE LOW
FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OR SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH EMERGING ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO. WITH
THE INCREASE IN FORCING, THERE MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW BETWEEN
06-09Z FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
NAMNEST AND ECMWF ARE ABOUT THE ONLY MODELS SHOWING THIS, AND
BOTH HAVE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT CONVECTION INITIATING FURTHER
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT, AND THE EXPERIMENTAL RRFS
DOES HAVE INITIATION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH, BUT CHANCES ARE
PROBABLY 20-30% AT BEST. STORM MOTIONS WILL TAKE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. AFTER 09Z, THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLDER AIR ENDING ANY
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP
TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND WINDY CONDITIONS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, EXPECTING TO SEE LOWS ONLY IN THE 40S AND PERHAPS A FEW
LOWER 50S, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S FURTHER WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
FRIDAY WILL BE A SOMEWHAT TRICKY DAY FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION. COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF THE AREA BY 18Z,
WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT IN THE 30S
AND 40S. FRONTAL TIMING FOR EASTERN AREAS (EAST OF A NORTON TO
GOVE LINE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS) WILL DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THOSE LOCATIONS. A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S, BUT A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
WOULD KEEP THEM IN THE 50S. CURRENT HREF PROBABILITIES ARE
RUNNING AROUND 50% FOR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 60 BEFORE 18Z,
BUT RAPIDLY DROP TO 20% BY 19Z. INDICATING A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FOR THIS REASON WILL FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
HIGHS AROUND 60. FURTHER WEST IN THE COLD AIR, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO BY 21Z. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW IN
COLORADO WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST AND COLDEST, BUT RECENT
WARMTH AND NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE MELTING ON CONTACT AND LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER EAST IN KANSAS, MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW, BUT STILL MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING, AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. PRECIPITATION
MAY START AS ALL RAIN, THEN TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
EVEN TO ALL SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON, BUT ONCE AGAIN LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION DUE TO MELTING ON CONTACT WITH THE WARM SURFACE.
DRY SLOTTING EAST OF A MCCOOK TO COLBY TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE
WILL DELINEATE A SHARP CUT OFF IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING, MOSTLY
SNOW, AND WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MAY SEE SOME
ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
YUMA/DUNDY/CHEYENNE TRI BORDER AREA WHERE MAY SEE A QUICK 1-3"
BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS OUT. SKIES CLEAR BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND LIGHT WINDS.
SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S. DESPITE THE LINGERING COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN
THE BROAD SURFACE TROUGH, TQ INDICES ARE LOW AND DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SHOWERS OR PRECIPITATION. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
PROMOTE LOW HUMIDITY, PERHAPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT
TIMES, BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT AND NOT EXPECTING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY, A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW FOR THE
REGION. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSISTS THROUGH AROUND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO HAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS. HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS AS WELL BUT
CURRENTLY NOT SEEING ANY SIGNAL FOR WINDS AT THIS TIME. AS THE
DAYS ARE GETTING LONGER, MIXING SHOULD CLIMATOLOGICALLY GET
STRONGER AND DEEPER SO SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH MAY OCCUR.
THE DAY CURRENTLY WATCHING FOR A RELATIVE "BETTER" POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS MONDAY AS THE 700MB FLOW HAS AROUND 25
KNOTS IN IT WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN WITH CURRENT
MIXING HEIGHTS FORECAST AROUND 7000 FEET.
AS MENTIONED A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. CURRENT NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH IT AT THIS TIME. A BRIEF COOL DOWN
INTO THE 50S IS CURRENTLY FORECAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WARMUP,
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WARMUP OCCURS LATE WEEK. FIRE WEATHER
MAY BECOME A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED LATE WEEK AS WELL AS SURFACE
TROUGHING PROMOTES VERY WARM TEMPERATURES PERHAPS INTO THE 80S
AND LOW HUMIDITY AT LEAST IN THE LOW TEENS. SOME GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWS A 30-40 KNOT 700MB JET IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO BE MIXED DOWN. BUT TIME IS TIME SO WE WILL SEE HOW
THESE TRENDS OCCUR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
KGLD IS FORECAST TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN, AROUND 8-11Z. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO
IFR/LIFR AND A WAVE OF FOG MAY ALSO DROP VISIBILITIES TO IFR.
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS SHOULD BOUNCE BACK TO MVFR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, AND LIKELY REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. KMCK WILL SEE IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT,
COMING BACK UP TO MVFR AROUND 16Z TOMORROW MORNING.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST, BUT
HOW WIDESPREAD AND ITS INTENSITY IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION.
AS IT STANDS, THE PRECIPITATION POSES THE BIGGEST THREAT AROUND
22-3Z FOR KGLD AND 0-4Z FOR KMCK DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING SNOW.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...CA
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