483
FXUS63 KGLD 061135
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
435 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOW CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.
- THERE'S A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SNOW SQUALL IN NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES UNDER
A MILE AND QUICKLY LEAD TO SLICK CONDITIONS.
- SNOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD UP TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IN YUMA COUNTY.
- WARM AND DRY LATE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 142 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
TONIGHT, THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION HAS DROPPED TO BASICALLY NOTHING,
DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING. HOWEVER, WITH THE COLD FRONT, WE ARE
SEEING STRATUS AND BRIEFLY DENSE FOG WITH THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WARM THIS MORNING, LIKELY STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE WESTERN CWA AND IN THE 40S FOR THE EASTERN
CWA.
BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT, DRIVEN BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER
AND OUT OF THE CWA, WE'RE EXPECTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATIFORM
RAIN THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE HIGHEST
ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 36, POTENTIALLY REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS
U.S. 40. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
AND QPF WILL BE LIGHT. WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS, AND PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S IN YUMA COUNTY, BUT SOUTHEASTERN GOVE LOOKS TO WARM
TO AROUND 60.
AROUND 19-22Z THIS AFTERNOON, A SECOND COLD FRONT FROM AN INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS THE MORE
CONCERNING FRONT. WITH IT, WE'RE EXPECTING STRONG CAA, QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING THE P-TYPE TO BE SNOW, OR A WINTRY MIX. LOOKING AT
SOUNDINGS, DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE COOLS AND IF A WARM
NOSE CAN LINGER, SLEET WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY WINTRY MIX P-TYPE
BEFORE THE COLUMN COOLS AND ONLY SNOW FALLS. THIS TRANSITION COULD
START AS EARLY AS 19Z IN THE FAR WESTERN CWA, BUT BY 2Z, ONLY SNOW
IS EXPECTED. THE SLEET AND POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE RIGHT AFTER
RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING COULD EASILY LEAD TO ICING CONDITIONS.
WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO AROUND
20 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 35 KTS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
ADJACENT COUNTIES TO THE EAST. LOOKING AT REFS AND HREF, SOME
LIGHT/MODEST WINTER INSTABILITY, INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR A SNOW
SQUALL. THESE TWO THINGS COMBINED LEAD TO A NOTABLE THREAT OF
BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES UNDER 1 MILE. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING
AT REFS AND HREF GUIDANCE, THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SNOW SQUALL WILL BE
BETWEEN 21-0Z IN YUMA AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES. BLOWING SNOW LOOKS
TO LINGER UNTIL AROUND 3-6Z TOMORROW NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, THE NAMNEST AND RAP ARE SHOWING A SINGLE CELL
DEVELOPING AROUND GOVE COUNTY AROUND 21Z. LOOKING AT THEIR
SOUNDINGS, IF THIS CELL DEVELOPS, IT COULD (20% CHANCE) PRODUCE
THUNDER-SLEET AS IT QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO INSTANTLY SLICK
ROADS, IF IT OCCURS.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BETWEEN 4-9Z. STORM TOTAL
SNOW HAS SHOT UP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, LARGELY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENT. IN NORTHWESTERN YUMA COUNTY, 2-3
INCHES IS CURRENTLY FORECAST, BUT POCKETS UP TO 5 INCHES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. IF THE POTENTIAL FOR 3+ INCHES CONTINUES TO INCREASE, A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. OUTSIDE OF YUMA COUNTY,
SNOWFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM A TRACE TO 1 INCH ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF
A LINE FROM CHEYENNE WELLS, CO TO MCCOOK, NE. THIS SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE A WET, HEAVY SNOW. COMBINED WITH THE WIND, IT COULD CAUSE SNOW
TO STICK ON NORTH-FACING STRUCTURES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE UPPER TEENS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND
INTO THE MID 20S FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
SATURDAY MORNING, THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA AND POP REMAIN
BELOW 10% FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM. HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS COOLING INTO THE 20S. COMPARED
TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SATURDAY HAS NOT A LOT GOING ON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY, A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW FOR THE
REGION. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSISTS THROUGH AROUND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO HAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS. HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS AS WELL BUT
CURRENTLY NOT SEEING ANY SIGNAL FOR WINDS AT THIS TIME. AS THE
DAYS ARE GETTING LONGER, MIXING SHOULD CLIMATOLOGICALLY GET
STRONGER AND DEEPER SO SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH MAY OCCUR.
THE DAY CURRENTLY WATCHING FOR A RELATIVE "BETTER" POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS MONDAY AS THE 700MB FLOW HAS AROUND 25
KNOTS IN IT WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN WITH CURRENT
MIXING HEIGHTS FORECAST AROUND 7000 FEET.
AS MENTIONED A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. CURRENT NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH IT AT THIS TIME. A BRIEF COOL DOWN
INTO THE 50S IS CURRENTLY FORECAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WARMUP,
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WARMUP OCCURS LATE WEEK. FIRE WEATHER
MAY BECOME A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED LATE WEEK AS WELL AS SURFACE
TROUGHING PROMOTES VERY WARM TEMPERATURES PERHAPS INTO THE 80S
AND LOW HUMIDITY AT LEAST IN THE LOW TEENS. SOME GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWS A 30-40 KNOT 700MB JET IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO BE MIXED DOWN. BUT TIME IS TIME SO WE WILL SEE HOW
THESE TRENDS OCCUR.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
MINIMUM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OVER BY 1330Z AT KMCK.
LIFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT 1730Z WHEN MVFR CEILINGS
ARE FORECAST TO TAKE OVER AND LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER
THE PERIOD. RAIN BECOMING SNOW WILL MOVE IN SOME TIME BETWEEN
22-1Z, BUT SHOULD END BY 10Z.
AT KGLD VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR UNLESS SNOW HITS THE
AIRPORT AROUND 23-5Z. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 13-14Z
AND REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANY LOW CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WILL HAVE LOW ICING POTENTIAL, BUT
THE ICING RISK INCREASES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BE PREPARED
FOR NORTHERLY GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...CA
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