002
FXUS63 KGLD 061832
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1132 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR A SNOW SQUALL TO DEVELOP IN
NORTHEAST CO THIS AFT-EVE, MAINLY IN YUMA/KIT CARSON BETWEEN
3-10 PM MST. 1-3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW, N WIND GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH AND SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY (BELOW 1
MILE) WITH BLOWING SNOW MAY CREATE LOCALLY DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.
- WARM AND DRY LATE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 142 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
TONIGHT, THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION HAS DROPPED TO BASICALLY
NOTHING, DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING. HOWEVER, WITH THE COLD FRONT,
WE ARE SEEING STRATUS AND BRIEFLY DENSE FOG WITH THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WARM THIS MORNING,
LIKELY STAYING ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE WESTERN CWA AND IN THE 40S
FOR THE EASTERN CWA.
BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT, DRIVEN BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
OVER AND OUT OF THE CWA, WE'RE EXPECTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATIFORM RAIN THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. POPS
ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 36, POTENTIALLY REACHING AS
FAR SOUTH AS U.S. 40. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION AND QPF WILL BE LIGHT. WITH THE NORTHERLY
WINDS, AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN YUMA
COUNTY, BUT SOUTHEASTERN GOVE LOOKS TO WARM TO AROUND 60.
AROUND 19-22Z THIS AFTERNOON, A SECOND COLD FRONT FROM AN
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA.
THIS IS THE MORE CONCERNING FRONT. WITH IT, WE'RE EXPECTING
STRONG CAA, QUICKLY TRANSITIONING THE P-TYPE TO BE SNOW, OR A
WINTRY MIX. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS, DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SURFACE COOLS AND IF A WARM NOSE CAN LINGER, SLEET WOULD BE THE
MOST LIKELY WINTRY MIX P-TYPE BEFORE THE COLUMN COOLS AND ONLY
SNOW FALLS. THIS TRANSITION COULD START AS EARLY AS 19Z IN THE
FAR WESTERN CWA, BUT BY 2Z, ONLY SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE SLEET AND
POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE RIGHT AFTER RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING
COULD EASILY LEAD TO ICING CONDITIONS.
WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO
AROUND 20 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 35 KTS IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND ADJACENT COUNTIES TO THE EAST. LOOKING AT REFS AND
HREF, SOME LIGHT/MODEST WINTER INSTABILITY, INDICATING A
POTENTIAL FOR A SNOW SQUALL. THESE TWO THINGS COMBINED LEAD TO A
NOTABLE THREAT OF BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES UNDER 1
MILE. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT REFS AND HREF GUIDANCE, THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A SNOW SQUALL WILL BE BETWEEN 21-0Z IN YUMA AND
SURROUNDING COUNTIES. BLOWING SNOW LOOKS TO LINGER UNTIL AROUND
3-6Z TOMORROW NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, THE NAMNEST AND RAP ARE SHOWING A SINGLE CELL
DEVELOPING AROUND GOVE COUNTY AROUND 21Z. LOOKING AT THEIR
SOUNDINGS, IF THIS CELL DEVELOPS, IT COULD (20% CHANCE) PRODUCE
THUNDER-SLEET AS IT QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST WITH THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO INSTANTLY
SLICK ROADS, IF IT OCCURS.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BETWEEN 4-9Z. STORM
TOTAL SNOW HAS SHOT UP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, LARGELY DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENT. IN NORTHWESTERN YUMA COUNTY,
2-3 INCHES IS CURRENTLY FORECAST, BUT POCKETS UP TO 5 INCHES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF THE POTENTIAL FOR 3+ INCHES CONTINUES TO
INCREASE, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. OUTSIDE OF
YUMA COUNTY, SNOWFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM A TRACE TO 1 INCH ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CHEYENNE WELLS, CO TO MCCOOK, NE.
THIS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE A WET, HEAVY SNOW. COMBINED WITH THE
WIND, IT COULD CAUSE SNOW TO STICK ON NORTH-FACING STRUCTURES.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND INTO THE MID 20S FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
SATURDAY MORNING, THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA AND POP
REMAIN BELOW 10% FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY LOOK TO WARM INTO THE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS COOLING
INTO THE 20S. COMPARED TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SATURDAY HAS NOT
A LOT GOING ON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY, A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST
TO BE OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW FOR THE
REGION. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSISTS THROUGH AROUND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO HAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS. HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS AS WELL BUT
CURRENTLY NOT SEEING ANY SIGNAL FOR WINDS AT THIS TIME. AS THE
DAYS ARE GETTING LONGER, MIXING SHOULD CLIMATOLOGICALLY GET
STRONGER AND DEEPER SO SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH MAY OCCUR.
THE DAY CURRENTLY WATCHING FOR A RELATIVE "BETTER" POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS MONDAY AS THE 700MB FLOW HAS AROUND 25
KNOTS IN IT WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN WITH CURRENT
MIXING HEIGHTS FORECAST AROUND 7000 FEET.
AS MENTIONED A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. CURRENT NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH IT AT THIS TIME. A BRIEF COOL DOWN
INTO THE 50S IS CURRENTLY FORECAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WARMUP,
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WARMUP OCCURS LATE WEEK. FIRE WEATHER
MAY BECOME A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED LATE WEEK AS WELL AS SURFACE
TROUGHING PROMOTES VERY WARM TEMPERATURES PERHAPS INTO THE 80S
AND LOW HUMIDITY AT LEAST IN THE LOW TEENS. SOME GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWS A 30-40 KNOT 700MB JET IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO BE MIXED DOWN. BUT TIME IS TIME SO WE WILL SEE HOW
THESE TRENDS OCCUR.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
ONGOING MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. A
PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AND/OR LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING (01-05Z SAT). CEILINGS WILL LIFT/SCATTER LATE TONIGHT,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING.
15-25 KNOT N WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BREEZIER (20-30 KNOT) N WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. N WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
NNW AND NW OVERNIGHT, DECREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BY SUNRISE SAT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...VINCENT
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