566
FXUS63 KGLD 062019
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
119 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR A SNOW SQUALL TO DEVELOP IN
NORTHEAST CO THIS AFT-EVE, MAINLY IN YUMA/KIT CARSON BETWEEN
3-10 PM MST. 1-3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW, N WIND GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH AND SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY (BELOW 1
MILE) WITH BLOWING SNOW MAY CREATE LOCALLY DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.
- WARM AND DRY LATE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 142 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
TONIGHT, THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION HAS DROPPED TO BASICALLY
NOTHING, DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING. HOWEVER, WITH THE COLD FRONT,
WE ARE SEEING STRATUS AND BRIEFLY DENSE FOG WITH THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WARM THIS MORNING,
LIKELY STAYING ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE WESTERN CWA AND IN THE 40S
FOR THE EASTERN CWA.
BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT, DRIVEN BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
OVER AND OUT OF THE CWA, WE'RE EXPECTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATIFORM RAIN THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. POPS
ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 36, POTENTIALLY REACHING AS
FAR SOUTH AS U.S. 40. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION AND QPF WILL BE LIGHT. WITH THE NORTHERLY
WINDS, AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN YUMA
COUNTY, BUT SOUTHEASTERN GOVE LOOKS TO WARM TO AROUND 60.
AROUND 19-22Z THIS AFTERNOON, A SECOND COLD FRONT FROM AN
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA.
THIS IS THE MORE CONCERNING FRONT. WITH IT, WE'RE EXPECTING
STRONG CAA, QUICKLY TRANSITIONING THE P-TYPE TO BE SNOW, OR A
WINTRY MIX. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS, DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SURFACE COOLS AND IF A WARM NOSE CAN LINGER, SLEET WOULD BE THE
MOST LIKELY WINTRY MIX P-TYPE BEFORE THE COLUMN COOLS AND ONLY
SNOW FALLS. THIS TRANSITION COULD START AS EARLY AS 19Z IN THE
FAR WESTERN CWA, BUT BY 2Z, ONLY SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE SLEET AND
POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE RIGHT AFTER RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING
COULD EASILY LEAD TO ICING CONDITIONS.
WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO
AROUND 20 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 35 KTS IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND ADJACENT COUNTIES TO THE EAST. LOOKING AT REFS AND
HREF, SOME LIGHT/MODEST WINTER INSTABILITY, INDICATING A
POTENTIAL FOR A SNOW SQUALL. THESE TWO THINGS COMBINED LEAD TO A
NOTABLE THREAT OF BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES UNDER 1
MILE. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT REFS AND HREF GUIDANCE, THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A SNOW SQUALL WILL BE BETWEEN 21-0Z IN YUMA AND
SURROUNDING COUNTIES. BLOWING SNOW LOOKS TO LINGER UNTIL AROUND
3-6Z TOMORROW NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, THE NAMNEST AND RAP ARE SHOWING A SINGLE CELL
DEVELOPING AROUND GOVE COUNTY AROUND 21Z. LOOKING AT THEIR
SOUNDINGS, IF THIS CELL DEVELOPS, IT COULD (20% CHANCE) PRODUCE
THUNDER-SLEET AS IT QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST WITH THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO INSTANTLY
SLICK ROADS, IF IT OCCURS.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BETWEEN 4-9Z. STORM
TOTAL SNOW HAS SHOT UP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, LARGELY DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENT. IN NORTHWESTERN YUMA COUNTY,
2-3 INCHES IS CURRENTLY FORECAST, BUT POCKETS UP TO 5 INCHES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF THE POTENTIAL FOR 3+ INCHES CONTINUES TO
INCREASE, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. OUTSIDE OF
YUMA COUNTY, SNOWFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM A TRACE TO 1 INCH ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CHEYENNE WELLS, CO TO MCCOOK, NE.
THIS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE A WET, HEAVY SNOW. COMBINED WITH THE
WIND, IT COULD CAUSE SNOW TO STICK ON NORTH-FACING STRUCTURES.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND INTO THE MID 20S FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
SATURDAY MORNING, THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA AND POP
REMAIN BELOW 10% FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY LOOK TO WARM INTO THE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS COOLING
INTO THE 20S. COMPARED TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SATURDAY HAS NOT
A LOT GOING ON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
A SECLUDED UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES AND BAJA CALIFORNIA MONDAY MORNING, AS A BROAD,
DEEPENING TROUGH ENTERS THE UNITED STATES FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AS THIS TAKES PLACE, A SURFACE LOW IS FAVORED TO SET UP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS MAY BE OUT
OF THE WEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT FLIP SOUTHERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, WARM, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER-70S AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TO MID-TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER IS NOT YET A MAJOR CONCERN, AS WIND GUSTS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MEET CRITERIA FOR THE HAZARD (25 MPH WINDS OR
GREATER). HOWEVER, GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIXED LAYER UP TO ABOUT 1.5
KM, WHICH COULD ALLOW STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER MAY REACH A SUSTAINED 15-20
KNOTS, WHICH COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 25 MPH OR GREATER IF THEY
REACH THE SURFACE. EVEN SO, NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ABOUT A 50% CHANCE
OR LESS FOR WIND GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE TO BE EXPERIENCED IN
EASTERN COLORADO, AND EVEN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA. THESE GUSTS, IF THEY CAN OCCUR, ARE FORECAST TO BE BRIEF
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE SHORT SPURTS OF LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE, CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG
WARNING BEING NEEDED MONDAY SITS AROUND 5-10%.
AS THE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS SOUTHEAST MONDAY
EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY, THE SECLUDED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES AND BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION LOOKS TO BEGIN MOVING EASTWARD AS
IT GETS REABSORBED INTO THE MAIN JET STREAM FLOW. THIS IS
INTRODUCING SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST, AS RIDGING OUT AHEAD
OF THE FORMERLY SECLUDED LOW COMPETES WITH COLD AIR FROM THE
DIGGING TROUGH. FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER-60S TO MID-70S, THOUGH NBM 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE
DIFFERENCES FOR MAX TEMPERATURE ARE 15-20 DEGREES ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WOULD INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
5-10 DEGREES HIGHER OR LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. SHOULD
THE COLD FRONT REACH THE FORECAST REGION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS, COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THIS RANGE MAY BE EXPERIENCED. THE
OPPOSITE IS TRUE IF THE PATTERN PROGRESSES SLOWER AND ALLOWS
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, AS BOTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES
MOVE EASTWARD, THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS CENTERING ON TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR, THOUGH COULD
EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN IS THE FAVORED PRECIPITATION
TYPE, THOUGH WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD BE EXPERIENCED
OVERNIGHT IF TEMPERATURES CAN DROP BELOW FREEZING. FORECASTED
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE MID-20S TO LOW-30S.
TROUGHING IS FAVORED OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS STILL IN PLACE FROM THE COLD FRONT. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER-50S. HOWEVER,
RIDGING UPSTREAM OF THESE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES MAY ALLOW A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TIMING ON THIS
WIND SHIFT IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. IF THIS PROCESS CAN OCCUR DURING
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY INCREASE
AROUND 5 DEGREES, MOST PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO, FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS IS
REPRESENTED IN 10-13 DEGREE DIFFERENCES IN THE 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE
MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WARM, DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION
WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD AND A SURFACE CYCLONE MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE
LOW TO MID-70S THURSDAY, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO
UPPER-TEENS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN, AS WIND
GUSTS 20-30 KTS (23-35 MPH) ARE POSSIBLE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOW TO MID-TEENS, AND WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-
35 KTS (23-40 MPH), WHICH COULD ONCE AGAIN CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED UPON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
ONGOING MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. A
PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AND/OR LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING (01-05Z SAT). CEILINGS WILL LIFT/SCATTER LATE TONIGHT,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING.
15-25 KNOT N WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BREEZIER (20-30 KNOT) N WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. N WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
NNW AND NW OVERNIGHT, DECREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BY SUNRISE SAT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
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