714
FXUS63 KGLD 070512
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1012 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND NORTHWEST AT
10-15 MPH.
- WARM AND DRY LATE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE SNOW THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER
HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS THE UPPER TROUGH HAS BEEN SPLITTING.
MEANWHILE, HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
NEAR THE SURFACE. WITH THE HIGH CENTER BEING SOMEWHAT SMALL, A
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD LINGER AND KEEP WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY, THE SPLIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO HAVE AN
UPPER LOW MOVE INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH WAVE
CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. WITH THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE
AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE, TOMORROW SHOULD BE A BIT MILD WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S UNDERNEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS,
BUT NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
BROADENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST TO KEEP WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT AN ENFORCING WAVE IN THE TROUGH MIGHT
DROP THE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA A LITTLE SOUTH, WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH FOR LOCALES NEAR THE TRI-
STATE BORDER. SATURDAY NIGHT, THE MILD CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO NEAR 30 UNDERNEATH CLEAR
SKIES AND WITH WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH.
SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BUT ALMOST ZONAL. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM MORE INTO
THE 70S. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO HELP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LOWER INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN UNLIKELY THOUGH AS BROAD LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH PLAINS,
LEADING TO WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH. NOT MUCH IS FORECAST TO CHANGE
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE. WITH THIS, WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
30S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
A SECLUDED UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND BAJA CALIFORNIA MONDAY MORNING, AS A
BROAD, DEEPENING TROUGH ENTERS THE UNITED STATES FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS TAKES PLACE, A SURFACE LOW IS FAVORED
TO SET UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE
WINDS MAY BE OUT OF THE WEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT FLIP
SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, WARM, DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORED MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER-70S
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TO MID-TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS NOT YET A MAJOR CONCERN, AS
WIND GUSTS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MEET CRITERIA FOR THE
HAZARD (25 MPH WINDS OR GREATER). HOWEVER, GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MIXED LAYER UP TO ABOUT 1.5 KM, WHICH COULD ALLOW STRONGER WINDS
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
MAY REACH A SUSTAINED 15-20 KNOTS, WHICH COULD PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS 25 MPH OR GREATER IF THEY REACH THE SURFACE. EVEN SO, NBM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ABOUT A 50% CHANCE OR LESS FOR WIND GUSTS OF
THIS MAGNITUDE TO BE EXPERIENCED IN EASTERN COLORADO, AND EVEN
LESS OF A CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE TRI- STATE AREA. THESE
GUSTS, IF THEY CAN OCCUR, ARE FORECAST TO BE BRIEF DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE SHORT SPURTS OF LOCALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE, CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING
BEING NEEDED MONDAY SITS AROUND 5-10%.
AS THE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS SOUTHEAST MONDAY
EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY, THE SECLUDED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES AND BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION LOOKS TO BEGIN MOVING
EASTWARD AS IT GETS REABSORBED INTO THE MAIN JET STREAM FLOW.
THIS IS INTRODUCING SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST, AS
RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THE FORMERLY SECLUDED LOW COMPETES WITH
COLD AIR FROM THE DIGGING TROUGH. FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER-60S TO MID-70S, THOUGH NBM 75TH-25TH
PERCENTILE DIFFERENCES FOR MAX TEMPERATURE ARE 15-20 DEGREES
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WOULD INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES HIGHER OR LOWER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. SHOULD THE COLD FRONT REACH THE FORECAST REGION DURING
THE MORNING HOURS, COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THIS RANGE MAY BE
EXPERIENCED. THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IF THE PATTERN PROGRESSES
SLOWER AND ALLOWS SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, AS BOTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
FEATURES MOVE EASTWARD, THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS CENTERING ON TUESDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT AS THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR,
THOUGH COULD EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN IS THE FAVORED
PRECIPITATION TYPE, THOUGH WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD BE
EXPERIENCED OVERNIGHT IF TEMPERATURES CAN DROP BELOW FREEZING.
FORECASTED LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE MID-20S TO LOW-30S.
TROUGHING IS FAVORED OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS STILL IN PLACE FROM THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER-50S. HOWEVER, RIDGING UPSTREAM OF THESE UPPER-LEVEL
FEATURES MAY ALLOW A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TIMING ON THIS WIND SHIFT IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN. IF THIS PROCESS CAN OCCUR DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THE AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY INCREASE AROUND 5
DEGREES, MOST PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO,
FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS IS
REPRESENTED IN 10-13 DEGREE DIFFERENCES IN THE 75TH-25TH
PERCENTILE MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WARM, DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD AND A SURFACE CYCLONE MOVING
EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID-70S THURSDAY, WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO UPPER-TEENS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN, AS WIND GUSTS 20-30 KTS (23-35 MPH) ARE
POSSIBLE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TO MID-TEENS,
AND WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20- 35 KTS (23-40
MPH), WHICH COULD ONCE AGAIN CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED UPON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... CEILINGS AROUND 1000-2200 FEET ARE FORECAST
THROUGH ABOUT 7Z AS THE LAST OF SOME SNOW AND LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN GUSTING TO 20-30 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT SHOULD WEAKEN
AROUND 10Z. THE REST OF THE PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH CLEARING SKIES. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE AROUND
10-15 KTS, LOWERING TO AROUND 5-10 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
00Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...KAK
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